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Nice v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 August 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–1
1.24 – 0.95 xG
Shots
10 – 15
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.51 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.24 – +0.05
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jonathan Clauss 52' — goalShavy Babicka 72' — goal
Nice 1.24 xGToulouse 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jonathan Clauss 2' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Antoine Mendy 5' — Missed Shot (0.44 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Clauss 15' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Mohamed Ali-Cho 18' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 21' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Frank Magri 22' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 35' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 46' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Dante 49' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Tanguy NDombele Alvaro 50' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Clauss 52' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Vincent Sierro 52' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Evann Guessand 61' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 62' — Shot On Post (0.09 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 66' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rasmus Nicolaisen 67' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Vincent Sierro 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Shavy Babicka 72' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Cristian Cásseres Jr. 82' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Direct Freekick)Antoine Mendy 86' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Badredine Bouanani 92' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Niklas Schmidt 93' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Djibril Sidibe 94' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Niklas Schmidt 95' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Charlie Cresswell 96' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)
Nice attacking right Toulouse attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tanguy NDombele Alvaro
5' Nice Antoine Mendy 0.44 From Corner Missed Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
15' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
18' Nice Mohamed Ali-Cho 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
21' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yann Gboho
22' Toulouse Frank Magri 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
35' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Frank Magri
46' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
49' Nice Dante 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Mohamed Ali-Cho
50' Nice Tanguy NDombele Alvaro 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
52' Nice Jonathan Clauss 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Hichem Boudaoui
52' Toulouse Vincent Sierro 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
61' Nice Evann Guessand 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tanguy NDombele Alvaro
62' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Yann Gboho
66' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Aron Dønnum
67' Toulouse Rasmus Nicolaisen 0.01 Set Piece Missed Shot Gabriel Suazo
69' Toulouse Vincent Sierro 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Warren Kamanzi
72' Toulouse Shavy Babicka 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Yann Gboho
82' Toulouse Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.10 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Nice Antoine Mendy 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Billal Brahimi
92' Nice Badredine Bouanani 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jonathan Clauss
93' Toulouse Niklas Schmidt 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Shavy Babicka
94' Toulouse Djibril Sidibe 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Gabriel Suazo
95' Toulouse Niklas Schmidt 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
96' Toulouse Charlie Cresswell 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Niklas Schmidt

Players

Nice

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jonathan Clauss DMR 90 1 0 3 1 0.47 0.10 0.53
Antoine Mendy DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.46 0.00 0.42
Evann Guessand FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.17
Dante DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Pablo Rosario MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Moïse Bombito DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Marcin Bulka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Hichem Boudaoui MC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.32 0.50
Melvin Bard DML 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro MC 84 0 0 1 2 0.09 0.17 0.26
Mohamed Ali-Cho FW 83 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.46 0.53
Billal Brahimi Sub 7 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.10
Badredine Bouanani Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Jordan Lotomba Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Youssouf Ndayishimiye Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yann Gboho AMC 90 0 1 3 3 0.22 0.45 0.67
Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.61
Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.10 0.02 0.28
Charlie Cresswell DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.15
Rasmus Nicolaisen DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.06
Warren Kamanzi DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.17
Aron Dønnum DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.35
Guillaume Restes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Vincent Sierro MC 83 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.34
Frank Magri FW 70 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.14 0.15
Mark McKenzie DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shavy Babicka Sub 20 1 0 1 1 0.32 0.02 0.34
Gabriel Suazo Sub 20 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.02 0.32
Niklas Schmidt Sub 7 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.02 0.05
Djibril Sidibe Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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