Novaci v Detonit Plachkovica — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 September 2026 · MKD-Second League · 2627
MKD-Second League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 19.1%
- 1-0 16.3%
- 0-0 14.4%
- 1-1 10.6%
- 0-2 8.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 26.1% | Under 2.5 | 73.9% |
| BTTS yes | 31.5% | BTTS no | 68.5% |
| Novaci 1+ | 55.1% | Novaci 2+ | 19.2% |
| Detonit Plachkovica 1+ | 62.0% | Detonit Plachkovica 2+ | 25.2% |
Expected goals 0.80 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Detonit Plachkovica carry the stronger rating, 1514 Elo against 1486.
- Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
- Away from home Detonit Plachkovica average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Novaci have only 1 matches on record.
- Detonit Plachkovica have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Detonit Plachkovica have an estimated 40.7% win probability, against 31.5% for Novaci and 27.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.80 for Novaci and 0.97 for Detonit Plachkovica.
Why Novaci
At home Novaci average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.8%. A combined 1.77 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 0.80 to 0.97.
Why Detonit Plachkovica can win
Detonit Plachkovica carry the stronger rating, 1514 Elo against 1486. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Detonit Plachkovica average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Novaci, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Detonit Plachkovica, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Novaci: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Detonit Plachkovica: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
Detonit Plachkovica are the model's most likely outcome at 40.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 19.1%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 0.80–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.52–0.83 | 0-1 24% | 16% | 21% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.