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Ñublense v Colo Colo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Ñublense win
27.8%
model 27.9%
Draw
19.1%
model 19.7%
Colo Colo win
53.1%
model 52.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 10.8%
  2. 1-2 9.6%
  3. 1-1 9.0%
  4. 0-2 7.9%
  5. 1-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.557.4% Under 2.542.6%
BTTS yes56.5% BTTS no43.5%
Ñublense 1+70.3% Ñublense 2+34.2%
Colo Colo 1+83.1% Colo Colo 2+53.0%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
86/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Colo Colo (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 30%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Colo Colo not to win both halves
Win both halves
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Colo Colo carry the stronger rating, 1692 Elo against 1504.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Colo Colo have an estimated 53.1% win probability, against 27.8% for Ñublense and 19.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.21 for Ñublense and 1.78 for Colo Colo.

Why Ñublense

Nothing in the data singles out Ñublense.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Colo Colo can win

Colo Colo carry the stronger rating, 1692 Elo against 1504. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ñublense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Colo Colo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ñublense: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Colo Colo: 59% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Colo Colo are the model's most likely outcome at 53.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.21–1.78 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.20–1.72 0-1 11% 56% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to win 51.5% 51.5% 30.0% 1.72× 1.94
Ñublense to win 28.5% 27.9% 49.0% 0.57× 3.58
Draw 20.0% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo & not both score 26.5% 25.2% 16.8% 1.50× 3.97
Colo Colo & both teams score 24.9% 21.8% 13.4% 1.63× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 16.5% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Ñublense & not both score 14.4% 13.3% 26.8% 0.49× 7.54
Ñublense & both teams score 14.2% 13.3% 22.4% 0.59× 7.54
Draw & not both score 3.5% 4.9% 4.9% 1.00× 20.52
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo & over 1.5 40.4% 40.2% 20.0% 2.01× 2.49
Colo Colo & under 3.5 33.2% 30.8% 23.4% 1.31× 3.25
Colo Colo & over 2.5 32.4% 30.8% 16.6% 1.85× 3.25
Ñublense & over 1.5 20.2% 21.6% 36.1% 0.60× 4.63
Ñublense & under 3.5 20.4% 21.6% 34.1% 0.63× 4.63
Colo Colo & under 2.5 19.1% 18.0% 13.7% 1.32× 5.55
Colo Colo & over 3.5 18.2% 18.0% 6.8% 2.64× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.5% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Ñublense & over 2.5 16.4% 18.0% 29.3% 0.62× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 12.7% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 12.7% 12.8% 13.9% 0.92× 7.79
Ñublense & under 2.5 12.2% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
Colo Colo & under 1.5 11.1% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Ñublense & under 1.5 8.3% 7.9% 13.2% 0.60× 12.63
Ñublense & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 15.1% 0.52× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.3% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.3% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.5% 4.8% 4.9% 0.98× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (1UP) 66.0% 70.1% — — 1.43
Ñublense (1UP) 46.3% 43.8% — — 2.29
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (2UP) 51.5% 55.2% — — 1.81
Ñublense (2UP) 28.5% 25.3% — — 3.96
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to win 2nd half 43.8% 42.1% — — 2.38
2nd half drawn 31.8% 34.0% — — 2.94
Ñublense to win 2nd half 24.5% 24.4% — — 4.10
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo under 1.5 in 2nd half 72.3% 75.5% — — 1.32
Colo Colo over 0.5 in 2nd half 64.5% 60.4% — — 1.66
Colo Colo under 0.5 in 2nd half 35.5% 39.6% — — 2.53
Colo Colo over 1.5 in 2nd half 27.7% 24.5% — — 4.09
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.9% 82.5% — — 1.21
Ñublense under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.4% 54.9% — — 1.82
Ñublense over 0.5 in 2nd half 49.6% 45.1% — — 2.22
Ñublense over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.1% 17.5% — — 5.73
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (+2.5) 96.6% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Colo Colo (+1.5) 89.2% 88.5% 76.8% 1.15× 1.13
Colo Colo (+0.5) 71.5% 73.7% 51.0% 1.44× 1.36
Colo Colo (-0.5) 51.5% 52.4% 30.0% 1.75× 1.91
Ñublense (+0.5) 48.5% 47.6% 70.0% 0.68× 2.10
Ñublense (-0.5) 28.5% 26.3% 49.0% 0.54× 3.80
Ñublense (-1.5) 10.8% 11.5% 23.2% 0.50× 8.68
Ñublense (-2.5) 3.4% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 27.12
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to concede 70.0% 72.4% 78.5% 0.92× 1.38
Colo Colo clean sheet 30.0% 27.6% 21.5% 1.29× 3.62
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo clean sheet in 1st half 59.6% 56.6% — — 1.77
Colo Colo to concede in 1st half 40.4% 43.4% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo clean sheet in 2nd half 50.4% 54.4% — — 1.84
Colo Colo to concede in 2nd half 49.6% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo under 6.5 corners 80.3% 81.4% — — 1.23
Colo Colo over 2.5 corners 76.4% 76.0% — — 1.32
Colo Colo under 5.5 corners 69.6% 67.6% — — 1.48
Colo Colo over 3.5 corners 60.3% 61.7% — — 1.62
Colo Colo under 4.5 corners 55.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Colo Colo over 4.5 corners 44.2% 42.8% — — 2.34
Colo Colo under 3.5 corners 39.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
Colo Colo over 5.5 corners 30.4% 32.4% — — 3.09
Colo Colo under 2.5 corners 23.6% 24.0% — — 4.18
Colo Colo over 6.5 corners 19.7% 18.6% — — 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo under 3.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 97.1% 0.95× 1.08
Colo Colo over 0.5 goals 82.2% 81.5% 68.5% 1.19× 1.23
Colo Colo under 2.5 goals 75.1% 76.2% 88.3% 0.86× 1.31
Colo Colo over 1.5 goals 51.4% 53.5% 31.5% 1.70× 1.87
Colo Colo under 1.5 goals 48.6% 46.5% 68.5% 0.68× 2.15
Colo Colo over 2.5 goals 24.9% 23.8% 11.7% 2.03× 4.21
Colo Colo under 0.5 goals 17.8% 18.5% 31.5% 0.59× 5.41
Colo Colo over 3.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 2.9% 2.62× 13.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo under 1.5 in 1st half 84.8% 82.8% — — 1.21
Colo Colo under 0.5 in 1st half 50.2% 55.7% — — 1.80
Colo Colo over 0.5 in 1st half 49.8% 44.3% — — 2.26
Colo Colo over 1.5 in 1st half 15.2% 17.2% — — 5.83
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo scores more in 2nd half 43.0% 43.7% — — 2.29
Colo Colo scores equally in both 33.0% 33.3% — — 3.00
Colo Colo scores more in 1st half 24.0% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (away no bet) 58.8% 57.4% 69.8% 0.82× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.2% 42.6% 30.2% 1.41× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo even goals 51.6% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
Colo Colo odd goals 48.4% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.6% 83.2% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.4% 16.8% — — 5.94
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.1% 32.2% — — 3.11
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.8% 55.1% — — 1.82
Colo Colo to score 2+ in a row 42.6% 38.8% — — 2.58
Ñublense to score 2+ in a row 24.5% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.7% 19.5% — — 5.12
Colo Colo to score 3+ in a row 16.6% 16.1% — — 6.20
Ñublense to score 3+ in a row 6.5% 5.5% — — 18.26
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo corners (+3.5) 85.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Ñublense corners (+3.5) 83.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Colo Colo corners (+2.5) 78.0% 74.8% — — 1.34
Ñublense corners (+2.5) 75.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Colo Colo corners (+1.5) 68.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Ñublense corners (+1.5) 65.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Colo Colo corners (-1.5) 34.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
Ñublense corners (-1.5) 31.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
Colo Colo corners (-2.5) 24.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
Ñublense corners (-2.5) 22.0% 25.2% — — 3.97
Colo Colo corners (-3.5) 16.6% 20.2% — — 4.95
Ñublense corners (-3.5) 14.5% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 50.7% 45.2% — — 2.21
9-11 corners 28.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 21.0% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.3% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 79.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 71.0% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 61.5% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 60.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 8.5 corners 50.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 49.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 39.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 9.5 corners 38.5% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.0% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 21.0% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 14.7% 16.9% — — 5.91
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 11.1% 11.5% 10.2% 1.12× 8.72
1-1 9.2% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
1-2 9.6% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
0-2 8.0% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.51
1-0 8.3% 7.4% 13.2% 0.56× 13.51
2-1 6.7% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-3 5.5% 7.4% 2.2% 3.37× 13.51
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
0-0 3.5% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.30
0-3 4.6% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.29
0-4 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
1-4 2.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
2-0 3.9% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.30
2-3 3.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
3-0 1.6% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.31
3-1 2.7% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.30
3-2 2.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 0.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 3.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (2nd half DNB) 64.1% 63.1% — — 1.58
Ñublense (2nd half DNB) 35.9% 36.9% — — 2.71
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo leading at HT (DNB) 59.2% 55.8% — — 1.79
Ñublense leading at HT (DNB) 40.8% 44.2% — — 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense or Colo Colo (12) 80.0% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
Colo Colo or draw (X2) 71.5% 72.1% 51.0% 1.41× 1.39
Ñublense or draw (1X) 48.5% 48.5% 70.0% 0.69× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo or draw at HT 75.9% 79.5% — — 1.26
Ñublense or draw at HT 65.0% 67.1% — — 1.49
Ñublense or Colo Colo at HT 59.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo or draw (1UP) 71.5% 79.5% — — 1.26
Ñublense or draw (1UP) 48.5% 53.1% — — 1.88
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo or draw in 2nd half 75.5% 75.6% — — 1.32
Ñublense or Colo Colo in 2nd half 68.2% 66.0% — — 1.52
Ñublense or draw in 2nd half 56.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.8% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.2% 38.7% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (DNB) 64.3% 62.7% 38.0% 1.65× 1.59
Ñublense (DNB) 35.7% 37.3% 62.0% 0.60× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to score first 56.8% 62.4% — — 1.60
Ñublense to score first 39.7% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 3.5% 4.4% — — 22.90
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.6% 55.0% 52.0% 1.06× 1.82
Not both teams to score 44.4% 45.0% 48.0% 0.94× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.4% 44.3% 42.9% 1.03× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 34.7% 34.6% 38.0% 0.91× 2.89
Not both score & over 2.5 9.6% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.06
Both score & under 2.5 9.2% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.6% 82.6% 84.6% 0.98× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 17.4% 17.4% 15.4% 1.13× 5.76
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.7% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.3% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.3% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.9% 21.3% — — 4.69
Both score 1st half only 13.4% 10.7% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 6.4% 6.8% — — 14.79
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.2% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.8% 16.6% — — 6.01
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.6% 57.0% — — 1.75
A half without a goal 43.4% 43.0% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.5% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
4-6 goals 30.6% 30.7% 26.8% 1.14× 3.26
0-1 goals 22.9% 22.9% 27.8% 0.82× 4.36
7+ goals 3.0% 1.8% 2.4% 0.76× 54.26
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to score exactly 1 30.8% 33.8% 37.3% 0.91× 2.96
Colo Colo to score exactly 2 26.5% 27.4% 20.0% 1.37× 3.64
Colo Colo to score 3+ 24.9% 22.3% 11.7% 1.90× 4.49
Colo Colo to score exactly 0 17.8% 19.5% 31.5% 0.62× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to score exactly 1 36.1% 35.5% 31.7% 1.12× 2.81
Ñublense to score exactly 0 30.0% 32.6% 21.5% 1.52× 3.07
Ñublense to score exactly 2 21.7% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
Ñublense to score 3+ 12.1% 14.3% 21.0% 0.68× 7.00
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Colo Colo leading at HT 35.0% 32.9% — — 3.04
Ñublense leading at HT 24.1% 20.5% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo -1: 1 48.5% 46.9% — — 2.13
Colo Colo -1: 2 26.8% 26.5% — — 3.77
Colo Colo -1: X 24.6% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:1) 71.5% 71.0% 51.0% 1.39× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 17.7% 17.8% 26.1% 0.68× 5.61
Ñublense (0:1) 10.8% 13.7% 23.2% 0.59× 7.31
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:2) 89.2% 87.1% 76.8% 1.13× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 7.4% 7.7% 12.9% 0.59× 13.06
Ñublense (0:2) 3.4% 3.7% 10.5% 0.36× 26.70
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:3) 96.6% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.03
Ñublense (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:4) 99.1% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 4.1% 0.29× 81.89
Ñublense (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.95
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (1:0) 48.5% 49.2% 70.0% 0.70× 2.03
Colo Colo (1:0) 26.8% 25.1% 10.2% 2.45× 3.99
Draw (1:0) 24.6% 21.7% 20.0% 1.09× 4.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (2:0) 73.2% 76.5% 89.8% 0.85× 1.31
Draw (2:0) 15.1% 15.8% 6.3% 2.49× 6.33
Colo Colo (2:0) 11.7% 10.3% 4.1% 2.48× 9.72
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 51.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 28.1% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 21.0% 24.4% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to concede 82.2% 81.0% 68.5% 1.18× 1.24
Ñublense clean sheet 17.8% 19.0% 31.5% 0.61× 5.25
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense clean sheet in 1st half 50.2% 55.7% — — 1.80
Ñublense to concede in 1st half 49.8% 44.3% — — 2.26
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to concede in 2nd half 64.5% 59.9% — — 1.67
Ñublense clean sheet in 2nd half 35.5% 40.1% — — 2.50
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 6.5 corners 82.1% 81.0% — — 1.24
Ñublense over 2.5 corners 74.7% 71.9% — — 1.39
Ñublense under 5.5 corners 71.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
Ñublense over 3.5 corners 58.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Ñublense under 4.5 corners 58.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Ñublense under 3.5 corners 41.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Ñublense over 4.5 corners 41.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Ñublense over 5.5 corners 28.2% 28.1% — — 3.56
Ñublense under 2.5 corners 25.3% 28.1% — — 3.56
Ñublense over 6.5 corners 17.9% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 3.5 goals 96.6% 96.4% 91.0% 1.06× 1.04
Ñublense under 2.5 goals 87.9% 87.3% 79.0% 1.10× 1.15
Ñublense over 0.5 goals 70.0% 68.0% 78.5% 0.87× 1.47
Ñublense under 1.5 goals 66.2% 67.9% 52.9% 1.28× 1.47
Ñublense over 1.5 goals 33.8% 32.1% 47.1% 0.68× 3.12
Ñublense under 0.5 goals 30.0% 32.0% 21.5% 1.49× 3.12
Ñublense over 2.5 goals 12.1% 12.7% 21.0% 0.61× 7.86
Ñublense over 3.5 goals 3.4% 3.6% 9.0% 0.40× 27.54
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 1st half 90.5% 94.6% — — 1.06
Ñublense under 0.5 in 1st half 59.6% 56.4% — — 1.77
Ñublense over 0.5 in 1st half 40.4% 43.6% — — 2.29
Ñublense over 1.5 in 1st half 9.5% 5.4% — — 18.51
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense scores equally in both 41.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
Ñublense scores more in 2nd half 34.5% 33.3% — — 3.01
Ñublense scores more in 1st half 23.8% 21.0% — — 4.76
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (home no bet) 72.0% 66.8% 58.6% 1.14× 1.50
Draw (home no bet) 28.0% 33.2% 41.4% 0.80× 3.02
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense even goals 54.5% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Ñublense odd goals 45.5% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.6% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 0-1 21.0% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 1-0 15.8% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 10.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 0-2 7.1% 6.9% — — 14.55
Any other HT score 4.8% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-0 4.0% 2.4% — — 42.16
HT 1-2 3.7% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo at HT / Colo Colo at FT 29.0% 27.4% — — 3.64
Draw at HT / Colo Colo at FT 19.0% 16.8% — — 5.96
Ñublense at HT / Ñublense at FT 15.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Ñublense at FT 11.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.9% 12.7% — — 7.90
Ñublense at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.86
Colo Colo at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% — — 28.88
Ñublense at HT / Colo Colo at FT 3.4% 3.5% — — 28.91
Colo Colo at HT / Ñublense at FT 1.7% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to score last 56.7% 56.6% — — 1.77
Ñublense to score last 39.8% 38.8% — — 2.58
No goal scored 3.5% 4.4% — — 22.90
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.5% 95.6% — — 1.05
Colo Colo to lead by 1 at any time 66.0% 69.2% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.1% 50.6% — — 1.98
Ñublense to lead by 1 at any time 46.3% 44.3% — — 2.26
Colo Colo to lead by 2 at any time 33.9% 29.8% — — 3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.2% 14.9% — — 6.73
Ñublense to lead by 2 at any time 16.5% 14.8% — — 6.75
Colo Colo to lead by 3 at any time 14.4% 10.6% — — 9.40
Ñublense to lead by 3 at any time 4.9% 1.7% — — 60.60
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo most corners 45.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Ñublense most corners 42.5% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 11.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 88.9% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.3% 78.7% 81.2% 0.97× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.1% 72.3% 70.0% 1.03× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.4% 68.8% 64.4% 1.07× 1.45
1-3 goals 62.9% 63.3% 66.3% 0.95× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.8% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
3-6 goals 53.0% 53.2% 50.7% 1.05× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.4% 48.4% 45.1% 1.07× 2.06
2-3 goals 43.5% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
1-2 goals 40.5% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
3-4 goals 38.8% 39.2% 39.0% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.6% 35.2% 26.8% 1.31× 2.84
4-5 goals 26.0% 30.2% 21.2% 1.42× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.3% 14.8% 12.0% 1.24× 6.75
7+ goals 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 1.05× 39.14
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo never behind 50.2% 62.2% — — 1.61
Ñublense never behind 30.5% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.4% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.6% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.8% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.2% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.5% 95.4% 95.1% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 92.3% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.7% 82.3% 85.9% 0.96× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.1% 77.3% 72.2% 1.07× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.4% 66.3% 71.0% 0.93× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 56.0% 58.6% 52.9% 1.11× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 44.0% 41.4% 47.1% 0.88× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 33.6% 33.7% 29.0% 1.16× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.9% 22.7% 27.8% 0.82× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 17.3% 17.7% 14.1% 1.25× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 7.7% 7.7% 8.0% 0.96× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 3.5% 4.6% 4.9% 0.94× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.9% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.5% 92.4% 91.4% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.4% 75.9% 83.4% 0.91× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 71.0% 72.3% 65.6% 1.10× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.7% 55.8% 61.9% 0.90× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.3% 44.2% 38.1% 1.16× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.0% 27.7% 34.4% 0.80× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.6% 24.1% 16.6% 1.45× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.5% 7.6% 8.6% 0.89× 13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.60
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.8% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.4% 71.3% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.3% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.7% 31.4% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.6% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.2% 10.9% — — 9.14
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.7% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.3% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense not to score in both halves 80.0% 78.5% — — 1.27
Colo Colo not to score in both halves 67.9% 70.1% — — 1.43
Colo Colo to score in both halves 32.1% 29.9% — — 3.34
Ñublense to score in both halves 20.0% 21.5% — — 4.66
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.6% 58.5% 52.0% 1.13× 1.71
Only Colo Colo scores 26.5% 26.1% 16.8% 1.55× 3.84
Only Ñublense scores 14.4% 11.0% 26.8% 0.41× 9.06
Neither team scores 3.5% 4.6% 4.9% 0.95× 21.58
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.1% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 19.4% 17.5% 23.2% 0.75× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 16.4% 17.5% 15.1% 1.15× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.6% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.7% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 3.5% 4.5% 4.9% 0.92× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 29.6% 28.7% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 21.5% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.2% 10.8% — — 9.22
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.7% 51.0% — — 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 32.1% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 17.3% 16.8% — — 5.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense not to win both halves 94.3% 94.2% — — 1.06
Colo Colo not to win both halves 85.1% 87.9% — — 1.14
Colo Colo to win both halves 14.9% 12.1% — — 8.24
Ñublense to win both halves 5.7% 5.8% — — 17.25
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to win either half 63.8% 65.0% — — 1.54
Ñublense to win neither half 57.1% 59.0% — — 1.69
Ñublense to win either half 42.9% 41.0% — — 2.44
Colo Colo to win neither half 36.2% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense not to win to nil 85.7% 88.1% 73.2% 1.20× 1.14
Colo Colo not to win to nil 73.5% 75.3% 83.2% 0.91× 1.33
Colo Colo to win to nil 26.5% 24.7% 16.8% 1.47× 4.05
Ñublense to win to nil 14.4% 11.9% 26.8% 0.44× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo by 1 24.6% 24.1% 20.0% 1.21× 4.15
Draw 20.0% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Ñublense by 1 17.7% 17.1% 26.1% 0.65× 5.87
Colo Colo by 2 15.1% 17.0% 6.3% 2.69× 5.87
Colo Colo by 3+ 11.7% 11.8% 4.1% 2.84× 8.51
Ñublense by 2 7.4% 7.2% 12.9% 0.56× 13.91
Ñublense by 3+ 3.4% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 36.86
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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