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O'Higgins v Ñublense — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
O'Higgins win
48.2%
model 46.7%
Draw
22.6%
model 22.1%
Ñublense win
29.2%
model 31.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 13.3%
  2. 0-1 10.8%
  3. 1-1 10.4%
  4. 2-1 9.0%
  5. 2-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.546.9% Under 2.553.1%
BTTS yes49.1% BTTS no50.9%
O'Higgins 1+76.3% O'Higgins 2+42.2%
Ñublense 1+67.1% Ñublense 2+30.5%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under · usually 47%
52.9% fair odds 1.89
moderate signal · 1367 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Ñublense not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 83%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out O'Higgins.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

O'Higgins have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.2% for Ñublense and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.44 for O'Higgins and 1.11 for Ñublense.

Why O'Higgins

Nothing in the data singles out O'Higgins.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Ñublense can win

Ñublense carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1473.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for O'Higgins, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Ñublense, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

O'Higgins: 52% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ñublense: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

O'Higgins are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.3%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.44–1.11 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.41–1.07 1-0 14% 45% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win 46.8% 47.4% 49.0% 0.97× 2.11
Ñublense to win 30.8% 30.4% 30.0% 1.01× 3.29
Draw 22.4% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins & not both score 28.0% 25.2% 26.8% 0.94× 3.97
O'Higgins & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 22.4% 0.80× 5.56
Ñublense & not both score 18.2% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 16.2% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Ñublense & both teams score 12.6% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.2% 8.3% 4.9% 1.71× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins & under 3.5 35.0% 34.9% 34.1% 1.02× 2.87
O'Higgins & over 1.5 32.9% 30.8% 36.1% 0.85× 3.25
O'Higgins & over 2.5 24.6% 21.6% 29.3% 0.74× 4.63
Ñublense & under 3.5 24.4% 21.6% 23.4% 0.92× 4.63
O'Higgins & under 2.5 22.2% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.63
Ñublense & over 1.5 19.7% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 16.7% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.7% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.2% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Ñublense & under 2.5 15.9% 18.0% 13.7% 1.32× 5.56
Ñublense & over 2.5 14.9% 12.8% 16.6% 0.77× 7.79
O'Higgins & under 1.5 13.9% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
O'Higgins & over 3.5 11.8% 12.8% 15.1% 0.85× 7.79
Ñublense & under 1.5 11.1% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 6.2% 7.9% 4.9% 1.62× 12.63
Ñublense & over 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.7% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.7% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (1UP) 60.2% 62.7% — — 1.59
Ñublense (1UP) 46.1% 43.7% — — 2.29
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2UP) 46.8% 50.0% — — 2.00
Ñublense (2UP) 30.8% 30.2% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win 2nd half 36.8% 36.4% — — 2.75
2nd half drawn 35.9% 36.4% — — 2.75
Ñublense to win 2nd half 27.3% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.3% 87.1% — — 1.15
Ñublense under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Ñublense over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 47.6% — — 2.10
Ñublense over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.7% 12.9% — — 7.73
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 82.3% — — 1.22
O'Higgins over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
O'Higgins under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
O'Higgins over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 17.7% — — 5.65
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (+2.5) 91.9% 92.1% 89.5% 1.03× 1.09
Ñublense (+1.5) 78.5% 78.5% 76.8% 1.02× 1.27
O'Higgins (+0.5) 69.2% 68.7% 70.0% 0.98× 1.46
Ñublense (+0.5) 53.2% 52.4% 51.0% 1.03× 1.91
O'Higgins (-0.5) 46.8% 47.6% 49.0% 0.97× 2.10
Ñublense (-0.5) 30.8% 31.3% 30.0% 1.04× 3.19
O'Higgins (-1.5) 21.5% 21.5% 23.2% 0.93× 4.65
O'Higgins (-2.5) 8.1% 7.9% 10.5% 0.75× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to concede 75.6% 78.7% 78.5% 1.00× 1.27
Ñublense clean sheet 24.4% 21.3% 21.5% 0.99× 4.70
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense clean sheet in 1st half 54.5% 50.9% — — 1.96
Ñublense to concede in 1st half 45.5% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to concede in 2nd half 55.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Ñublense clean sheet in 2nd half 44.8% 42.8% — — 2.33
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 6.5 corners 85.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Ñublense under 5.5 corners 76.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Ñublense over 2.5 corners 71.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Ñublense under 4.5 corners 63.0% 61.7% — — 1.62
Ñublense over 3.5 corners 53.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
Ñublense under 3.5 corners 46.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
Ñublense over 4.5 corners 37.0% 38.3% — — 2.61
Ñublense under 2.5 corners 29.0% 28.4% — — 3.52
Ñublense over 5.5 corners 23.9% 24.0% — — 4.17
Ñublense over 6.5 corners 14.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Ñublense under 2.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 88.3% 1.05× 1.08
Ñublense under 1.5 goals 70.9% 71.8% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
Ñublense over 0.5 goals 65.8% 68.0% 68.5% 0.99× 1.47
Ñublense under 0.5 goals 34.2% 32.0% 31.5% 1.02× 3.13
Ñublense over 1.5 goals 29.1% 28.2% 31.5% 0.90× 3.55
Ñublense over 2.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 11.7% 0.65× 13.05
Ñublense over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.85
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 94.0% — — 1.06
Ñublense under 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 70.1% — — 1.43
Ñublense over 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 29.9% — — 3.34
Ñublense over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 6.0% — — 16.53
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense scores equally in both 44.3% 43.7% — — 2.29
Ñublense scores more in 2nd half 34.9% 33.4% — — 3.00
Ñublense scores more in 1st half 20.8% 21.7% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (away no bet) 67.6% 66.4% 69.8% 0.95× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 32.4% 33.6% 30.2% 1.11× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense even goals 55.8% 56.9% 53.7% 1.06× 1.76
Ñublense odd goals 44.2% 43.1% 46.3% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.2% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.8% 12.1% — — 8.29
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 57.3% 60.3% — — 1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals 42.7% 39.7% — — 2.52
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 51.0% 50.8% — — 1.97
O'Higgins to score 2+ in a row 33.9% 28.9% — — 3.46
Ñublense to score 2+ in a row 21.9% 19.5% — — 5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 16.8% 16.1% — — 6.20
O'Higgins to score 3+ in a row 11.4% 12.1% — — 8.25
Ñublense to score 3+ in a row 5.5% 5.5% — — 18.34
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins corners (+3.5) 90.7% 89.6% — — 1.12
O'Higgins corners (+2.5) 85.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
O'Higgins corners (+1.5) 77.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Ñublense corners (+3.5) 74.3% 70.8% — — 1.41
Ñublense corners (+2.5) 64.8% 61.9% — — 1.62
Ñublense corners (+1.5) 54.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
O'Higgins corners (-1.5) 46.0% 47.6% — — 2.10
O'Higgins corners (-2.5) 35.2% 38.1% — — 2.62
O'Higgins corners (-3.5) 25.7% 29.2% — — 3.42
Ñublense corners (-1.5) 22.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Ñublense corners (-2.5) 14.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Ñublense corners (-3.5) 9.3% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 45.6% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 25.2% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.8% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 74.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 66.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 65.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 56.4% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 54.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 45.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 43.6% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 34.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 33.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 25.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 18.2% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 13.9% 11.5% 13.2% 0.87× 8.71
0-1 11.1% 11.5% 10.2% 1.12× 8.72
1-1 10.5% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-2 6.8% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-0 8.3% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
0-0 6.2% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.51
0-2 4.8% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.29
2-2 4.8% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.29
0-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-3 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
2-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-0 3.9% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
