Nottingham Forest v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 5
On target
2 – 0
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-0.82 – -0.93
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
32.5%
Draw
29.3%
Fulham win
38.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing sharply below their chances — 10.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDDWLLLD last 10
scored 9
from 19.7 xG
conceded 14
from 14.7 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLLLDDLWW last 10
scored 11
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 14.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.29 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.82 xGFulham 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Igor Jesus |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
| 37' |
 Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.74 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 57' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Murillo |
| 64' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 95' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.51 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Dan Ndoye Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| James McAtee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.74 | 0.05 |
| Alex Iwobi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Joshua King AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Oscar Bobb AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Samuel Chukwueze Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sasa Lukic Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Sessegnon Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |