Nottingham Forest v Leicester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+0.20 – +0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
64.9%
Draw
20.9%
Leicester City win
14.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.00–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.00–0.90 | 1-0 11% | 55% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 1.80 xGLeicester City 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Leicester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 15' |
 Leicester City |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kasey McAteer |
| 15' |
Leicester City |
Conor Coady | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.52 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 40' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
| 46' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jordan Ayew |
| 51' |
Leicester City |
James Justin | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 57' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Wood |
| 65' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 68' |
Leicester City |
Wout Faes | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 75' |
Leicester City |
Kasey McAteer | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luke Thomas |
| 79' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Leicester City |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamie Vardy |
| 91' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 95' |
Leicester City |
Jeremy Monga | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wilfred Ndidi |
| 96' |
Leicester City |
Jeremy Monga | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Yates |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.04 | 0.99 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.68 | 0.22 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Coady DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| James Justin DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jakub Stolarczyk GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Wilfred Ndidi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Kasey McAteer AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Luke Thomas DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Ayew AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Skipp DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Boubakary Soumare Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jeremy Monga Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Victor Kristiansen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Caleb Okoli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |