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Nice v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 24 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–1
2.04 – 0.52 xG
Shots
15 – 11
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.04 – +0.48
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.11.72.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Dilane Bakwa 19' — goalMelvin Bard 53' — goal
Nice 2.04 xGStrasbourg 0.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Sofiane Diop 4' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Ali-Cho 11' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Boga 13' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 14' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 19' — Goal (0.22 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Boga 20' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pablo Rosario 20' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 28' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Sofiane Diop 35' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Melvin Bard 38' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Mohamed Ali-Cho 39' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 46' — Missed Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Hichem Boudaoui 52' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Melvin Bard 53' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Guela Doué 55' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Abakar Sylla 61' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 66' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Nanasi 70' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Sékou Mara 70' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jeremy Sebas 79' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 84' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Nanasi 84' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Dilane Bakwa 86' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Guela Doué 91' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Gaetan Laborde 92' — Saved Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)Melvin Bard 92' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)
Nice attacking right Strasbourg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Nice Sofiane Diop 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Evann Guessand
11' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Tom Louchet
13' Nice Jeremie Boga 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
14' Nice Evann Guessand 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
19' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.22 Open Play Left Foot Goal Felix Lemarechal
20' Nice Jeremie Boga 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
20' Nice Pablo Rosario 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tom Louchet
28' Nice Evann Guessand 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tom Louchet
35' Nice Sofiane Diop 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
38' Nice Melvin Bard 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
39' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Moïse Bombito
46' Nice Evann Guessand 0.41 Open Play Missed Shot Tom Louchet
52' Nice Hichem Boudaoui 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
53' Nice Melvin Bard 0.29 Open Play Left Foot Goal Sofiane Diop
55' Strasbourg Guela Doué 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dilane Bakwa
61' Strasbourg Abakar Sylla 0.00 Open Play Right Foot Own Goal
66' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sékou Mara
70' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Andrey Santos
70' Strasbourg Sékou Mara 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Felix Lemarechal
79' Strasbourg Jeremy Sebas 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Andrey Santos
84' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Andrey Santos
84' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
86' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Guela Doué
91' Strasbourg Guela Doué 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Dilane Bakwa
92' Nice Gaetan Laborde 0.56 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Evann Guessand
92' Nice Melvin Bard 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Marcin Bulka

Players

Nice

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Evann Guessand FW 90 0 0 3 2 0.57 0.71 1.27
Melvin Bard DL 90 1 0 3 0 0.40 0.00 0.81
Pablo Rosario DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.16
Mohamed Ali-Cho AMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.05 0.78
Hichem Boudaoui DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.05
Marcin Bulka GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
Dante DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Tom Louchet DR 90 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.67 1.52
Moïse Bombito DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.46
Sofiane Diop AMC 79 0 1 2 1 0.19 0.29 0.43
Jeremie Boga AML 79 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.22
Gaetan Laborde Sub 11 0 0 1 0 0.56 0.00 0.56
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Badredine Bouanani Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dilane Bakwa MR 90 1 0 4 2 0.30 0.07 0.31
Guela Doué DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.02 0.08
Sebastian Nanasi FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.06
Andrey Santos MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.09 0.17
Mamadou Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Diego Moreira ML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Djordje Petrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Felix Lemarechal FW 84 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.34
Abakar Sylla DC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Junior Mwanga Sub 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Caleb Wiley DL 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marvin Senaya Sub 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Ismaël Doukouré MC 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Sékou Mara Sub 21 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.11
Jeremy Sebas Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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