Olympiacos v Kalamata — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627
GRE-Super League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 15.7%
- 3-0 13.9%
- 1-0 10.9%
- 4-0 9.2%
- 2-1 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 60.0% | Under 2.5 | 40.0% |
| BTTS yes | 35.0% | BTTS no | 65.0% |
| Olympiacos 1+ | 92.9% | Olympiacos 2+ | 74.2% |
| Kalamata 1+ | 36.6% | Kalamata 2+ | 7.7% |
Expected goals 2.65 – 0.46. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Olympiacos carry the stronger rating, 1736 Elo against 1463.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Kalamata have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Olympiacos have an estimated 82.9% win probability, against 13.7% for the draw and 3.4% for Kalamata. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.65 for Olympiacos and 0.46 for Kalamata.
Why Olympiacos
Olympiacos carry the stronger rating, 1736 Elo against 1463. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 13.7%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Kalamata can win
Nothing in the data singles out Kalamata.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Olympiacos, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kalamata, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Olympiacos: 55% possession, 18.8 shots a match, 8.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kalamata: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 19.5 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Olympiacos's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Olympiacos are the model's most likely outcome at 82.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 15.7%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 3.19–0.43 | 3-0 14% | 70% | 34% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.