Nottingham Forest v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 18
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.37
Goals − xG
+0.41 – +1.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
34.4%
Draw
27.5%
Manchester United win
38.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.57 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 1.59 xGManchester United 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 5' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 7' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 7' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 14' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 27' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 41' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 42' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ryan Yates |
| 49' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolò Savona | 0.69 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 73' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Casemiro |
| 73' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Casemiro |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 84' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 86' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Taiwo Awoniyi |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 93' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Savona DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dan Ndoye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Douglas Luiz DMC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Sangare Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casemiro MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Amad Diallo Traore DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Diogo Dalot DML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Dorgu Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |