Nottingham Forest v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 12
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-0.45 – +0.59
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
40.4%
Draw
23.6%
Chelsea win
36.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.52 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 2.45 xGChelsea 2.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Willy Boly |
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Danilo |
| 5' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 7' |
 Chelsea |
Mykhailo Mudryk | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cole Palmer |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' | Nottingham Forest | Willy Boly | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Thiago Silva | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 38' |
Chelsea |
Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Conor Gallagher | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Murillo |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Gonzalo Montiel |
| 53' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Danilo | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gonzalo Montiel |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 62' |
Chelsea |
Thiago Silva | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Cole Palmer |
| 66' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.18 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 70' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Willy Boly |
| 73' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 79' |
Chelsea |
Raheem Sterling | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Moisés Caicedo |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Goal | Reece James |
| 91' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Raheem Sterling |
| 97' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White MR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1.38 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| Willy Boly DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Ola Aina DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Danilo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Ryan Yates MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gonzalo Montiel DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Harry Toffolo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.74 | 1.50 |
| Thiago Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 2.05 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Conor Gallagher DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Mykhailo Mudryk AML | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Raheem Sterling Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 1.12 |
| Reece James Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.56 |