Northern Ireland v Georgia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 5 October 2026 · EUR-Nations League · 2627
EUR-Nations League results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 1-0 11.5%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 2-0 9.3%
- 0-1 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | Under 2.5 | 50.6% |
| BTTS yes | 51.5% | BTTS no | 48.5% |
| Northern Ireland 1+ | 80.3% | Northern Ireland 2+ | 48.3% |
| Georgia 1+ | 64.1% | Georgia 2+ | 27.3% |
Expected goals 1.63 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Northern Ireland have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Georgia have allowed 1.35.
- At home Northern Ireland average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Northern Ireland have only 0 matches on record.
- Georgia have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Northern Ireland have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 24.7% for the draw and 23.9% for Georgia. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.62 for Northern Ireland and 1.02 for Georgia.
Why Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Georgia have allowed 1.35. At home Northern Ireland average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.7%.
Why Georgia can win
Georgia have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Northern Ireland have allowed 1.35. Away from home Georgia average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Northern Ireland, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Georgia, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Northern Ireland: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Georgia: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Northern Ireland are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.63–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.