Nottingham Forest v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 11 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
35 – 7
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.74 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-3.69 – -0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nottingham Forest win
49.3%
Draw
28.8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
21.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–0.99 | 1-0 13% | 40% | 46% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nottingham Forest 3.69 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nottingham Forest attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ola Aina |
| 2' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Sangare |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 11' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 12' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 17' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Angel Gomes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Armstrong |
| 26' | Nottingham Forest | Lorenzo Lucca | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Lorenzo Lucca | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 38' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Bueno |
| 44' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Morato | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 53' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 54' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 58' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 61' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 67' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Angel Gomes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Armstrong |
| 70' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.68 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Morato | 0.83 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 79' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morato |
| 89' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 91' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 91' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tolu Arokodare |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.01 | 0.84 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.27 | 0.89 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 1.06 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.86 | 1.56 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo Lucca FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 1.55 |
| Dan Ndoye Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Igor Jesus Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Mané AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Tolu Arokodare FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Angel Gomes MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Hugo Bueno ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Rodrigo Gomes MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Møller Wolfe Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |