Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 13
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.50
Goals − xG
-0.28 – -0.91
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
47.5%
Draw
24.2%
Bournemouth win
28.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–1.23 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 1.28 xGBournemouth 1.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Scott |
| 4' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 17' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 30' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 40' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Bournemouth |
Luis Sinisterra | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 54' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Willy Boly | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Jebbison |
| 80' | Nottingham Forest | Harry Toffolo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 85' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 85' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 89' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neco Williams |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Willy Boly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Neco Williams DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Chris Wood FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Ola Aina DL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Harry Toffolo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Danilo DMC | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Elliot Anderson Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| Neto GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.00 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Luis Sinisterra AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Adam Smith DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Julián Araujo Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |