Nottingham Forest v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 7
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.32 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.77 – -0.46
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
68.4%
Draw
18.2%
Ipswich win
13.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.28–0.90 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 1.77 xGIpswich 0.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 3' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 22' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Leif Davis |
| 25' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 28' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 32' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Liam Delap |
| 34' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 53' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jota Silva |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 68' |
Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 83' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jack Taylor |
| 83' |
Ipswich |
Jack Taylor | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 85' |
Ipswich |
Cameron Burgess | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Taylor |
| 94' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Sosa |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Jota Silva AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.11 |
| Neco Williams DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Moreno Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morato Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Sosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Liam Delap FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dara O'Shea DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Chaplin AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sammie Szmodics AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Wes Burns Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Harry Clarke Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nathan Broadhead Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |