Nottingham Forest v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 4
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+2.55 – +0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
57.3%
Draw
26.4%
Burnley win
16.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.77–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.01 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 1.45 xGBurnley 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24' |
 Burnley |
James Ward-Prowse | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dilane Bakwa |
| 46' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Wood |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 64' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Omari Hutchinson |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ryan Yates |
| 82' |
Burnley |
Maxime Estève | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 86' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 97' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolás Domínguez |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jaidon Anthony AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.53 |
| Florentino Luís DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Edwards AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lyle Foster Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Omari Hutchinson AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.69 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Chris Wood FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Jair Sub | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dilane Bakwa AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Igor Jesus Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Murillo DC | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Morato Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |