Nottingham Forest v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 4
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.63 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.65 – -0.13
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
56.7%
Draw
21.8%
West Ham United win
21.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.12 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 2.35 xGWest Ham United 0.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 26' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Álex Moreno |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Milenkovic |
| 45' |
 West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michail Antonio |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Elliot Anderson |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Álex Moreno | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 74' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 87' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 95' | Nottingham Forest | Ramón Sosa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.07 | 0.76 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 1.38 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Nicolás Domínguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1.17 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Chris Wood FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.71 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 0.59 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ramón Sosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric da Silva Moreira Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emerson DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Crysencio Summerville AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edson Álvarez MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michail Antonio Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Irving Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |