Nottingham Forest v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 17
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 1.20
Goals − xG
-2.08 – +0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
24.9%
Draw
25.8%
Chelsea win
49.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.62 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 2.08 xGChelsea 2.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Taiwo Awoniyi |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 28' |
 Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Reece James |
| 38' |
Chelsea |
Andrey Santos | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Andrey Santos | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Josh Acheampong | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Josh Acheampong | 0.56 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Pedro Neto |
| 51' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oleksandr Zinchenko |
| 61' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.39 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 65' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 68' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 68' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trevoh Chalobah |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 82' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.47 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Ibrahim Sangare MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.67 |
| Neco Williams DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.64 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Murillo DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Douglas Luiz MC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Igor Jesus Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.96 |
| Nicolò Savona Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Wood Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reece James DR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Malo Gusto DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| Josh Acheampong DC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 79 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Andrey Santos AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Romeo Lavia DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moisés Caicedo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Estêvão Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |