Nottingham Forest v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Nottingham Forest

15:00 UTC

Brighton and Hove Albion

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,060h before kick-off

Nottingham Forest win

38.4%

model 37.3%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.0%

Brighton and Hove Albion win

38.5%

model 38.8%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.9%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.3%
0-1 7.2%
1-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.2%	Under 2.5	40.8%
BTTS yes	61.5%	BTTS no	38.5%
Nottingham Forest 1+	78.1%	Nottingham Forest 2+	44.8%
Brighton and Hove Albion 1+	78.8%	Brighton and Hove Albion 2+	45.9%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.55. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 76%

82.8% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1330 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1715 Elo against 1559.
Brighton and Hove Albion have created 2.19 xG a match over their last five while Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.55.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 2.06 xG a match.

Risk factors

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 3.20 a match from 2.19 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Brighton and Hove Albion have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.4% for Nottingham Forest and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for Nottingham Forest and 1.55 for Brighton and Hove Albion.

Why Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest have created 1.84 xG a match over their last five while Brighton and Hove Albion have allowed 1.37. At home Nottingham Forest average 1.12 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.52 to 1.55. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Brighton and Hove Albion can win

Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1715 Elo against 1559. Brighton and Hove Albion have created 2.19 xG a match over their last five while Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.55. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 2.06 xG a match.

Key players

Nottingham Forest's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Morgan Gibbs-White (0.47), Liam Delap (0.42), Igor Jesus (0.32). Brighton and Hove Albion's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danny Welbeck (0.38), Pascal Groß (0.36), Jack Hinshelwood (0.32).

Availability

2 of Nottingham Forest's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Nottingham Forest's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Brighton and Hove Albion's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Nottingham Forest: 47% possession, 19.2 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Brighton and Hove Albion: 54% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.75 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Brighton and Hove Albion are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Nottingham Forest are finishing sharply below their chances — 9.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLDLDDWLLL last 10 scored 9 from 18.4 xG conceded 14 from 15.5 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWLDWWWW last 10 scored 26 from 21.9 xG conceded 9 from 13.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372439	1.52–1.55	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	402832	1.47–1.28	1-1 13%	52%	57%
dc-xg	392437	1.60–1.56	1-1 11%	61%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to win	37.8%	36.4%	43.0%	0.85×	2.75
Brighton and Hove Albion to win	37.7%	36.4%	32.3%	1.12×	2.75
Draw	24.5%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest & both teams score	20.2%	21.8%	22.9%	0.95×	4.59
Brighton and Hove Albion & both teams score	20.2%	21.8%	15.3%	1.42×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Nottingham Forest & not both score	17.6%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.57
Brighton and Hove Albion & not both score	17.5%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.57
Draw & not both score	5.2%	8.3%	5.0%	1.68×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest & over 1.5	30.2%	30.8%	36.6%	0.84×	3.25
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 1.5	30.1%	30.8%	25.3%	1.21×	3.25
Nottingham Forest & under 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Nottingham Forest & over 2.5	24.5%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	21.9%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.5%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Nottingham Forest & under 2.5	13.3%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Nottingham Forest & over 3.5	13.3%	12.8%	16.5%	0.78×	7.79
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 2.5	13.3%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 3.5	13.2%	12.8%	10.6%	1.22×	7.79
Nottingham Forest & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.0%	1.60×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (1UP)	55.8%	57.9%	62.0%	0.93×	1.73
Brighton and Hove Albion (1UP)	55.7%	57.9%	51.5%	1.13×	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (2UP)	37.8%	37.4%	44.7%	0.84×	2.67
Brighton and Hove Albion (2UP)	37.7%	37.4%	34.5%	1.09×	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to win 2nd half	39.8%	36.2%	32.8%	1.10×	2.76
2nd half drawn	35.8%	36.1%	31.1%	1.16×	2.77
Nottingham Forest to win 2nd half	24.4%	24.3%	36.2%	0.67×	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.3%	79.0%	79.9%	0.99×	1.27
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.2%	54.7%	57.8%	0.95×	1.83
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.8%	45.3%	42.2%	1.08×	2.21
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.7%	21.0%	20.1%	1.04×	4.76

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.7%	88.3%	75.2%	1.17×	1.13
Nottingham Forest under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	55.1%	41.7%	1.32×	1.81
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	44.9%	58.3%	0.77×	2.23
Nottingham Forest over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.3%	11.7%	24.8%	0.47×	8.54

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (+2.5)	93.1%	92.1%	89.1%	1.03×	1.09
Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5)	82.0%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Nottingham Forest (+0.5)	62.3%	62.9%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
Brighton and Hove Albion (+0.5)	62.2%	62.9%	57.0%	1.10×	1.59
Nottingham Forest (-0.5)	37.8%	37.1%	43.0%	0.86×	2.70
Brighton and Hove Albion (-0.5)	37.7%	37.1%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Nottingham Forest (-1.5)	18.0%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.72
Nottingham Forest (-2.5)	6.9%	7.9%	10.9%	0.72×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede	77.3%	78.8%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet	22.7%	21.2%	21.9%	0.97×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 1st half	57.3%	57.0%	51.2%	1.11×	1.76
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 1st half	42.7%	43.0%	48.8%	0.88×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 2nd half	53.1%	54.9%	41.7%	1.32×	1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 2nd half	46.9%	45.1%	58.3%	0.77×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 corners	79.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion under 6.5 corners	76.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion under 5.5 corners	65.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 corners	64.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion under 4.5 corners	51.3%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Brighton and Hove Albion over 4.5 corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 corners	35.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Brighton and Hove Albion over 5.5 corners	34.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Brighton and Hove Albion over 6.5 corners	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 corners	20.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 goals	93.7%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 goals	81.4%	81.4%	85.1%	0.96×	1.23
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 goals	77.3%	76.3%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 goals	56.4%	59.4%	60.6%	0.98×	1.68
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 goals	43.6%	40.6%	39.4%	1.03×	2.46
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 goals	22.7%	23.7%	25.0%	0.95×	4.21
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 goals	18.6%	18.6%	14.9%	1.24×	5.39
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 goals	6.3%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.4%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 1st half	55.8%	61.9%	59.7%	1.04×	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 1st half	44.2%	38.1%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 1st half	11.7%	10.6%	10.7%	0.99×	9.39

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 2nd half	41.1%	43.4%	40.8%	1.06×	2.31
Brighton and Hove Albion scores equally in both	36.3%	37.3%	37.5%	0.99×	2.68
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 1st half	22.6%	22.0%	21.7%	1.01×	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (away no bet)	60.7%	61.9%	63.5%	0.98×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.3%	38.1%	36.5%	1.04×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion even goals	52.6%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Brighton and Hove Albion odd goals	47.4%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.0%	82.7%	80.0%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.0%	17.3%	20.0%	0.87×	5.77

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.2%	68.5%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.8%	31.5%	29.9%	1.06×	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.7%	55.3%	61.6%	0.90×	1.81
Nottingham Forest to score 2+ in a row	33.9%	29.2%	39.2%	0.75×	3.42
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 2+ in a row	33.8%	29.2%	29.7%	0.98×	3.42
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.9%	19.6%	26.1%	0.75×	5.10
Nottingham Forest to score 3+ in a row	11.2%	12.0%	16.4%	0.73×	8.33
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.0%	10.1%	1.19×	8.33

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest corners (+3.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+3.5)	79.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Nottingham Forest corners (+2.5)	78.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+2.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Nottingham Forest corners (+1.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+1.5)	61.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Nottingham Forest corners (-1.5)	38.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-1.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Nottingham Forest corners (-2.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-2.5)	21.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Nottingham Forest corners (-3.5)	20.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-3.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	31.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	31.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.72
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
0-1	7.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
1-0	7.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
0-0	5.2%	7.4%	5.0%	1.50×	13.51
0-2	5.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
2-0	5.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-3	4.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	2.8%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (2nd half DNB)	62.0%	62.5%	47.5%	1.32×	1.60
Nottingham Forest (2nd half DNB)	38.0%	37.5%	52.5%	0.71×	2.67

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest leading at HT (DNB)	62.6%	65.7%	59.8%	1.10×	1.52
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT (DNB)	37.4%	34.3%	40.2%	0.85×	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest or Brighton and Hove Albion (12)	75.5%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Nottingham Forest or draw (1X)	62.3%	63.6%	67.7%	0.94×	1.57
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (X2)	62.2%	63.6%	57.0%	1.12×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest or draw at HT	76.5%	79.0%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
Nottingham Forest or Brighton and Hove Albion at HT	62.8%	61.6%	60.2%	1.02×	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw at HT	60.7%	61.6%	63.9%	0.96×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest or draw (1UP)	62.3%	71.6%	74.3%	0.96×	1.40
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (1UP)	62.2%	71.6%	65.3%	1.10×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw in 2nd half	75.6%	75.7%	63.8%	1.19×	1.32
Nottingham Forest or Brighton and Hove Albion in 2nd half	64.2%	63.9%	68.9%	0.93×	1.56
Nottingham Forest or draw in 2nd half	60.2%	63.8%	67.2%	0.95×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.7%	58.5%	57.1%	1.03×	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.3%	41.5%	42.9%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (DNB)	50.1%	50.9%	57.1%	0.89×	1.97
Brighton and Hove Albion (DNB)	49.9%	49.1%	42.9%	1.14×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to score first	47.5%	46.0%	51.8%	0.89×	2.17
Brighton and Hove Albion to score first	47.4%	46.0%	43.3%	1.06×	2.17
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	5.0%	1.49×	13.55

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.7%	55.0%	58.0%	0.95×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.3%	45.0%	42.0%	1.07×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.4%	44.3%	46.7%	0.95×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.8%	34.5%	30.2%	1.14×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.0%	82.6%	82.1%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.0%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	73.8%	68.6%	1.08×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.2%	31.4%	0.83×	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.9%	54.9%	55.9%	0.98×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	20.7%	21.0%	24.7%	0.85×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	18.3%	15.1%	12.8%	1.18×	6.63
Both score in both halves	7.0%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.7%	79.9%	80.4%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.3%	20.1%	19.6%	1.03×	4.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.7%	57.5%	61.6%	0.93×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.3%	42.5%	38.4%	1.11×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.1%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12
4-6 goals	31.3%	30.7%	32.8%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.5%	22.9%	18.3%	1.25×	4.37
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	2.8%	0.66×	54.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 1	33.7%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 2	24.9%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 0	22.7%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+	18.6%	19.6%	14.9%	1.31×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to score exactly 1	33.7%	32.6%	29.2%	1.11×	3.07
Nottingham Forest to score exactly 2	25.0%	23.3%	26.1%	0.89×	4.29
Nottingham Forest to score exactly 0	22.7%	23.3%	21.9%	1.06×	4.29
Nottingham Forest to score 3+	18.7%	18.8%	22.9%	0.82×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest leading at HT	39.3%	38.5%	36.1%	1.07×	2.60
Draw at HT	37.2%	38.4%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT	23.5%	21.0%	24.3%	0.86×	4.77

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest -1: 2	62.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Nottingham Forest -1: X	19.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.70
Nottingham Forest -1: 1	18.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:1)	62.2%	61.4%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61
Nottingham Forest (0:1)	18.0%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:2)	82.0%	82.9%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.10
Nottingham Forest (0:2)	6.9%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3)	93.1%	92.7%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	41.98
Nottingham Forest (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.93
Nottingham Forest (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (1:0)	62.3%	65.3%	67.7%	0.97×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.7%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.84
Brighton and Hove Albion (1:0)	18.0%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (2:0)	82.0%	84.6%	84.3%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.1%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.73
Brighton and Hove Albion (2:0)	6.9%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.9%	39.9%	49.6%	0.81×	2.51
1st half highest scoring	35.6%	35.6%	25.8%	1.38×	2.81
Halves equal	24.4%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to concede	77.3%	76.1%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Nottingham Forest clean sheet	22.7%	23.9%	25.0%	0.96×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest clean sheet in 1st half	55.8%	61.9%	59.7%	1.04×	1.62
Nottingham Forest to concede in 1st half	44.2%	38.1%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to concede in 2nd half	59.2%	55.0%	57.8%	0.95×	1.82
Nottingham Forest clean sheet in 2nd half	40.8%	45.0%	42.2%	1.07×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest over 2.5 corners	83.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Nottingham Forest under 6.5 corners	71.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Nottingham Forest over 3.5 corners	69.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Nottingham Forest under 5.5 corners	59.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Nottingham Forest over 4.5 corners	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Nottingham Forest under 4.5 corners	45.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Nottingham Forest over 5.5 corners	40.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Nottingham Forest under 3.5 corners	30.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Nottingham Forest over 6.5 corners	28.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Nottingham Forest under 2.5 corners	17.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest under 3.5 goals	93.6%	92.2%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals	81.3%	82.2%	77.1%	1.07×	1.22
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 goals	77.3%	77.7%	78.1%	1.00×	1.29
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 goals	56.4%	58.6%	51.1%	1.15×	1.71
Nottingham Forest over 1.5 goals	43.6%	41.4%	48.9%	0.85×	2.42
Nottingham Forest under 0.5 goals	22.7%	22.3%	21.9%	1.01×	4.49
Nottingham Forest over 2.5 goals	18.7%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.62
Nottingham Forest over 3.5 goals	6.4%	7.8%	8.5%	0.91×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 in 1st half	79.1%	77.6%	84.4%	0.92×	1.29
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 in 1st half	57.3%	56.7%	51.2%	1.11×	1.76
Nottingham Forest under 0.5 in 1st half	42.7%	43.3%	48.8%	0.89×	2.31
Nottingham Forest over 1.5 in 1st half	20.9%	22.4%	15.6%	1.44×	4.46

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest scores more in 1st half	38.1%	37.9%	26.3%	1.44×	2.64
Nottingham Forest scores equally in both	36.7%	37.9%	37.7%	1.00×	2.64
Nottingham Forest scores more in 2nd half	25.3%	27.8%	36.1%	0.77×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (home no bet)	60.7%	59.9%	56.6%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.3%	40.1%	43.4%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest even goals	52.6%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Nottingham Forest odd goals	47.4%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.8%	24.4%	28.1%	0.87×	4.09
HT 1-0	20.3%	24.4%	21.5%	1.13×	4.10
HT 0-1	13.9%	11.0%	14.8%	0.75×	9.06
HT 1-1	11.8%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08
HT 2-0	8.6%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.47
Any other HT score	7.5%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.48
HT 2-1	5.0%	6.9%	3.7%	1.85×	14.52
HT 0-2	4.1%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.01
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.05
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT	27.5%	27.2%	26.4%	1.03×	3.67
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	18.8%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.98
Draw at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	14.8%	12.7%	12.3%	1.03×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.7%	13.8%	0.92×	7.90
Draw at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT	9.1%	6.0%	13.9%	0.44×	16.57
Nottingham Forest at HT / Draw at FT	7.7%	6.0%	6.4%	0.95×	16.61
Nottingham Forest at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	4.1%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.62
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.64
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT	1.2%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to score last	47.5%	46.5%	50.1%	0.93×	2.15
Brighton and Hove Albion to score last	47.4%	46.5%	45.1%	1.03×	2.15
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	5.0%	1.49×	13.55

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.8%	92.7%	95.1%	0.98×	1.08
Nottingham Forest to lead by 1 at any time	55.8%	54.8%	62.0%	0.88×	1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 1 at any time	55.7%	54.8%	51.5%	1.07×	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.5%	44.6%	50.6%	0.88×	2.24
Nottingham Forest to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	29.9%	0.66×	5.08
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	21.0%	0.94×	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.0%	15.0%	21.2%	0.71×	6.69
Nottingham Forest to lead by 3 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	14.83
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 3 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.84

