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Ñublense v Cobresal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Ñublense win
53.2%
model 53.7%
Draw
19.1%
model 19.8%
Cobresal win
27.7%
model 26.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 11.6%
  2. 2-1 9.7%
  3. 1-1 9.2%
  4. 2-0 8.5%
  5. 0-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.555.3% Under 2.544.7%
BTTS yes54.4% BTTS no45.6%
Ñublense 1+82.7% Ñublense 2+52.4%
Cobresal 1+68.0% Cobresal 2+31.5%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.14. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
Over 1.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 72%
77.7% fair odds 1.29
moderate signal · 1766 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Ñublense not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Ñublense carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1417.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Ñublense have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 27.7% for Cobresal and 19.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.76 for Ñublense and 1.14 for Cobresal.

Why Ñublense

Ñublense carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1417.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Cobresal can win

Nothing in the data singles out Cobresal.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ñublense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cobresal, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ñublense: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cobresal: 41% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Ñublense are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.6%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.76–1.14 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.70–1.09 1-0 12% 53% 52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to win 53.4% 51.6% 49.0% 1.05× 1.94
Cobresal to win 26.4% 27.9% 30.0% 0.93× 3.58
Draw 20.2% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense & not both score 29.3% 25.2% 26.8% 0.94× 3.97
Ñublense & both teams score 24.1% 21.8% 22.4% 0.97× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 16.0% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Cobresal & not both score 14.1% 13.3% 16.8% 0.79× 7.54
Cobresal & both teams score 12.3% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.54
Draw & not both score 4.2% 4.9% 4.9% 1.00× 20.49
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense & over 1.5 41.0% 40.3% 36.1% 1.12× 2.48
Ñublense & under 3.5 35.9% 34.9% 34.1% 1.02× 2.87
Ñublense & over 2.5 32.2% 30.8% 29.3% 1.05× 3.25
Ñublense & under 2.5 21.2% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.63
Cobresal & under 3.5 19.9% 18.0% 23.4% 0.77× 5.55
Ñublense & over 3.5 17.5% 18.0% 15.1% 1.19× 5.56
Cobresal & over 1.5 17.8% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.0% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 13.7% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.7% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
Cobresal & over 2.5 14.1% 12.8% 16.6% 0.77× 7.79
Ñublense & under 1.5 12.4% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
Cobresal & under 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 13.7% 0.94× 7.79
Cobresal & under 1.5 8.6% 7.9% 10.2% 0.77× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.5% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.5% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Cobresal & over 3.5 6.5% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 4.2% 4.8% 4.9% 0.98× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (1UP) 66.8% 70.2% — — 1.42
Cobresal (1UP) 43.4% 38.7% — — 2.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (2UP) 53.4% 55.4% — — 1.81
Cobresal (2UP) 26.4% 25.1% — — 3.98
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to win 2nd half 42.2% 42.0% — — 2.38
2nd half drawn 33.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
Cobresal to win 2nd half 24.7% 24.4% — — 4.10
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.9% 87.0% — — 1.15
Cobresal under 0.5 in 2nd half 51.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Cobresal over 0.5 in 2nd half 48.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Cobresal over 1.5 in 2nd half 14.1% 13.0% — — 7.71
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.8% 74.5% — — 1.34
Ñublense over 0.5 in 2nd half 61.9% 63.1% — — 1.59
Ñublense under 0.5 in 2nd half 38.1% 36.9% — — 2.71
Ñublense over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.2% 25.5% — — 3.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (+2.5) 87.9% 88.5% 89.5% 0.99× 1.13
Ñublense (+0.5) 73.6% 73.7% 70.0% 1.05× 1.36
Cobresal (+1.5) 72.1% 73.7% 76.8% 0.96× 1.36
Ñublense (-0.5) 53.4% 52.4% 49.0% 1.07× 1.91
Cobresal (+0.5) 46.6% 47.6% 51.0% 0.93× 2.10
Ñublense (-1.5) 27.9% 26.3% 23.2% 1.14× 3.80
Cobresal (-0.5) 26.4% 26.3% 30.0% 0.88× 3.80
Ñublense (-2.5) 12.1% 11.5% 10.5% 1.10× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to concede 81.6% 81.5% 78.5% 1.04× 1.23
Cobresal clean sheet 18.4% 18.5% 21.5% 0.86× 5.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to concede in 1st half 51.8% 50.8% — — 1.97
Cobresal clean sheet in 1st half 48.2% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to concede in 2nd half 61.9% 61.7% — — 1.62
Cobresal clean sheet in 2nd half 38.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 6.5 corners 89.0% 85.2% — — 1.17
Cobresal under 5.5 corners 80.9% 81.4% — — 1.23
Cobresal under 4.5 corners 68.7% 67.6% — — 1.48
Cobresal over 2.5 corners 66.0% 67.6% — — 1.48
Cobresal under 3.5 corners 52.6% 53.1% — — 1.88
Cobresal over 3.5 corners 47.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Cobresal under 2.5 corners 34.0% 32.4% — — 3.09
Cobresal over 4.5 corners 31.3% 32.4% — — 3.09
Cobresal over 5.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% — — 5.38
Cobresal over 6.5 corners 11.0% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 3.5 goals 97.5% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Cobresal under 2.5 goals 90.2% 92.3% 88.3% 1.05× 1.08
Cobresal under 1.5 goals 70.2% 71.8% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
Cobresal over 0.5 goals 66.5% 68.0% 68.5% 0.99× 1.47
Cobresal under 0.5 goals 33.5% 32.0% 31.5% 1.02× 3.13
Cobresal over 1.5 goals 29.8% 28.2% 31.5% 0.90× 3.55
Cobresal over 2.5 goals 9.8% 7.7% 11.7% 0.65× 13.05
Cobresal over 3.5 goals 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.84
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 1.5 in 1st half 92.8% 93.9% — — 1.06
Cobresal under 0.5 in 1st half 64.6% 63.3% — — 1.58
Cobresal over 0.5 in 1st half 35.4% 36.7% — — 2.73
Cobresal over 1.5 in 1st half 7.2% 6.1% — — 16.51
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal scores equally in both 43.8% 43.7% — — 2.29
Cobresal scores more in 2nd half 35.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
Cobresal scores more in 1st half 20.9% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (away no bet) 72.5% 68.4% 69.8% 0.98× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 27.5% 31.6% 30.2% 1.05× 3.16
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal even goals 55.6% 56.9% 53.7% 1.06× 1.76
Cobresal odd goals 44.4% 43.1% 46.3% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.3% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.7% 16.8% — — 5.97
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 64.1% 57.6% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 35.9% 42.4% — — 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.6% 55.0% — — 1.82
Ñublense to score 2+ in a row 42.4% 38.7% — — 2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.6% 19.5% — — 5.13
Cobresal to score 2+ in a row 21.4% 19.5% — — 5.13
Ñublense to score 3+ in a row 16.7% 16.1% — — 6.20
Cobresal to score 3+ in a row 5.2% 5.4% — — 18.36
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense corners (+3.5) 94.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Ñublense corners (+2.5) 90.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Ñublense corners (+1.5) 84.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
Cobresal corners (+3.5) 65.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
Ñublense corners (-1.5) 56.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Cobresal corners (+2.5) 54.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Ñublense corners (-2.5) 45.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
Cobresal corners (+1.5) 43.8% 42.9% — — 2.33
Ñublense corners (-3.5) 34.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
Cobresal corners (-1.5) 15.7% 20.2% — — 4.95
Cobresal corners (-2.5) 9.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Cobresal corners (-3.5) 5.8% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 42.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 27.8% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 57.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 53.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 46.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 42.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.6% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 32.1% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.4% 11.5% 13.2% 0.87× 8.71
0-1 8.6% 7.4% 10.2% 0.72× 13.51
1-1 9.5% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
2-0 8.8% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-2 6.2% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-2 5.3% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
3-1 5.5% 7.4% 4.6% 1.60× 13.51
3-0 5.0% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.29
0-0 4.2% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.30
0-2 3.7% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.30
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.30
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
4-1 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 3.4% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (2nd half DNB) 63.1% 63.0% — — 1.59
Cobresal (2nd half DNB) 36.9% 37.0% — — 2.71
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense leading at HT (DNB) 65.8% 73.4% — — 1.36
Cobresal leading at HT (DNB) 34.2% 26.6% — — 3.76
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense or Cobresal (12) 79.8% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
Ñublense or draw (1X) 73.6% 72.1% 70.0% 1.03× 1.39
Cobresal or draw (X2) 46.6% 48.4% 51.0% 0.95× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense or draw at HT 79.9% 79.7% — — 1.25
Cobresal or draw at HT 61.3% 60.9% — — 1.64
Ñublense or Cobresal at HT 58.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense or draw (1UP) 73.6% 79.7% — — 1.26
Cobresal or draw (1UP) 46.6% 52.9% — — 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense or draw in 2nd half 75.3% 75.6% — — 1.32
Ñublense or Cobresal in 2nd half 66.9% 66.0% — — 1.52
Cobresal or draw in 2nd half 57.8% 58.0% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.8% 61.4% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.2% 38.6% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (DNB) 66.9% 67.4% 62.0% 1.09× 1.48
Cobresal (DNB) 33.1% 32.6% 38.0% 0.86× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to score first 58.2% 62.5% — — 1.60
Cobresal to score first 37.5% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 4.2% 4.4% — — 22.79
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.4% 51.3% 52.0% 0.99× 1.95
Not both teams to score 47.6% 48.7% 48.0% 1.01× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.9% 41.6% 42.9% 0.97× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 37.8% 38.5% 38.0% 1.01× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 9.9% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.06
Both score & under 2.5 9.5% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.9% 82.7% 84.6% 0.98× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 15.1% 17.3% 15.4% 1.13× 5.77
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.9% 73.6% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.1% 26.4% — — 3.78
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.3% 60.2% — — 1.66
Both score 2nd half only 23.7% 21.3% — — 4.70
Both score 1st half only 12.5% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 5.5% 6.7% — — 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.0% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.0% 16.6% — — 6.04
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.3% 52.7% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 45.7% 47.3% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.2% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
4-6 goals 28.1% 26.6% 26.8% 0.99× 3.76
0-1 goals 25.2% 26.6% 27.8% 0.96× 3.76
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.32
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.78
Cobresal to score exactly 0 33.5% 33.8% 31.5% 1.08× 2.96
Cobresal to score exactly 2 20.0% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
Cobresal to score 3+ 9.8% 8.6% 11.7% 0.73× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to score exactly 1 31.1% 32.6% 31.7% 1.03× 3.07
Ñublense to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.6% 26.3% 1.01× 3.77
Ñublense to score 3+ 24.1% 23.3% 21.0% 1.11× 4.29
Ñublense to score exactly 0 18.4% 18.8% 21.5% 0.88× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.2% 42.5% — — 2.35
Ñublense leading at HT 38.7% 39.1% — — 2.56
Cobresal leading at HT 20.1% 20.3% — — 4.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense -1: 2 46.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Ñublense -1: 1 27.9% 26.5% — — 3.77
Ñublense -1: X 25.5% 26.5% — — 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (0:1) 46.6% 46.1% 51.0% 0.90× 2.17
Ñublense (0:1) 27.9% 27.0% 23.2% 1.17× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 25.5% 27.0% 26.1% 1.03× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (0:2) 72.1% 75.6% 76.8% 0.98× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.7% 15.2% 12.9% 1.18× 6.56
Ñublense (0:2) 12.1% 11.0% 10.5% 1.05× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (0:3) 87.9% 90.6% 89.5% 1.01× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.8% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.24
Ñublense (0:3) 4.3% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 41.95
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (0:4) 95.7% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.0% 1.2% 4.1% 0.30× 81.63
Ñublense (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.84× 81.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (1:0) 73.6% 72.5% 70.0% 1.04× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 17.1% 17.1% 20.0% 0.85× 5.85
Cobresal (1:0) 9.3% 6.9% 10.2% 0.67× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (2:0) 90.7% 94.0% 89.8% 1.05× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 1.01× 15.67
Cobresal (2:0) 2.7% 2.3% 4.1% 0.55× 43.75
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.6% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 28.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 21.8% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to concede 66.5% 66.7% 68.5% 0.97× 1.50
Ñublense clean sheet 33.5% 33.3% 31.5% 1.06× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense clean sheet in 1st half 64.6% 63.3% — — 1.58
Ñublense to concede in 1st half 35.4% 36.7% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense clean sheet in 2nd half 51.9% 52.5% — — 1.91
Ñublense to concede in 2nd half 48.1% 47.5% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense over 2.5 corners 87.6% 86.2% — — 1.16
Ñublense over 3.5 corners 76.6% 76.5% — — 1.31
Ñublense over 4.5 corners 63.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
Ñublense under 6.5 corners 62.7% 62.3% — — 1.61
Ñublense under 5.5 corners 50.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Ñublense over 5.5 corners 49.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Ñublense over 6.5 corners 37.3% 37.7% — — 2.65
Ñublense under 4.5 corners 36.6% 37.7% — — 2.65
Ñublense under 3.5 corners 23.4% 23.5% — — 4.26
Ñublense under 2.5 corners 12.4% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 3.5 goals 90.8% 92.2% 91.0% 1.01× 1.09
Ñublense over 0.5 goals 81.6% 82.2% 78.5% 1.05× 1.22
Ñublense under 2.5 goals 75.9% 77.8% 79.0% 0.98× 1.29
Ñublense over 1.5 goals 50.5% 53.2% 47.1% 1.13× 1.88
Ñublense under 1.5 goals 49.5% 46.8% 52.9% 0.88× 2.14
Ñublense over 2.5 goals 24.1% 22.2% 21.0% 1.06× 4.50
Ñublense under 0.5 goals 18.4% 17.8% 21.5% 0.83× 5.62
Ñublense over 3.5 goals 9.2% 7.8% 9.0% 0.86× 12.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 1st half 83.4% 84.2% — — 1.19
Ñublense over 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 50.6% — — 1.98
Ñublense under 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 49.4% — — 2.03
Ñublense over 1.5 in 1st half 16.6% 15.8% — — 6.34
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense scores more in 2nd half 39.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
Ñublense scores equally in both 33.8% 33.2% — — 3.01
Ñublense scores more in 1st half 26.5% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (home no bet) 56.6% 56.4% 58.6% 0.96× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.4% 43.6% 41.4% 1.05× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense even goals 51.7% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Ñublense odd goals 48.3% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.8% 33.4% — — 3.00
HT 1-0 23.0% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-1 14.0% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 9.6% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 8.3% 6.9% — — 14.53
Any other HT score 4.7% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense at HT / Ñublense at FT 32.2% 32.8% — — 3.05
Draw at HT / Ñublense at FT 18.5% 16.8% — — 5.96
Cobresal at HT / Cobresal at FT 13.4% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.5% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Cobresal at FT 11.2% 12.7% — — 7.90
Ñublense at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.87
Cobresal at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% — — 28.89
Cobresal at HT / Ñublense at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.94
Ñublense at HT / Cobresal at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to score last 58.0% 56.7% — — 1.76
Cobresal to score last 37.8% 38.7% — — 2.59
No goal scored 4.2% 4.4% — — 22.79
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.8% 95.5% — — 1.05
Ñublense to lead by 1 at any time 66.8% 69.3% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.6% 44.4% — — 2.25
Cobresal to lead by 1 at any time 43.4% 39.2% — — 2.55
Ñublense to lead by 2 at any time 34.5% 29.8% — — 3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.5% 14.8% — — 6.74
Ñublense to lead by 3 at any time 14.6% 10.6% — — 9.40
Cobresal to lead by 2 at any time 14.3% 10.6% — — 9.40
Cobresal to lead by 3 at any time 3.9% 1.6% — — 61.49
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense most corners 66.9% 64.5% — — 1.55
Cobresal most corners 23.5% 25.9% — — 3.86
Corners level 9.6% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.4% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.7% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
2-6 goals 72.4% 72.3% 70.0% 1.03× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.4% 68.8% 64.4% 1.07× 1.45
1-3 goals 65.2% 68.8% 66.3% 1.04× 1.45
2-4 goals 59.7% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
3-6 goals 50.4% 53.1% 50.7% 1.05× 1.88
3-5 goals 46.4% 48.4% 45.1% 1.07× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.2% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
1-2 goals 43.0% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.7% 39.2% 39.0% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.1% 30.2% 26.8% 1.13× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.1% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.7% 14.8% 12.0% 1.24× 6.76
7+ goals 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.05× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense never behind 52.3% 62.3% — — 1.60
Cobresal never behind 29.0% 29.9% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.4% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.6% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.2% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.8% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.6% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.4% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.8% 95.4% 95.1% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.0% 82.3% 85.9% 0.96× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 74.8% 72.5% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
Under 3.5 goals 69.5% 66.3% 71.0% 0.93× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.8% 52.5% 52.9% 0.99× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 47.2% 47.5% 47.1% 1.01× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 30.5% 33.7% 29.0% 1.16× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 25.2% 27.5% 27.8% 0.99× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 15.0% 17.7% 14.1% 1.25× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 8.0% 0.96× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 4.2% 4.6% 4.9% 0.94× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.0% 92.4% 91.4% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.2% 81.1% 83.4% 0.97× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.6% 67.5% 65.6% 1.03× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.7% 61.9% 61.9% 1.00× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.3% 38.1% 38.1% 1.00× 2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.4% 32.5% 34.4% 0.94× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.8% 18.9% 16.6% 1.14× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.0% 7.6% 8.6% 0.88× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.62
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.7% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.2% 68.7% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.8% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.4% — — 3.19
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.8% 31.3% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.3% 10.9% — — 9.16
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.9% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.8% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.2% 20.4% — — 4.90
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.1% 17.1% — — 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal not to score in both halves 83.0% 84.3% — — 1.19
Ñublense not to score in both halves 67.9% 70.1% — — 1.43
Ñublense to score in both halves 32.1% 29.9% — — 3.34
Cobresal to score in both halves 17.0% 15.7% — — 6.38
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.4% 53.8% 52.0% 1.04× 1.86
Only Ñublense scores 29.3% 26.1% 26.8% 0.97× 3.83
Only Cobresal scores 14.1% 11.0% 16.8% 0.66× 9.06
Neither team scores 4.2% 4.6% 4.9% 0.95× 21.55
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.0% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 21.0% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 15.5% 17.5% 15.1% 1.15× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.6% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.13
6 or more goals 6.4% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 4.2% 4.5% 4.9% 0.92× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 37.0% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 30.8% 35.6% — — 2.81
2 goals in 1st half 20.9% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 11.3% 10.8% — — 9.24
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.6% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 33.4% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 19.1% 16.8% — — 5.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal not to win both halves 95.3% 97.2% — — 1.03
Ñublense not to win both halves 84.1% 83.5% — — 1.20
Ñublense to win both halves 15.9% 16.5% — — 6.08
Cobresal to win both halves 4.7% 2.8% — — 35.30
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to win either half 65.0% 65.1% — — 1.54
Cobresal to win neither half 60.0% 59.1% — — 1.69
Cobresal to win either half 40.0% 40.9% — — 2.45
Ñublense to win neither half 35.0% 34.9% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal not to win to nil 85.9% 88.1% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
Ñublense not to win to nil 70.7% 75.3% 73.2% 1.03× 1.33
Ñublense to win to nil 29.3% 24.7% 26.8% 0.92× 4.04
Cobresal to win to nil 14.1% 11.9% 16.8% 0.71× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense by 1 25.5% 27.9% 26.1% 1.07× 3.59
Draw 20.2% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Cobresal by 1 17.1% 17.0% 20.0% 0.85× 5.87
Ñublense by 2 15.7% 17.0% 12.9% 1.32× 5.87
Ñublense by 3+ 12.1% 11.8% 10.5% 1.12× 8.51
Cobresal by 2 6.5% 7.2% 6.3% 1.13× 13.91
Cobresal by 3+ 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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