Nottingham Forest v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 17
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 11
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-0.96 – -0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
31.9%
Draw
24.9%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
43.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.44 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.96 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 2.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 7' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 13' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 16' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 28' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 29' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 45' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Jesus |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 65' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolò Savona | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 79' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolò Savona | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 82' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 87' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Stefanos Tzimas | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Savona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 0.60 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dan Ndoye AMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| James McAtee Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Wieffer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.59 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Maxim De Cuyper AML | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| Diego Gómez DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.10 | 0.48 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Georginio Rutter AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jack Hinshelwood Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Stefanos Tzimas Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Carlos Baleba Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |