Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 1.10
Goals − xG
+0.01 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
35.8%
Draw
31.2%
Crystal Palace win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.57 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.99 xGCrystal Palace 1.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 2' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 9' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 12' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Will Hughes |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 49' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 57' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 61' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 65' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 68' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Crystal Palace |
Christantus Uche | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 81' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 87' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Richards |
| 89' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 89' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.21 | 0.84 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Matz Sels GK | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AMR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Neco Williams DL | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morato Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Angus Gunn Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Dan Ndoye Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Brennan Johnson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Yeremi Pino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Chadi Riad DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Christantus Uche Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |