Nice v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.01 – +0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
57.9%
Draw
22.8%
Toulouse win
19.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.00–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.51–1.17 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.01 xGToulouse 0.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 18' |
 Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Noah Edjouma |
| 28' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Edjouma |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Jaydee Canvot | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Edjouma |
| 47' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Terem Igobor Moffi |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 49' |
Nice |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Terem Igobor Moffi |
| 52' |
Toulouse |
Jaydee Canvot | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Edjouma |
| 55' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Juma Bah |
| 55' |
Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 55' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 74' |
Toulouse |
Alexis Vossah | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kojo Peprah Oppong |
| 84' |
Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 86' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Toulouse |
Djibril Sidibe | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 96' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Billal Brahimi |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Melvin Bard DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.16 |
| Tom Louchet MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Badredine Bouanani AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Isak Jansson AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jeremie Boga Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Salis Abdul Samed Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bernard Nguene Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Billal Brahimi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Gboho FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Jaydee Canvot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Frank Magri FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mário Sauer MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Noah Edjouma FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Alexis Vossah Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Santiago Hidalgo Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |