Nice v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 21 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 13
On target
7 – 11
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.96
Goals − xG
-0.36 – +1.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
31.3%
Draw
21.3%
Marseille win
47.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDDLDDL last 10
scored 5
from 10.6 xG
conceded 15
from 20.4 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLWLDLWWWL last 10
scored 14
from 22.5 xG
conceded 14
from 14.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.49 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.36 xGMarseille 3.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Salis Abdul Samed |
| 10' |
 Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.19 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Emerson |
| 10' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 10' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.73 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Benjamin Pavard |
| 15' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 16' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 17' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juma Bah |
| 22' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 30' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 32' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Igor Paixão |
| 41' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 44' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 45' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Mendy |
| 45' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 47' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 49' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leonardo Balerdi |
| 57' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 62' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sofiane Diop |
| 65' |
Nice |
Kojo Peprah Oppong | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 71' |
Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 73' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 77' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jeffrey de Lange |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Paixão AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.09 | 1.01 |
| Mason Greenwood AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 1.56 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.94 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.73 | 1.04 |
| Jeffrey de Lange GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1.24 |
| Arthur Vermeeren DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 82 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 1.80 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.02 |
| Angel Gomes AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| CJ Egan-Riley Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Neal Maupay Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Bard DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.61 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Charles Vanhoutte MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho FWR | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 0.67 |
| Sofiane Diop FWL | 82 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.70 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Salis Abdul Samed MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.35 |
| Morgan Sanson Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ali Abdi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernard Nguene Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |