Norwich City v Watford — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Norwich City

12:30 UTC

Watford

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 122h before kick-off

Norwich City win

51.1%

model 51.7%

Draw

26.7%

model 26.4%

Watford win

22.2%

model 21.9%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.6%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.2%
2-0 9.1%
0-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.1%	Under 2.5	46.9%
BTTS yes	55.4%	BTTS no	44.6%
Norwich City 1+	82.4%	Norwich City 2+	51.8%
Watford 1+	65.6%	Watford 2+	28.9%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

48/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Norwich City over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 41%

52.6% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 884 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Norwich City not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Norwich City carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1394.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Norwich City have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for the draw and 22.2% for Watford. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.74 for Norwich City and 1.07 for Watford.

Why Norwich City

Norwich City carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1394.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Watford can win

Nothing in the data singles out Watford.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Norwich City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Norwich City: 52% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Watford: 43% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Norwich City's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Norwich City are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522622	1.74–1.07	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502722	1.67–1.05	1-1 13%	51%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to win	50.5%	51.5%	43.4%	1.19×	1.94
Draw	27.1%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58
Watford to win	22.4%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City & not both score	27.1%	25.2%	23.3%	1.08×	3.97
Norwich City & both teams score	23.4%	21.8%	20.2%	1.08×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Watford & both teams score	11.6%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54
Watford & not both score	10.9%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.0%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City & over 1.5	40.8%	40.3%	32.5%	1.24×	2.48
Norwich City & under 3.5	33.6%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Norwich City & over 2.5	31.6%	30.7%	26.4%	1.16×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	21.0%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.0%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Norwich City & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.55
Norwich City & over 3.5	16.8%	18.0%	11.1%	1.62×	5.56
Watford & over 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Watford & under 3.5	16.5%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Watford & over 2.5	13.2%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Norwich City & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.62
Watford & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	12.9%	0.61×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Watford & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63
Watford & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (1UP)	65.1%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Watford (1UP)	40.6%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (2UP)	50.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Watford (2UP)	22.4%	23.8%	—	—	4.21

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to win 2nd half	41.3%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
2nd half drawn	35.9%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Watford to win 2nd half	22.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.9%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Watford under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Watford over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Watford over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.1%	12.9%	—	—	7.75

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.4%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Norwich City over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.3%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Norwich City under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.7%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Norwich City over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.6%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (+2.5)	88.0%	88.5%	91.9%	0.96×	1.13
Norwich City (+0.5)	77.6%	78.5%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Watford (+1.5)	72.1%	73.7%	80.7%	0.91×	1.36
Norwich City (-0.5)	50.5%	52.4%	43.4%	1.21×	1.91
Watford (+0.5)	49.5%	47.6%	56.6%	0.84×	2.10
Norwich City (-1.5)	27.9%	26.3%	19.3%	1.37×	3.80
Watford (-0.5)	22.4%	21.5%	29.1%	0.74×	4.65
Norwich City (-2.5)	12.0%	11.5%	8.1%	1.43×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	81.1%	81.4%	77.6%	1.05×	1.23
Watford clean sheet	18.9%	18.6%	22.4%	0.83×	5.39

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede in 1st half	51.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	48.8%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede in 2nd half	61.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Watford clean sheet in 2nd half	38.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 6.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Watford over 2.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Watford under 5.5 corners	69.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Watford over 3.5 corners	57.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Watford under 4.5 corners	56.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Watford over 4.5 corners	43.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Watford under 3.5 corners	42.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Watford over 5.5 corners	30.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Watford under 2.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Watford over 6.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	97.8%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Watford under 2.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Watford under 1.5 goals	71.8%	71.8%	70.0%	1.03×	1.39
Watford over 0.5 goals	64.9%	63.2%	69.5%	0.91×	1.58
Watford under 0.5 goals	35.1%	36.8%	30.5%	1.21×	2.72
Watford over 1.5 goals	28.2%	28.2%	30.0%	0.94×	3.55
Watford over 2.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	9.4%	0.81×	13.06
Watford over 3.5 goals	2.2%	2.5%	2.2%	1.14×	39.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	93.3%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	65.8%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	34.2%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.54

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford scores equally in both	45.0%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Watford scores more in 2nd half	34.5%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Watford scores more in 1st half	20.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (away no bet)	65.0%	66.4%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	33.6%	38.9%	0.87×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	56.2%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Watford odd goals	43.8%	43.1%	47.6%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.2%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Norwich City to score 2+ in a row	41.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Watford to score 2+ in a row	20.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Norwich City to score 3+ in a row	16.4%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Watford to score 3+ in a row	4.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City corners (+3.5)	91.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Norwich City corners (+2.5)	87.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Norwich City corners (+1.5)	82.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Norwich City corners (-1.5)	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Watford corners (+3.5)	56.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Norwich City corners (-2.5)	52.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Watford corners (+2.5)	47.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Norwich City corners (-3.5)	44.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Watford corners (+1.5)	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Watford corners (-1.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Watford corners (-2.5)	12.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Watford corners (-3.5)	8.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	49.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
0-8 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	24.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	57.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	50.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	42.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.0%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.51
2-0	9.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-0	8.0%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-0	5.1%	7.4%	4.0%	1.85×	13.51
3-1	5.4%	7.4%	4.3%	1.71×	13.51
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.30
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.32
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	2.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	2.2%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	3.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (2nd half DNB)	64.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Watford (2nd half DNB)	35.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City leading at HT (DNB)	66.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	33.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City or draw (1X)	77.6%	75.5%	70.9%	1.06×	1.32
Norwich City or Watford (12)	72.9%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Watford or draw (X2)	49.5%	48.5%	56.6%	0.86×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City or draw at HT	81.1%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Watford or draw at HT	61.9%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Norwich City or Watford at HT	57.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City or draw (1UP)	77.6%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Watford or draw (1UP)	49.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City or draw in 2nd half	77.1%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Norwich City or Watford in 2nd half	64.1%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Watford or draw in 2nd half	58.7%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.9%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (DNB)	69.2%	67.5%	59.9%	1.13×	1.48
Watford (DNB)	30.8%	32.5%	40.1%	0.81×	3.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to score first	56.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Watford to score first	35.5%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	8.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.0%	51.3%	54.4%	0.94×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.0%	48.7%	45.6%	1.07×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.1%	41.6%	39.9%	1.04×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	36.1%	38.4%	37.1%	1.04×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.0%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.0%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.0%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.2%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	24.1%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.3%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.7%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	45.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.9%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.8%	26.6%	22.4%	1.19×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.2%	22.9%	25.9%	0.89×	4.36
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.35

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Watford to score exactly 0	35.1%	35.9%	30.5%	1.18×	2.79
Watford to score exactly 2	19.2%	19.5%	20.6%	0.95×	5.12
Watford to score 3+	8.9%	8.6%	9.4%	0.91×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to score exactly 1	31.5%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Norwich City to score exactly 2	26.2%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Norwich City to score 3+	23.4%	23.3%	16.1%	1.44×	4.29
Norwich City to score exactly 0	18.9%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Norwich City leading at HT	38.1%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Watford leading at HT	18.9%	16.0%	—	—	6.23

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City -1: 2	49.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Norwich City -1: 1	27.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Norwich City -1: X	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:1)	49.5%	46.1%	56.6%	0.82×	2.17
Norwich City (0:1)	27.9%	27.0%	19.3%	1.40×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:2)	72.1%	75.6%	80.7%	0.94×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.9%	15.2%	11.3%	1.35×	6.57
Norwich City (0:2)	12.0%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:3)	88.0%	90.6%	91.9%	0.99×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.8%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.24
Norwich City (0:3)	4.3%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.95

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:4)	95.7%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	81.57
Norwich City (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.76

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (1:0)	77.6%	78.6%	70.9%	1.11×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.6%	12.7%	17.4%	0.73×	7.86
Watford (1:0)	8.8%	6.9%	11.7%	0.59×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (2:0)	91.2%	94.0%	88.3%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.3%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.67
Watford (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.4%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to concede	64.9%	63.7%	69.5%	0.92×	1.57
Norwich City clean sheet	35.1%	36.3%	30.5%	1.19×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City clean sheet in 1st half	65.8%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Norwich City to concede in 1st half	34.2%	29.5%	—	—	3.39