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest most corners	49.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Brighton and Hove Albion most corners	40.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.8%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.0%	78.7%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.4%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.4%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.7%	53.2%	55.8%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.8%	48.5%	51.9%	0.93×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.1%	48.5%	46.3%	1.05×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.0%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
1-2 goals	38.0%	39.2%	36.6%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.3%	35.2%	32.8%	1.08×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.4%	30.2%	28.9%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.7%	14.8%	14.5%	1.02×	6.75
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.08

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest never behind	39.1%	44.1%	48.5%	0.91×	2.27
Brighton and Hove Albion never behind	39.0%	44.1%	38.0%	1.16×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.6%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.1%	82.3%	82.8%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.5%	77.3%	81.7%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.5%	66.3%	64.5%	1.03×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.9%	58.6%	58.5%	1.00×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.1%	41.4%	41.5%	1.00×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.5%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.5%	22.7%	18.3%	1.24×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.9%	17.7%	17.2%	1.03×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	5.0%	1.56×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.7%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.1%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.6%	75.9%	78.9%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.5%	72.4%	76.2%	0.95×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.6%	55.8%	53.9%	1.03×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.4%	44.2%	46.1%	0.96×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.5%	27.6%	23.8%	1.16×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.4%	24.1%	21.1%	1.14×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.9%	7.6%	7.5%	1.02×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.3%	2.8%	2.9%	0.96×	35.56

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.5%	85.8%	87.2%	0.98×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.2%	78.1%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.0%	63.7%	64.3%	0.99×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.0%	36.3%	35.7%	1.02×	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.8%	21.9%	28.1%	0.78×	4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.5%	14.2%	12.8%	1.11×	7.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.1%	83.1%	75.7%	1.10×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.4%	84.7%	0.94×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	53.2%	45.6%	1.17×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	46.8%	54.4%	0.86×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	20.6%	15.3%	1.35×	4.85
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.9%	16.9%	24.3%	0.70×	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to score in both halves	73.8%	74.0%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Nottingham Forest not to score in both halves	73.1%	73.9%	68.6%	1.08×	1.35
Nottingham Forest to score in both halves	26.9%	26.1%	31.4%	0.83×	3.84
Brighton and Hove Albion to score in both halves	26.2%	26.0%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.7%	58.7%	58.0%	1.01×	1.70
Only Nottingham Forest scores	17.6%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Only Brighton and Hove Albion scores	17.5%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.24
Neither team scores	5.2%	7.1%	5.0%	1.44×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.7%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.6%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.3%	17.5%	13.4%	1.30×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.8%	7.6%	10.6%	0.72×	13.13
6 or more goals	8.0%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.2%	7.6%	5.0%	1.54×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.2%	35.9%	36.2%	0.99×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	24.5%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.64
No goals in 1st half	23.8%	21.5%	28.1%	0.77×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	17.5%	15.6%	12.8%	1.22×	6.39

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.2%	45.0%	54.4%	0.83×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	33.1%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	21.6%	22.7%	15.3%	1.49×	4.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win both halves	90.7%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Nottingham Forest not to win both halves	90.4%	94.1%	86.4%	1.09×	1.06
Nottingham Forest to win both halves	9.6%	5.9%	13.6%	0.44×	16.83
Brighton and Hove Albion to win both halves	9.3%	5.9%	8.7%	0.69×	16.85

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to win either half	54.1%	54.4%	58.7%	0.93×	1.84
Brighton and Hove Albion to win either half	53.9%	54.3%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Brighton and Hove Albion to win neither half	46.1%	45.7%	51.7%	0.88×	2.19
Nottingham Forest to win neither half	45.9%	45.7%	41.3%	1.10×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest not to win to nil	82.4%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win to nil	82.5%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Nottingham Forest to win to nil	17.6%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92
Brighton and Hove Albion to win to nil	17.5%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.5%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Nottingham Forest by 1	19.8%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.86
Brighton and Hove Albion by 1	19.7%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.86
Nottingham Forest by 2	11.2%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Brighton and Hove Albion by 2	11.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Nottingham Forest by 3+	6.9%	7.2%	10.9%	0.66×	13.91
Brighton and Hove Albion by 3+	6.9%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.91