Orense SC v Guayaquil City FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Orense SC

4–3

00:00 UTC

Guayaquil City FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 16h before kick-off

Orense SC win

40.6%

model 39.5%

Draw

29.2%

model 26.7%

Guayaquil City FC win

30.2%

model 33.8%

412930

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.6%
1-0 11.8%
0-1 10.8%
0-0 8.6%
2-1 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.2%	Under 2.5	56.8%
BTTS yes	48.4%	BTTS no	51.6%
Orense SC 1+	71.7%	Orense SC 2+	36.0%
Guayaquil City FC 1+	68.1%	Guayaquil City FC 2+	31.7%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.14. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Even number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 49%

50.3% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2377 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Orense SC.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Orense SC have an estimated 40.6% win probability, against 30.2% for Guayaquil City FC and 29.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Orense SC and 1.14 for Guayaquil City FC.

Why Orense SC

Nothing in the data singles out Orense SC.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.26 to 1.14. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Guayaquil City FC can win

Guayaquil City FC carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1467.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Orense SC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Guayaquil City FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Orense SC: 44% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Guayaquil City FC: 61% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Orense SC are the model's most likely outcome at 40.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	402734	1.26–1.14	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	392734	1.23–1.14	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	382834	1.18–1.09	1-1 13%	39%	45%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	392833	1.22–1.10	1-1 13%	41%	47%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC to win	38.4%	36.4%	44.2%	0.82×	2.75
Guayaquil City FC to win	34.0%	30.4%	29.6%	1.03×	3.29
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC & not both score	23.7%	21.9%	25.5%	0.86×	4.57
Guayaquil City FC & not both score	20.9%	21.9%	18.0%	1.21×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	17.9%	18.6%	0.96×	5.58
Orense SC & both teams score	14.6%	13.3%	19.0%	0.70×	7.54
Guayaquil City FC & both teams score	13.1%	13.3%	11.7%	1.13×	7.54
Draw & not both score	9.9%	8.4%	8.0%	1.05×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC & under 3.5	30.5%	30.9%	33.3%	0.93×	3.24
Guayaquil City FC & under 3.5	27.4%	26.0%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Orense SC & over 1.5	25.7%	26.0%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	22.7%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	22.7%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
Guayaquil City FC & over 1.5	22.2%	21.7%	19.1%	1.13×	4.62
Orense SC & under 2.5	19.9%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Orense SC & over 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Guayaquil City FC & under 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Guayaquil City FC & over 2.5	16.1%	18.0%	14.7%	1.22×	5.56
Orense SC & under 1.5	12.7%	12.9%	12.3%	1.05×	7.77
Guayaquil City FC & under 1.5	11.8%	12.9%	10.6%	1.21×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.69
Orense SC & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	11.2%	0.71×	12.70
Guayaquil City FC & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	7.4%	1.06×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.9%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.9%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC (1UP)	52.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Guayaquil City FC (1UP)	48.6%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC (2UP)	38.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Guayaquil City FC (2UP)	34.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.3%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Orense SC to win 2nd half	30.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Guayaquil City FC to win 2nd half	29.8%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC (+2.5)	94.8%	92.1%	92.2%	1.00×	1.09
Guayaquil City FC (+1.5)	84.0%	82.4%	80.5%	1.02×	1.21
Orense SC (+0.5)	66.0%	68.7%	70.4%	0.98×	1.46
Guayaquil City FC (+0.5)	61.6%	62.9%	55.8%	1.13×	1.59
Orense SC (-0.5)	38.4%	37.1%	44.2%	0.84×	2.70
Guayaquil City FC (-0.5)	34.0%	31.3%	29.6%	1.06×	3.20
Orense SC (-1.5)	16.0%	17.6%	19.5%	0.90×	5.69
Orense SC (-2.5)	5.2%	7.9%	7.8%	1.01×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC to concede	69.2%	72.5%	74.2%	0.98×	1.38
Guayaquil City FC clean sheet	30.8%	27.5%	25.8%	1.06×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC clean sheet in 1st half	60.3%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Guayaquil City FC to concede in 1st half	39.7%	35.3%	—	—	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC under 6.5 corners	97.6%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Guayaquil City FC under 5.5 corners	94.2%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Guayaquil City FC under 4.5 corners	87.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Guayaquil City FC under 3.5 corners	75.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Guayaquil City FC under 2.5 corners	55.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Guayaquil City FC over 2.5 corners	44.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Guayaquil City FC over 3.5 corners	25.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Guayaquil City FC over 4.5 corners	12.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Guayaquil City FC over 5.5 corners	5.8%	9.9%	—	—	10.07
Guayaquil City FC over 6.5 corners	2.4%	4.4%	—	—	22.86

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC under 3.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	96.8%	1.01×	1.03
Guayaquil City FC under 2.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Guayaquil City FC under 1.5 goals	70.3%	71.9%	73.8%	0.97×	1.39
Guayaquil City FC over 0.5 goals	66.3%	67.9%	66.7%	1.02×	1.47
Guayaquil City FC under 0.5 goals	33.7%	32.1%	33.3%	0.96×	3.12
Guayaquil City FC over 1.5 goals	29.7%	28.1%	26.2%	1.07×	3.56
Guayaquil City FC over 2.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.01
Guayaquil City FC over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	3.2%	0.78×	40.75

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC under 1.5 in 1st half	92.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Guayaquil City FC under 0.5 in 1st half	64.7%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Guayaquil City FC over 0.5 in 1st half	35.3%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Guayaquil City FC over 1.5 in 1st half	7.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.22

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC (away no bet)	58.1%	57.5%	62.6%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.9%	42.5%	37.4%	1.14×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC even goals	55.7%	56.9%	51.7%	1.10×	1.76
Guayaquil City FC odd goals	44.3%	43.1%	48.3%	0.89×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.7%	92.2%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.3%	7.8%	—	—	12.84

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	53.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Both halves under 1.5 goals	47.1%	49.9%	—	—	2.00

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	46.0%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Orense SC to score 2+ in a row	26.5%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Guayaquil City FC to score 2+ in a row	23.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Orense SC to score 3+ in a row	7.6%	5.7%	—	—	17.67
Guayaquil City FC to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.6%	—	—	17.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC corners (+3.5)	98.0%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Orense SC corners (+2.5)	95.7%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Orense SC corners (+1.5)	91.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Orense SC corners (-1.5)	63.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Guayaquil City FC corners (+3.5)	61.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Orense SC corners (-2.5)	50.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Guayaquil City FC corners (+2.5)	49.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Orense SC corners (-3.5)	38.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Guayaquil City FC corners (+1.5)	36.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Guayaquil City FC corners (-1.5)	8.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Guayaquil City FC corners (-2.5)	4.3%	4.2%	—	—	23.53
Guayaquil City FC corners (-3.5)	2.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	62.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.09
9-11 corners	24.8%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	12.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	92.0%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	87.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 10.5 corners	81.2%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 9.5 corners	73.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	62.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 7.5 corners	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 7.5 corners	49.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	37.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 9.5 corners	27.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 10.5 corners	18.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 11.5 corners	12.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.88
Over 12.5 corners	8.0%	16.7%	—	—	6.00

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.7%	11.5%	12.3%	0.93×	8.73
1-1	12.8%	11.5%	14.3%	0.80×	8.73
0-1	11.8%	11.5%	10.6%	1.08×	8.73
0-0	9.9%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.48
2-0	7.2%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.48
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
0-2	6.2%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.48
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.48
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.47
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-0	2.8%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.47
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.47
3-2	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.49
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.48
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.60×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
Any other score	1.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC leading at HT (DNB)	54.6%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Guayaquil City FC leading at HT (DNB)	45.4%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC or Guayaquil City FC (12)	72.3%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Orense SC or draw (1X)	66.0%	69.6%	70.4%	0.99×	1.44
Guayaquil City FC or draw (X2)	61.6%	63.6%	55.8%	1.14×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC or draw at HT	76.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Guayaquil City FC or draw at HT	71.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Orense SC or Guayaquil City FC at HT	52.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC or draw (1UP)	66.0%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Guayaquil City FC or draw (1UP)	61.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC or draw in 2nd half	70.2%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Guayaquil City FC or draw in 2nd half	69.1%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Orense SC or Guayaquil City FC in 2nd half	60.7%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	68.9%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	31.1%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC (DNB)	53.0%	50.9%	60.0%	0.85×	1.96
Guayaquil City FC (DNB)	47.0%	49.1%	40.1%	1.22×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC to score first	46.8%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Guayaquil City FC to score first	43.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	9.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.15

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.6%	51.4%	51.1%	1.01×	1.94
Both teams to score	45.4%	48.6%	48.9%	0.99×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	47.7%	44.3%	42.6%	1.04×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	32.6%	34.3%	34.8%	0.99×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.3%	14.3%	0.86×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	6.9%	8.4%	8.7%	0.96×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.2%	89.1%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.8%	10.9%	10.0%	1.09×	9.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.7%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.3%	24.8%	—	—	4.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	66.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.61
Both score 2nd half only	20.0%	20.7%	—	—	4.83
Both score 1st half only	10.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.3%	5.0%	—	—	20.04

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.1%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.9%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	55.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	44.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	47.4%	47.0%	1.01×	2.11
0-1 goals	34.3%	30.8%	30.5%	1.01×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.5%	20.2%	21.4%	0.94×	4.95
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	1.5%	1.23×	54.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	40.7%	0.88×	2.78
Guayaquil City FC to score exactly 0	33.7%	33.8%	33.3%	1.02×	2.96
Guayaquil City FC to score exactly 2	20.0%	19.6%	16.2%	1.21×	5.11
Guayaquil City FC to score 3+	9.7%	8.5%	10.2%	0.83×	11.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.6%	35.1%	1.01×	2.81
Orense SC to score exactly 0	30.8%	32.6%	25.8%	1.26×	3.06
Orense SC to score exactly 2	21.3%	23.2%	24.5%	0.95×	4.30
Orense SC to score 3+	11.6%	14.3%	14.9%	0.96×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Orense SC leading at HT	28.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Guayaquil City FC leading at HT	23.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC -1: 2	61.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Orense SC -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Orense SC -1: 1	16.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC (0:1)	61.6%	61.4%	55.8%	1.10×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	22.4%	24.3%	24.9%	0.97×	4.12
Orense SC (0:1)	16.0%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC (0:2)	84.0%	82.8%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.8%	11.0%	11.9%	0.92×	9.13
Orense SC (0:2)	5.2%	7.7%	7.8%	0.99×	12.97

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC (0:3)	94.8%	92.6%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.8%	2.4%	4.6%	0.51×	42.09
Orense SC (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	96.7%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.2%	0.54×	83.56
Orense SC (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.92×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC (1:0)	66.0%	69.9%	70.4%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	20.7%	21.8%	18.2%	1.19×	4.60
Guayaquil City FC (1:0)	13.3%	12.8%	11.5%	1.11×	7.80

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC (2:0)	86.7%	88.4%	88.5%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.2%	6.5%	7.4%	0.87×	15.46
Guayaquil City FC (2:0)	4.0%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	44.11

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC to concede	66.3%	66.5%	66.7%	1.00×	1.50
Orense SC clean sheet	33.7%	33.5%	33.3%	1.01×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC clean sheet in 1st half	64.7%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Orense SC to concede in 1st half	35.3%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC over 2.5 corners	84.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Orense SC over 3.5 corners	71.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Orense SC under 6.5 corners	71.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Orense SC under 5.5 corners	58.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Orense SC over 4.5 corners	56.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Orense SC under 4.5 corners	43.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Orense SC over 5.5 corners	41.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Orense SC over 6.5 corners	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Orense SC under 3.5 corners	28.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Orense SC under 2.5 corners	15.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC under 3.5 goals	96.8%	96.4%	94.6%	1.02×	1.04
Orense SC under 2.5 goals	88.4%	87.3%	85.1%	1.03×	1.15
Orense SC over 0.5 goals	69.2%	67.9%	74.2%	0.92×	1.47
Orense SC under 1.5 goals	67.1%	67.9%	60.8%	1.12×	1.47
Orense SC over 1.5 goals	32.9%	32.1%	39.2%	0.82×	3.11
Orense SC under 0.5 goals	30.8%	32.1%	25.8%	1.24×	3.11
Orense SC over 2.5 goals	11.6%	12.7%	14.9%	0.86×	7.85
Orense SC over 3.5 goals	3.2%	3.6%	5.4%	0.68×	27.47

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC under 1.5 in 1st half	90.8%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Orense SC under 0.5 in 1st half	60.3%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Orense SC over 0.5 in 1st half	39.7%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Orense SC over 1.5 in 1st half	9.2%	4.7%	—	—	21.07

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC (home no bet)	55.1%	56.6%	52.8%	1.07×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.9%	43.4%	47.2%	0.92×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC even goals	54.8%	50.6%	54.3%	0.93×	1.97
Orense SC odd goals	45.3%	49.4%	45.7%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.9%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
HT 1-0	19.8%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	17.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	8.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-0	5.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.24
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
Any other HT score	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 2-1	2.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.58

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC at HT / Orense SC at FT	21.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Guayaquil City FC at HT / Guayaquil City FC at FT	17.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Orense SC at FT	15.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Guayaquil City FC at FT	14.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Orense SC at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Guayaquil City FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Orense SC at HT / Guayaquil City FC at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Guayaquil City FC at HT / Orense SC at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC to score last	46.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Guayaquil City FC to score last	43.3%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	9.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.15

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Orense SC to lead by 1 at any time	52.5%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Guayaquil City FC to lead by 1 at any time	48.6%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.3%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Orense SC to lead by 2 at any time	20.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Guayaquil City FC to lead by 2 at any time	17.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.5%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Orense SC to lead by 3 at any time	6.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.11
Guayaquil City FC to lead by 3 at any time	5.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC most corners	75.5%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Guayaquil City FC most corners	15.1%	19.1%	—	—	5.23
Corners level	9.5%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.1%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.7%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	64.8%	63.4%	68.2%	0.93×	1.58
2-5 goals	62.8%	63.4%	66.5%	0.95×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.7%	59.2%	59.3%	1.00×	1.69
1-2 goals	50.6%	53.2%	48.9%	1.09×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.7%	47.0%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.6%	39.2%	42.0%	0.93×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.7%	39.1%	40.3%	0.97×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.5%	35.4%	33.1%	1.07×	2.83
4-6 goals	18.5%	18.6%	21.4%	0.87×	5.37
4-5 goals	16.6%	18.6%	19.7%	0.95×	5.37
5-6 goals	7.1%	8.7%	9.1%	0.96×	11.45
7+ goals	0.9%	2.5%	1.5%	1.71×	39.30

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orense SC never behind	41.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Guayaquil City FC never behind	37.6%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.8%	48.5%	1.05×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.4%	49.2%	51.5%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.8%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.2%	95.5%	96.8%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	89.6%	1.03×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	90.1%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	80.6%	82.4%	77.3%	1.07×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	65.7%	66.2%	69.5%	0.95×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	60.5%	61.7%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	39.5%	38.3%	43.3%	0.88×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	34.3%	33.8%	30.5%	1.11×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	19.4%	17.6%	22.7%	0.78×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	9.9%	7.7%	8.0%	0.97×	12.91
Over 4.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	10.4%	0.74×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	2.8%	4.5%	3.2%	1.42×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	98.5%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.0%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.0%	92.5%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	75.7%	75.9%	71.4%	1.06×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	53.5%	51.8%	58.7%	0.88×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.5%	48.2%	41.3%	1.17×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	24.3%	24.1%	28.6%	0.84×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.0%	7.5%	11.9%	0.64×	13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.0%	2.8%	3.4%	0.81×	36.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	1.5%	1.83×	36.20

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.0%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.8%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.1%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.9%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.0%	7.3%	—	—	13.77

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.6%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.4%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC not to score in both halves	83.1%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Orense SC not to score in both halves	80.6%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Orense SC to score in both halves	19.4%	15.8%	—	—	6.33
Guayaquil City FC to score in both halves	16.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.4%	50.4%	48.9%	1.03×	1.98
Only Orense SC scores	23.7%	22.3%	25.5%	0.88×	4.48
Only Guayaquil City FC scores	20.9%	22.3%	18.0%	1.24×	4.48
Neither team scores	9.9%	7.2%	8.0%	0.90×	13.89

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.2%	25.0%	26.4%	0.95×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	24.4%	22.6%	22.7%	1.00×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	20.1%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	11.4%	12.1%	12.5%	0.97×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	9.9%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	7.4%	1.03×	13.09
6 or more goals	2.8%	4.4%	3.2%	1.40×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.0%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	35.5%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
No goals in 2nd half	26.4%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC not to win both halves	93.0%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Orense SC not to win both halves	91.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Orense SC to win both halves	8.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.43
Guayaquil City FC to win both halves	7.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.56

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC to win neither half	53.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Orense SC to win either half	50.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Orense SC to win neither half	49.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Guayaquil City FC to win either half	46.5%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guayaquil City FC not to win to nil	79.1%	78.1%	82.0%	0.95×	1.28
Orense SC not to win to nil	76.3%	78.0%	74.5%	1.05×	1.28
Orense SC to win to nil	23.7%	22.0%	25.5%	0.86×	4.55
Guayaquil City FC to win to nil	20.9%	21.9%	18.0%	1.22×	4.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.7%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Orense SC by 1	22.4%	24.1%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Guayaquil City FC by 1	20.7%	24.1%	18.2%	1.33×	4.14
Orense SC by 2	10.8%	11.8%	11.9%	0.99×	8.48
Guayaquil City FC by 2	9.2%	7.3%	7.4%	0.98×	13.77
Orense SC by 3+	5.2%	7.3%	7.8%	0.93×	13.79
Guayaquil City FC by 3+	4.0%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	36.95

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.