Nice v Reims — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 16
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.21 – -0.89
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
59.0%
Draw
22.8%
Reims win
18.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDDLDDL last 10
scored 5
from 10.6 xG
conceded 15
from 20.4 xG
Reims are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 7
from 10.0 xG
conceded 9
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.21 xGReims 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Reims attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Reims |
Ange Tia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Siebatcheu |
| 1' |
 Nice |
Gaetan Laborde | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 32' |
Reims |
Jordan Siebatcheu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amadou Koné |
| 34' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Reims |
Amadou Koné | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Reims |
Ange Tia | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 58' |
Reims |
Amadou Koné | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Reims |
Valentin Atangana Edoa | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 69' |
Nice |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 70' |
Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Reims |
Mamadou Diakhon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hafiz Ibrahim |
| 78' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mory Gbane |
| 85' |
Nice |
Pablo Rosario | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Reims |
Hiroki Sekine | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Diakhon |
| 88' |
Reims |
John Finn | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Reims |
Keito Nakamura | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Reims |
Hafiz Ibrahim | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Akieme |
| 92' |
Reims |
Mamadou Diakhon | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mory Gbane |
| 94' |
Reims |
John Finn | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keito Nakamura |
| 97' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
Players
Reims
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keito Nakamura ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sergio Akieme DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Mory Gbane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| Cédric Kipré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Amadou Koné MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Aurélio Buta DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joseph Okumu DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Siebatcheu FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Ange Tia MR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mamadou Diakhon Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| Oumar Diakité Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Hafiz Ibrahim Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| John Finn Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hiroki Sekine Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Abdi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Gaetan Laborde FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Melvin Bard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Rosario MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcin Bulka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moïse Bombito DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Badredine Bouanani FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Morgan Sanson MC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
| Dante Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Baptiste Santamaria Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |