Oldham Athletic v Salford City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 September 2026 · ENG-League Two · 2627
ENG-League Two results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.9%
- 1-0 12.0%
- 0-1 10.8%
- 0-0 9.4%
- 2-1 8.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 41.7% | Under 2.5 | 58.3% |
| BTTS yes | 47.4% | BTTS no | 52.6% |
| Oldham Athletic 1+ | 71.1% | Oldham Athletic 2+ | 35.2% |
| Salford City 1+ | 67.0% | Salford City 2+ | 30.4% |
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- At home Oldham Athletic average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Oldham Athletic have only 1 matches on record.
- Salford City have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Oldham Athletic have an estimated 39.5% win probability, against 33.0% for Salford City and 27.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.24 for Oldham Athletic and 1.11 for Salford City.
Why Oldham Athletic
At home Oldham Athletic average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.6%. A combined 2.35 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.24 to 1.11.
Why Salford City can win
Salford City carry the stronger rating, 1514 Elo against 1483. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Salford City average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Oldham Athletic, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Salford City, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Oldham Athletic: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Salford City: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Oldham Athletic are the model's most likely outcome at 39.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.24–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.22–0.95 | 1-0 14% | 37% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.