3-1 4.2% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.30
3-2 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
4-1 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2nd half DNB) 57.4% 59.5% — — 1.68
Ñublense (2nd half DNB) 42.6% 40.5% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins leading at HT (DNB) 60.6% 66.2% — — 1.51
Ñublense leading at HT (DNB) 39.4% 33.8% — — 2.96
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or Ñublense (12) 77.6% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
O'Higgins or draw (1X) 69.2% 69.6% 70.0% 0.99× 1.44
Ñublense or draw (X2) 53.2% 52.6% 51.0% 1.03× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw at HT 78.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Ñublense or draw at HT 66.4% 67.2% — — 1.49
O'Higgins or Ñublense at HT 55.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw (1UP) 69.2% 76.5% — — 1.31
Ñublense or draw (1UP) 53.2% 58.7% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw in 2nd half 72.7% 73.9% — — 1.35
O'Higgins or Ñublense in 2nd half 64.1% 63.6% — — 1.57
Ñublense or draw in 2nd half 63.2% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.8% 68.2% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 33.2% 31.8% — — 3.14
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (DNB) 60.3% 62.6% 62.0% 1.01× 1.60
Ñublense (DNB) 39.7% 37.4% 38.0% 0.98× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score first 53.3% 53.4% — — 1.87
Ñublense to score first 40.5% 41.6% — — 2.41
No goal scored 6.2% 7.5% — — 13.28
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.4% 51.3% 48.0% 1.07× 1.95
Both teams to score 47.6% 48.7% 52.0% 0.94× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 44.3% 41.6% 38.0% 1.09× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 37.1% 38.4% 42.9% 0.90× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 10.5% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.1% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.0% 85.6% 84.6% 1.01× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.0% 14.4% 15.4% 0.94× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.5% 73.8% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 63.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 21.3% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 11.3% 10.7% — — 9.33
Both score in both halves 4.2% 4.9% — — 20.31
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.5% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 15.5% 16.5% — — 6.07
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 51.7% 52.5% — — 1.90
A goal in each half 48.3% 47.5% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.9% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
0-1 goals 31.2% 30.7% 27.8% 1.10× 3.26
4-6 goals 22.5% 22.9% 26.8% 0.85× 4.36
7+ goals 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.43
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.78
Ñublense to score exactly 0 34.2% 33.8% 31.5% 1.08× 2.96
Ñublense to score exactly 2 19.7% 19.5% 20.0% 0.98× 5.12
Ñublense to score 3+ 9.4% 8.6% 11.7% 0.73× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score exactly 1 34.4% 32.6% 31.7% 1.03× 3.07
O'Higgins to score exactly 0 24.4% 23.3% 21.5% 1.09× 4.29
O'Higgins to score exactly 2 24.3% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
O'Higgins to score 3+ 16.9% 18.8% 21.0% 0.90× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
O'Higgins leading at HT 33.6% 32.8% — — 3.05
Ñublense leading at HT 21.8% 20.4% — — 4.91
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins -1: 2 53.2% 52.2% — — 1.92
O'Higgins -1: X 25.4% 26.5% — — 3.77
O'Higgins -1: 1 21.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (0:1) 53.2% 51.3% 51.0% 1.01× 1.95
Draw (0:1) 25.4% 27.0% 26.1% 1.03× 3.70
O'Higgins (0:1) 21.5% 24.2% 23.2% 1.05× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (0:2) 78.5% 79.4% 76.8% 1.03× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.4% 11.0% 12.9% 0.85× 9.10
O'Higgins (0:2) 8.1% 7.7% 10.5% 0.73× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (0:3) 91.9% 92.7% 89.5% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.27
O'Higgins (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (0:4) 97.5% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 4.1% 0.30× 81.76
O'Higgins (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (1:0) 69.2% 70.2% 70.0% 1.00× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 19.8% 17.1% 20.0% 0.86× 5.84
Ñublense (1:0) 11.0% 12.7% 10.2% 1.24× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2:0) 89.0% 88.5% 89.8% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.7% 6.4% 6.3% 1.01× 15.65
Ñublense (2:0) 3.2% 2.3% 4.1% 0.55× 43.72
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.3% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 28.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.3% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to concede 65.8% 66.7% 68.5% 0.97× 1.50
O'Higgins clean sheet 34.2% 33.3% 31.5% 1.06× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins clean sheet in 1st half 65.1% 70.4% — — 1.42
O'Higgins to concede in 1st half 34.9% 29.6% — — 3.38
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins clean sheet in 2nd half 52.5% 52.5% — — 1.91
O'Higgins to concede in 2nd half 47.5% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins over 2.5 corners 83.5% 81.0% — — 1.24
O'Higgins under 6.5 corners 70.7% 71.9% — — 1.39
O'Higgins over 3.5 corners 70.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
O'Higgins under 5.5 corners 58.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
O'Higgins over 4.5 corners 55.6% 57.5% — — 1.74
O'Higgins under 4.5 corners 44.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
O'Higgins over 5.5 corners 41.4% 42.5% — — 2.35
O'Higgins under 3.5 corners 29.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
O'Higgins over 6.5 corners 29.3% 28.1% — — 3.56
O'Higgins under 2.5 corners 16.5% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 3.5 goals 94.5% 92.2% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
O'Higgins under 2.5 goals 83.1% 82.2% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
O'Higgins over 0.5 goals 75.6% 77.7% 78.5% 0.99× 1.29
O'Higgins under 1.5 goals 58.8% 58.7% 52.9% 1.11× 1.71
O'Higgins over 1.5 goals 41.2% 41.3% 47.1% 0.88× 2.42
O'Higgins under 0.5 goals 24.4% 22.3% 21.5% 1.04× 4.49
O'Higgins over 2.5 goals 16.9% 17.8% 21.0% 0.85× 5.62
O'Higgins over 3.5 goals 5.5% 7.8% 9.0% 0.86× 12.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 1.5 in 1st half 87.6% 90.1% — — 1.11
O'Higgins under 0.5 in 1st half 54.5% 50.7% — — 1.97
O'Higgins over 0.5 in 1st half 45.5% 49.3% — — 2.03
O'Higgins over 1.5 in 1st half 12.4% 9.9% — — 10.09
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins scores equally in both 37.8% 38.1% — — 2.62
O'Higgins scores more in 2nd half 37.0% 38.1% — — 2.63
O'Higgins scores more in 1st half 25.2% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense (home no bet) 57.9% 56.4% 58.6% 0.96× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 42.1% 43.6% 41.4% 1.05× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins even goals 53.0% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
O'Higgins odd goals 47.0% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.1% 38.4% — — 2.61
HT 1-0 21.9% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-1 15.6% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 8.9% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 2-0 6.5% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 3.3% 2.4% — — 42.21
Any other HT score 3.3% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.29
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins at HT / O'Higgins at FT 27.1% 27.3% — — 3.66
Draw at HT / O'Higgins at FT 17.6% 16.8% — — 5.96
Ñublense at HT / Ñublense at FT 15.6% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Ñublense at FT 13.3% 12.7% — — 7.89
O'Higgins at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.87
Ñublense at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.89
Ñublense at HT / O'Higgins at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.96
O'Higgins at HT / Ñublense at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score last 53.1% 52.2% — — 1.92
Ñublense to score last 40.7% 39.9% — — 2.50
No goal scored 6.2% 7.5% — — 13.28
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.8% 92.6% — — 1.08
O'Higgins to lead by 1 at any time 60.2% 61.1% — — 1.64
Ñublense to lead by 1 at any time 46.1% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 42.6% 39.2% — — 2.55
O'Higgins to lead by 2 at any time 27.1% 25.3% — — 3.96
Ñublense to lead by 2 at any time 15.7% 14.8% — — 6.76
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.2% 10.6% — — 9.40
O'Higgins to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 6.7% — — 14.93
Ñublense to lead by 3 at any time 4.3% 1.6% — — 61.09
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins most corners 57.4% 55.6% — — 1.80
Ñublense most corners 31.8% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.7% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 83.1% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.9% 68.8% 66.3% 1.04× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.4% 68.8% 70.0% 0.98× 1.45
2-5 goals 64.7% 63.3% 64.4% 0.98× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.1% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
1-2 goals 48.6% 48.4% 42.4% 1.14× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.9% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
3-6 goals 43.8% 43.6% 50.7% 0.86× 2.29
3-5 goals 41.1% 43.6% 45.1% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 34.5% 35.2% 39.0% 0.90× 2.84
4-6 goals 22.5% 24.4% 26.8% 0.91× 4.09
4-5 goals 19.8% 18.8% 21.2% 0.89× 5.31
5-6 goals 9.3% 8.9% 12.0% 0.74× 11.25
7+ goals 1.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.05× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins never behind 47.7% 56.8% — — 1.76
Ñublense never behind 33.6% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.1% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.9% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.6% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.4% 42.3% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.9% 95.4% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 93.8% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.3% 87.6% 85.9% 1.02× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 76.1% 77.3% 71.0% 1.09× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 68.8% 66.3% 72.2% 0.92× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 54.8% 52.5% 47.1% 1.12× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 45.2% 47.5% 52.9% 0.90× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 31.2% 33.7% 27.8% 1.21× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 23.9% 22.7% 29.0% 0.78× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 10.7% 12.4% 14.1% 0.88× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 6.2% 7.7% 4.9% 1.58× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.1% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.6% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.6% 97.2% 91.4% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 87.7% 86.7% 83.4% 1.04× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 69.7% 67.5% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.1% 55.8% 65.6% 0.85× 1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.9% 44.2% 34.4% 1.28× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 30.3% 32.5% 38.1% 0.85× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 12.3% 13.3% 16.6% 0.80× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.4% 2.8% 8.6% 0.33× 35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.4% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.65
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.3% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.6% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 64.9% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.1% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.4% 28.7% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.7% 7.3% — — 13.74
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.2% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.3% 55.3% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.7% 44.7% — — 2.24
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.8% 20.4% — — 4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.8% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense not to score in both halves 83.4% 84.3% — — 1.19
O'Higgins not to score in both halves 74.9% 74.0% — — 1.35
O'Higgins to score in both halves 25.1% 26.0% — — 3.84
Ñublense to score in both halves 16.6% 15.7% — — 6.39
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.6% 50.7% 52.0% 0.98× 1.97
Only O'Higgins scores 28.0% 26.1% 26.8% 0.97× 3.83
Only Ñublense scores 18.2% 16.0% 16.8% 0.95× 6.23
Neither team scores 6.2% 7.1% 4.9% 1.46× 14.01
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 25.0% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 23.6% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 21.3% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 13.2% 12.1% 15.1% 0.80× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 6.6% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.2% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.1% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 37.5% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 35.1% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 18.7% 15.7% — — 6.37
3+ goals in 1st half 8.7% 7.3% — — 13.74
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 41.7% 44.6% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 35.5% 39.6% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 22.8% 22.9% — — 4.37
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense not to win both halves 94.3% 94.2% — — 1.06
O'Higgins not to win both halves 88.0% 88.0% — — 1.14
O'Higgins to win both halves 12.0% 12.0% — — 8.31
Ñublense to win both halves 5.7% 5.8% — — 17.25
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win either half 58.4% 59.1% — — 1.69
Ñublense to win neither half 56.6% 59.0% — — 1.70
Ñublense to win either half 43.4% 41.0% — — 2.44
O'Higgins to win neither half 41.6% 40.9% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ñublense not to win to nil 81.8% 83.1% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
O'Higgins not to win to nil 72.0% 75.3% 73.2% 1.03× 1.33
O'Higgins to win to nil 28.0% 24.7% 26.8% 0.92× 4.05
Ñublense to win to nil 18.2% 16.9% 16.8% 1.01× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins by 1 25.4% 27.9% 26.1% 1.07× 3.59
Draw 22.4% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Ñublense by 1 19.8% 17.1% 20.0% 0.85× 5.86
O'Higgins by 2 13.4% 11.8% 12.9% 0.91× 8.50
O'Higgins by 3+ 8.1% 7.2% 10.5% 0.69× 13.91
Ñublense by 2 7.7% 7.2% 6.3% 1.13× 13.91
Ñublense by 3+ 3.2% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 36.87
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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