Nottingham Forest v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.27
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.94 – -1.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
21.7%
Draw
29.3%
Liverpool win
49.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–1.86 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.94 xGLiverpool 2.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 13' |
 Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 13' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 23' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 41' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 53' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 61' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 70' | Nottingham Forest | Dilane Bakwa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 85' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Lucca |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
| 94' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.83 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.07 | 0.39 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Dilane Bakwa Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dan Ndoye Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Lucca Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James McAtee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.25 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.11 |
| Curtis Jones AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |