Osasuna v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 25 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 12
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.29
Goals − xG
-0.18 – -0.05
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
43.0%
Draw
29.8%
Elche win
27.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWWLLLDLW last 10
scored 10
from 13.9 xG
conceded 19
from 15.1 xG
Elche are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLLDLWDDW last 10
scored 14
from 13.2 xG
conceded 17
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–0.88 | 1-0 15% | 34% | 40% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.18 xGElche 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alejandro Catena |
| 13' |
 Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 15' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.58 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 21' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 22' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 37' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leo Petrot |
| 44' |
Osasuna |
Abel Bretones | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iker Benito |
| 48' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 53' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 55' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Osasuna |
Jorge Herrando | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 55' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 64' |
Osasuna |
Moi Gómez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 67' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Victor Chust |
| 72' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 88' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 91' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Torró DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Abel Bretones ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Moi Gómez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.13 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Víctor Muñoz FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Iker Benito MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sheraldo Becker Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Raul García Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| Leo Petrot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Álvaro Núñez DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Hector Fort DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Grady Diangana MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| André Silva FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bambo Diaby DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| David Affengruber Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Rafa Mir Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| German Valera Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |