Nice v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 4 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 8
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.19 – +1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
72.8%
Draw
18.0%
Nantes win
9.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.63–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 2.19 xGNantes 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 9' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Nantes |
Douglas Augusto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Moses Simon |
| 12' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 13' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 19' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 20' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 24' |
Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pablo Rosario |
| 25' |
Nice |
Moïse Bombito | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 31' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Nantes |
Meschack Elia | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 36' |
Nantes |
Moses Simon | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Nantes |
Meschack Elia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saidou Sow |
| 69' |
Nice |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 70' |
Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Nice |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 74' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 90' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 90' |
Nice |
Youssouf Ndayishimiye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremie Boga AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0.94 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 1.08 |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Mohamed Abdelmonem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Marcin Bulka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Ali Abdi DML | 85 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.30 | 0.71 |
| Gaetan Laborde FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Moïse Bombito DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pablo Rosario MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Morgan Sanson Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Tom Louchet Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Augusto MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Moses Simon FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Kelvin Adou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nicolas Cozza DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Pallois DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthis Abline FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Saidou Sow DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Meschack Elia FWR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sorba Thomas DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marcus Coco Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mostafa Mohamed Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Doucouré Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johann Lepenant Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |