Nottingham Forest v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 26 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 13
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.91
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -1.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
20.9%
Draw
25.0%
Arsenal win
54.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.95–1.55 | 0-1 13% | 46% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.51 xGArsenal 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 10' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 15' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Leandro Trossard |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 40' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Calafiori |
| 42' |
Arsenal |
William Saliba | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.21 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 54' |
Arsenal |
Kieran Tierney | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 57' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieran Tierney |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 84' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 85' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 87' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Yates |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.15 |
| Ethan Nwaneri FWR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Jorginho MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Kieran Tierney Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raheem Sterling Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Partey Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ben White Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Chris Wood FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Nicolás Domínguez DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Danilo Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |