Nottingham Forest v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.98
Goals − xG
-0.72 – +0.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
52.1%
Draw
23.5%
West Ham United win
24.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.77–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.82–1.08 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 0.72 xGWest Ham United 2.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 14' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 17' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 38' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 46' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 55' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James McAtee |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 67' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 68' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 71' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 80' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 83' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Crysencio Summerville |
| 87' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 97' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 99' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.37 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Chris Wood FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Dan Ndoye AMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| James McAtee Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Igor Jesus Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.10 | 0.65 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| Mateus Fernandes AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| James Ward-Prowse DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Andy Irving Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.96 |