Nottingham Forest v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+0.51 – +0.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
39.4%
Draw
27.5%
Leeds United win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.15–1.20 | 1-1 13% | 42% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 2.49 xGLeeds United 0.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 2' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Neco Williams |
| 11' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 11' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brenden Aaronson |
| 14' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Savona |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolò Savona |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 52' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Omari Hutchinson |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel James |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 91' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Noah Okafor |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Dan Ndoye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| Nicolò Savona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morato Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Ampadu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Okafor ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Brenden Aaronson MR | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daniel James Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Joël Piroe Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pascal Struijk Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |