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Nice v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 3 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

3–2
1.52 – 1.50 xG
Shots
9 – 10
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.48 – +0.49
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Evann Guessand 11' — goalArnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 26' — goalSofiane Diop 33' — goalAdrien Truffert 48' — goalGaetan Laborde 49' — goal
Nice 1.52 xGRennes 1.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Albert Grønbæk 4' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jordan James 4' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 11' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Albert Grønbæk 20' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 26' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Sofiane Diop 33' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Badredine Bouanani 44' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Adrien Truffert 48' — Goal (0.57 xG, Open Play)Lorenz Assignon 48' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Laborde 49' — Goal (0.42 xG, Open Play)Ludovic Blas 52' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ludovic Blas 54' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Hichem Boudaoui 55' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 59' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Gaetan Laborde 69' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Hichem Boudaoui 78' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Antoine Mendy 88' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Seko Fofana 93' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Seko Fofana 97' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Nice attacking right Rennes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Rennes Albert Grønbæk 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
4' Rennes Jordan James 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ludovic Blas
11' Nice Evann Guessand 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal Tanguy NDombele Alvaro
20' Rennes Albert Grønbæk 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Azor Matusiwa
26' Rennes Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ludovic Blas
33' Nice Sofiane Diop 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Goal
44' Nice Badredine Bouanani 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
48' Rennes Adrien Truffert 0.57 Open Play Left Foot Goal
48' Rennes Lorenz Assignon 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jordan James
49' Nice Gaetan Laborde 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Goal Evann Guessand
52' Rennes Ludovic Blas 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amine Gouiri
54' Rennes Ludovic Blas 0.38 Open Play Saved Shot Adrien Truffert
55' Nice Hichem Boudaoui 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Badredine Bouanani
59' Nice Evann Guessand 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
69' Nice Gaetan Laborde 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Antoine Mendy
78' Nice Hichem Boudaoui 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sofiane Diop
88' Nice Antoine Mendy 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
93' Rennes Seko Fofana 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Hans Hateboer
97' Rennes Seko Fofana 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Azor Matusiwa

Players

Nice

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Evann Guessand AMR 90 1 1 2 1 0.43 0.42 0.77
Sofiane Diop AML 90 1 0 1 1 0.37 0.05 0.84
Hichem Boudaoui DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.58
Antoine Mendy DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.02 0.45
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro DMC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.35 0.47
Mohamed Abdelmonem DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Melvin Bard DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Marcin Bulka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Badredine Bouanani AMC 76 0 0 1 1 0.11 0.04 0.57
Gaetan Laborde FW 75 1 0 2 0 0.45 0.00 0.45
Pablo Rosario Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Mohamed Ali-Cho Sub 14 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Youssoufa Moukoko Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Dante Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rennes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adrien Truffert DML 90 1 0 1 1 0.57 0.38 1.00
Ludovic Blas AMC 90 0 1 2 2 0.43 0.38 0.84
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.35 0.00 0.41
Jordan James MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.01 0.39
Lorenz Assignon DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Leo Østigard DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hans Hateboer DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.04
Azor Matusiwa MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.04 0.46
Steve Mandanda GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Mikayil Faye DC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Albert Grønbæk AMC 51 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.11
Amine Gouiri Sub 39 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Seko Fofana Sub 21 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Andrés Gómez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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