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City clean sheet in 2nd half	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Norwich City to concede in 2nd half	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City over 2.5 corners	90.9%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Norwich City over 3.5 corners	83.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Norwich City over 4.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Norwich City over 5.5 corners	64.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Norwich City over 6.5 corners	53.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Norwich City under 6.5 corners	46.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Norwich City under 5.5 corners	36.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Norwich City under 4.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Norwich City under 3.5 corners	16.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Norwich City under 2.5 corners	9.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 3.5 goals	91.2%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.09
Norwich City over 0.5 goals	81.1%	82.2%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Norwich City under 2.5 goals	76.6%	77.8%	83.9%	0.93×	1.29
Norwich City under 1.5 goals	50.4%	53.2%	59.4%	0.90×	1.88
Norwich City over 1.5 goals	49.6%	46.8%	40.6%	1.15×	2.14
Norwich City over 2.5 goals	23.4%	22.2%	16.1%	1.38×	4.50
Norwich City under 0.5 goals	18.9%	17.8%	22.4%	0.79×	5.61
Norwich City over 3.5 goals	8.8%	7.8%	5.2%	1.51×	12.82

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 1.5 in 1st half	83.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Norwich City over 0.5 in 1st half	51.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Norwich City under 0.5 in 1st half	48.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
Norwich City over 1.5 in 1st half	16.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City scores more in 2nd half	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Norwich City scores equally in both	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Norwich City scores more in 1st half	26.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.7%	51.5%	48.7%	1.06×	1.94
Watford (home no bet)	45.3%	48.5%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City even goals	51.8%	50.7%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Norwich City odd goals	48.2%	49.3%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.4%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
HT 1-0	22.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	9.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-0	8.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City at HT / Norwich City at FT	30.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Draw at HT / Norwich City at FT	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	11.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	9.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.43
Norwich City at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Watford at HT / Norwich City at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Norwich City at HT / Watford at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to score last	56.7%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Watford to score last	35.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	8.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.0%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Norwich City to lead by 1 at any time	65.1%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.6%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	40.6%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Norwich City to lead by 2 at any time	34.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Norwich City to lead by 3 at any time	14.4%	10.6%	—	—	9.40
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	13.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.41
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	—	—	61.78

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City most corners	68.8%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Watford most corners	23.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	7.4%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.1%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	72.3%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	71.0%	72.3%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.1%	63.3%	69.1%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.9%	48.4%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.9%	48.4%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.2%	48.4%	44.5%	1.09×	2.07
1-2 goals	41.0%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.1%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.8%	30.2%	22.4%	1.35×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.1%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.8%	14.8%	8.2%	1.81×	6.76
7+ goals	2.1%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City never behind	51.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Watford never behind	26.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.0%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.0%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.1%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	77.3%	74.1%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.1%	72.5%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.0%	52.5%	48.4%	1.08×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	49.0%	47.5%	51.6%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.9%	27.5%	23.7%	1.16×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	22.7%	25.9%	0.88×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	13.9%	12.4%	9.4%	1.32×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	4.0%	1.93×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.7%	92.4%	95.8%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.6%	81.1%	89.0%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.7%	67.5%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.9%	61.9%	68.5%	0.90×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.1%	38.1%	31.5%	1.21×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.3%	32.5%	34.9%	0.93×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.4%	18.9%	11.0%	1.72×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.3%	7.6%	4.2%	1.79×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.6%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.4%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.9%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.1%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to score in both halves	84.0%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Norwich City not to score in both halves	68.6%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Norwich City to score in both halves	31.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Watford to score in both halves	16.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.0%	53.8%	54.4%	0.99×	1.86
Only Norwich City scores	27.1%	26.1%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Only Watford scores	10.9%	11.0%	15.2%	0.72×	9.07
Neither team scores	8.0%	7.1%	7.3%	0.98×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.8%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	15.2%	17.4%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	8.0%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	8.1%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.8%	7.6%	4.0%	1.91×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.4%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
3+ goals in 1st half	10.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.3%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.6%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.1%	22.8%	—	—	4.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win both halves	95.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Norwich City not to win both halves	84.0%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Norwich City to win both halves	16.0%	16.5%	—	—	6.08
Watford to win both halves	4.5%	2.8%	—	—	35.38

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to win either half	63.4%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Watford to win neither half	62.7%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Watford to win either half	37.3%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Norwich City to win neither half	36.6%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win to nil	89.1%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Norwich City not to win to nil	72.9%	75.3%	76.7%	0.98×	1.33
Norwich City to win to nil	27.1%	24.7%	23.3%	1.06×	4.05
Watford to win to nil	10.9%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.1%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Norwich City by 1	22.6%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Norwich City by 2	15.9%	17.0%	11.3%	1.51×	5.87
Watford by 1	13.6%	11.8%	17.4%	0.68×	8.50
Norwich City by 3+	12.0%	11.8%	8.1%	1.46×	8.51
Watford by 2	6.3%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Watford by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.89