Osasuna v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 31 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 11
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.99 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.71 – -1.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
49.8%
Draw
27.9%
Getafe win
22.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWWLLLDLW last 10
scored 10
from 13.9 xG
conceded 19
from 15.1 xG
Getafe are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWLDDLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 7.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–0.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–0.83 | 1-0 15% | 37% | 42% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.72 xGGetafe 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Osasuna |
Iñigo Arguibide | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 4' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 7' |
 Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 9' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enes Ünal |
| 20' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrés García |
| 26' |
Getafe |
Andrés García | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Getafe |
Orel Mangala | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Getafe |
Johan Mojica | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 60' |
Osasuna |
Jonathan Dubasin | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iñigo Arguibide |
| 68' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 76' |
Osasuna |
Abel Bretones | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moi Gómez |
| 76' |
Osasuna |
Jonathan Dubasin | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Herrera |
| 77' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 79' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 81' |
Osasuna |
Kike Barja | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 85' |
Osasuna |
Jon Moncayola | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Getafe |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enes Ünal |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Ramón Terrats ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.48 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Enes Ünal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Francho Serrano MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Andrés García MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Alberto Risco Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nemanja Gudelj Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Borja Mayoral Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Iñigo Arguibide DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| Jon Moncayola DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Abel Bretones DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Moi Gómez AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Aimar Oroz AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| Iker Muñoz DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rubén García AMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Enzo Boyomo Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jonathan Dubasin Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Raul García Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Torró Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |