Osasuna v Racing Santander — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 9
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
16 – 1
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
1.09 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.12 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyOsasuna win
49.2%
model 47.8%
Draw
23.0%
model 23.9%
Racing Santander win
27.7%
model 28.3%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.1%
- 2-1 9.4%
- 1-0 8.9%
- 2-0 7.5%
- 1-2 7.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% | Under 2.5 | 43.4% |
| BTTS yes | 58.4% | BTTS no | 41.6% |
| Osasuna 1+ | 81.7% | Osasuna 2+ | 50.6% |
| Racing Santander 1+ | 71.5% | Racing Santander 2+ | 35.7% |
Expected goals 1.70 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
91/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
91%
★ Best pick
Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)
DNB half time · usually 38%
66.7% fair odds 1.50
strong signal · 228 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Racing Santander or draw at HT
Double chance 1HT · usually 65%
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 759 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- At home Osasuna average 1.29 xG a match.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Racing Santander were missing 0.67 expected goal involvements a match against 0.27.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Osasuna have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.7% for Racing Santander and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Osasuna and 1.25 for Racing Santander.
Why Osasuna
At home Osasuna average 1.29 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Racing Santander were missing 0.67 expected goal involvements a match against 0.27.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Racing Santander can win
Racing Santander carry the stronger rating, 1563 Elo against 1441.
Key players
Osasuna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ante Budimir (0.59), Víctor Muñoz (0.27), Raul García (0.22). Racing Santander's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrés Martín (0.33), Yassir Zabiri (0.33), Iñigo Vicente (0.27).
Availability
1 of Racing Santander's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Osasuna: 46% possession, 8.4 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Racing Santander: 50% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Osasuna are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWWLLLDLW last 10
scored 10
from 13.9 xG
conceded 19
from 15.1 xG
Racing Santander are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLWLWLLDLW last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 26
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.70–1.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 2.09–1.23 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 62% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.27–1.13 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% | Home ✓ | |
| deep | 2.09–1.23 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to win | 57.0% | 54.0% | 46.3% | 1.17× | 1.85 |
| Racing Santander to win | 22.1% | 24.4% | 28.4% | 0.86× | 4.09 |
| Draw | 20.9% | 24.4% | 25.4% | 0.96× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna & both teams score | 31.5% | 29.6% | 21.5% | 1.37× | 3.38 |
| Osasuna & not both score | 25.5% | 25.2% | 24.9% | 1.01× | 3.98 |
| Draw & both teams score | 17.3% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.57 |
| Racing Santander & both teams score | 13.3% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 0.94× | 7.53 |
| Racing Santander & not both score | 8.8% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 0.58× | 12.00 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 0.91× | 20.57 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna & over 1.5 | 49.5% | 45.1% | 33.7% | 1.34× | 2.22 |
| Osasuna & over 2.5 | 41.6% | 40.2% | 27.9% | 1.44× | 2.49 |
| Osasuna & under 3.5 | 30.6% | 30.7% | 32.3% | 0.95× | 3.25 |
| Osasuna & over 3.5 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 14.1% | 1.85× | 3.84 |
| Racing Santander & over 1.5 | 17.6% | 18.0% | 21.4% | 0.84× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 17.3% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Osasuna & under 2.5 | 15.4% | 18.0% | 18.5% | 0.97× | 5.56 |
| Racing Santander & over 2.5 | 14.9% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 0.75× | 7.79 |
| Racing Santander & under 3.5 | 14.1% | 12.8% | 21.4% | 0.60× | 7.79 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 12.9% | 12.8% | 20.4% | 0.63× | 7.79 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 12.9% | 12.8% | 20.4% | 0.63× | 7.79 |
| Osasuna & under 1.5 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 0.63× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 1.52× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 1.52× | 12.62 |
| Racing Santander & over 3.5 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.12× | 12.62 |
| Racing Santander & under 2.5 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 0.69× | 12.62 |
| Racing Santander & under 1.5 | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 0.68× | 20.80 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 0.90× | 20.81 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (1UP) | 71.9% | 75.4% | 62.8% | 1.20× | 1.33 |
| Racing Santander (1UP) | 42.5% | 38.6% | 47.1% | 0.82× | 2.59 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (2UP) | 57.0% | 54.9% | 48.0% | 1.14× | 1.82 |
| Racing Santander (2UP) | 22.1% | 23.4% | 30.0% | 0.78× | 4.28 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to win 2nd half | 45.9% | 45.6% | 39.3% | 1.16× | 2.19 |
| 2nd half drawn | 30.4% | 34.3% | 33.2% | 1.03× | 2.92 |
| Racing Santander to win 2nd half | 23.6% | 24.2% | 27.6% | 0.88× | 4.13 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander under 1.5 in 2nd half | 82.4% | 84.2% | 84.2% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| Racing Santander over 0.5 in 2nd half | 53.2% | 52.5% | 52.1% | 1.01× | 1.90 |
| Racing Santander under 0.5 in 2nd half | 46.9% | 47.5% | 47.9% | 0.99× | 2.11 |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 in 2nd half | 17.6% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 1.00× | 6.35 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna over 0.5 in 2nd half | 69.3% | 70.9% | 58.8% | 1.21× | 1.41 |
| Osasuna under 1.5 in 2nd half | 66.9% | 70.8% | 79.8% | 0.89× | 1.41 |
| Osasuna over 1.5 in 2nd half | 33.1% | 29.2% | 20.2% | 1.45× | 3.43 |
| Osasuna under 0.5 in 2nd half | 30.7% | 29.1% | 41.2% | 0.71× | 3.44 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (+2.5) | 82.6% | 82.5% | 89.8% | 0.92× | 1.21 |
| Osasuna (+0.5) | 77.9% | 78.5% | 71.6% | 1.10× | 1.27 |
| Racing Santander (+1.5) | 65.4% | 68.7% | 79.4% | 0.86× | 1.46 |
| Osasuna (-0.5) | 57.0% | 57.0% | 46.3% | 1.23× | 1.75 |
| Racing Santander (+0.5) | 43.0% | 43.0% | 53.7% | 0.80× | 2.33 |
| Osasuna (-1.5) | 34.6% | 31.3% | 20.6% | 1.52× | 3.19 |
| Racing Santander (-0.5) | 22.1% | 21.5% | 28.4% | 0.76× | 4.65 |
| Osasuna (-2.5) | 17.4% | 17.5% | 10.2% | 1.72× | 5.73 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander to concede | 87.6% | 86.3% | 80.4% | 1.07× | 1.16 |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 12.4% | 13.7% | 19.6% | 0.70× | 7.30 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander to concede in 1st half | 59.6% | 56.9% | 47.8% | 1.19× | 1.76 |
| Racing Santander clean sheet in 1st half | 40.4% | 43.1% | 52.2% | 0.82× | 2.32 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander to concede in 2nd half | 69.3% | 66.3% | 58.8% | 1.13× | 1.51 |
| Racing Santander clean sheet in 2nd half | 30.7% | 33.7% | 41.2% | 0.82× | 2.97 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander over 2.5 corners | 78.5% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Racing Santander under 6.5 corners | 78.3% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Racing Santander under 5.5 corners | 67.1% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Racing Santander over 3.5 corners | 63.0% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Racing Santander under 4.5 corners | 53.0% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Racing Santander over 4.5 corners | 47.0% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Racing Santander under 3.5 corners | 37.0% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Racing Santander over 5.5 corners | 32.9% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Racing Santander under 2.5 corners | 21.5% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
| Racing Santander over 6.5 corners | 21.7% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander under 3.5 goals | 96.3% | 97.5% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Racing Santander under 2.5 goals | 87.2% | 87.8% | 89.5% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Racing Santander over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | 71.8% | 69.9% | 1.03× | 1.39 |
| Racing Santander under 1.5 goals | 65.1% | 68.0% | 67.8% | 1.00× | 1.47 |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 32.0% | 32.2% | 1.00× | 3.12 |
| Racing Santander under 0.5 goals | 29.1% | 28.2% | 30.1% | 0.94× | 3.55 |
| Racing Santander over 2.5 goals | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 1.16× | 8.20 |
| Racing Santander over 3.5 goals | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.88× | 39.96 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.7% | 94.0% | 92.9% | 1.01× | 1.06 |
| Racing Santander under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.2% | 63.3% | 63.2% | 1.00× | 1.58 |
| Racing Santander over 0.5 in 1st half | 37.8% | 36.7% | 36.8% | 1.00× | 2.72 |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 0.84× | 16.71 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander scores equally in both | 40.6% | 43.4% | 41.9% | 1.04× | 2.30 |
| Racing Santander scores more in 2nd half | 38.6% | 37.3% | 37.5% | 1.00× | 2.68 |
| Racing Santander scores more in 1st half | 20.8% | 21.9% | 20.8% | 1.05× | 4.57 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (away no bet) | 73.2% | 68.4% | 64.5% | 1.06× | 1.46 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 26.8% | 31.6% | 35.5% | 0.89× | 3.16 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander even goals | 54.2% | 52.6% | 53.5% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Racing Santander odd goals | 45.8% | 47.4% | 46.5% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 76.8% | 81.4% | 86.0% | 0.95× | 1.23 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 18.6% | 14.0% | 1.33× | 5.36 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 74.7% | 67.6% | 62.5% | 1.08× | 1.48 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 32.4% | 37.5% | 0.86× | 3.09 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 67.1% | 62.2% | 52.3% | 1.19× | 1.61 |
| Osasuna to score 2+ in a row | 52.3% | 50.8% | 34.4% | 1.48× | 1.97 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 29.3% | 25.2% | 19.2% | 1.31× | 3.97 |
| Racing Santander to score 2+ in a row | 24.0% | 19.7% | 23.8% | 0.83× | 5.07 |
| Osasuna to score 3+ in a row | 23.8% | 19.7% | 13.2% | 1.50× | 5.07 |
| Racing Santander to score 3+ in a row | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 0.85× | 17.95 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna corners (+3.5) | 86.9% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Osasuna corners (+2.5) | 80.5% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Racing Santander corners (+3.5) | 77.6% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Osasuna corners (+1.5) | 72.2% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Racing Santander corners (+2.5) | 69.0% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Racing Santander corners (+1.5) | 59.0% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Osasuna corners (-1.5) | 41.0% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Osasuna corners (-2.5) | 31.0% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Racing Santander corners (-1.5) | 27.8% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Osasuna corners (-3.5) | 22.4% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
| Racing Santander corners (-2.5) | 19.5% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Racing Santander corners (-3.5) | 13.1% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 38.0% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 32.0% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.0% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 76.0% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72.2% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 68.0% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 62.0% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 58.8% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51.4% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 48.6% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 41.2% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 38.0% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 32.0% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 27.8% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 24.0% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 0.49× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 0.77× | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 0.58× | 13.51 |
| 2-0 | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 1.25× | 13.51 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.09× | 13.51 |
| Any other score | 6.9% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 2.23× | 13.51 |
| 1-2 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 0.91× | 13.51 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.74× | 13.51 |
| 3-0 | 5.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.65× | 13.51 |
| 0-0 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 0.32× | 58.30 |
| 0-1 | 4.5% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 0.24× | 58.29 |
| 0-2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.30 |
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.85× | 58.31 |
| 0-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.07× | 58.32 |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.81× | 58.31 |
| 1-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.63× | 58.32 |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.72× | 58.31 |
| 2-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.90× | 58.31 |
| 3-2 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 58.30 |
| 3-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.61× | 58.31 |
| 3-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.83× | 58.32 |
| 4-0 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.04× | 58.30 |
| 4-1 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.85× | 58.30 |
| 4-2 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.32× | 58.31 |
| 4-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.42× | 58.31 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 14.53× | 58.32 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (2nd half DNB) | 66.0% | 67.3% | 58.7% | 1.15× | 1.49 |
| Racing Santander (2nd half DNB) | 34.0% | 32.7% | 41.3% | 0.79× | 3.05 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna leading at HT (DNB) | 70.5% | 73.5% | 61.7% | 1.19× | 1.36 |
| Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB) | 29.5% | 26.5% | 38.3% | 0.69× | 3.78 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna or Racing Santander (12) | 79.1% | 75.6% | 74.6% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Osasuna or draw (1X) | 77.9% | 75.6% | 71.6% | 1.06× | 1.32 |
| Racing Santander or draw (X2) | 43.0% | 46.0% | 53.7% | 0.86× | 2.17 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna or draw at HT | 81.5% | 84.0% | 78.3% | 1.07× | 1.19 |
| Osasuna or Racing Santander at HT | 62.8% | 61.3% | 56.6% | 1.08× | 1.63 |
| Racing Santander or draw at HT | 55.7% | 57.4% | 65.0% | 0.88× | 1.74 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna or draw (1UP) | 77.9% | 84.1% | 77.9% | 1.08× | 1.19 |
| Racing Santander or draw (1UP) | 43.0% | 52.7% | 60.4% | 0.87× | 1.90 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna or draw in 2nd half | 76.4% | 75.8% | 72.4% | 1.05× | 1.32 |
| Osasuna or Racing Santander in 2nd half | 69.6% | 65.7% | 66.8% | 0.98× | 1.52 |
| Racing Santander or draw in 2nd half | 54.1% | 54.4% | 60.7% | 0.90× | 1.84 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 56.3% | 58.5% | 62.4% | 0.94× | 1.71 |
| Neither half drawn | 43.7% | 41.5% | 37.6% | 1.10× | 2.41 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (DNB) | 72.1% | 71.5% | 62.0% | 1.15× | 1.40 |
| Racing Santander (DNB) | 27.9% | 28.5% | 38.0% | 0.75× | 3.51 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to score first | 60.6% | 64.3% | 55.2% | 1.17× | 1.56 |
| Racing Santander to score first | 35.8% | 32.8% | 39.6% | 0.83× | 3.05 |
| No goal scored | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 0.80× | 23.29 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 56.6% | 55.6% | 1.02× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 37.9% | 43.4% | 44.4% | 0.98× | 2.31 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 52.8% | 47.3% | 40.6% | 1.17× | 2.11 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 26.2% | 33.3% | 35.0% | 0.95× | 3.00 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 11.7% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 1.31× | 8.09 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 9.3% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 0.55× | 12.06 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 78.4% | 79.7% | 85.8% | 0.93× | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 21.6% | 20.3% | 14.2% | 1.43× | 4.92 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 63.1% | 65.6% | 70.9% | 0.93× | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 36.9% | 34.4% | 29.1% | 1.18× | 2.91 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 48.9% | 52.8% | 59.8% | 0.88× | 1.89 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 28.6% | 27.5% | 23.5% | 1.17× | 3.64 |
| Both score 1st half only | 14.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 0.96× | 9.26 |
| Both score in both halves | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 1.20× | 14.60 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 77.5% | 81.1% | 83.2% | 0.97× | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 22.5% | 18.9% | 16.8% | 1.12× | 5.28 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 64.1% | 59.7% | 54.9% | 1.09× | 1.68 |
| A half without a goal | 35.9% | 40.3% | 45.1% | 0.89× | 2.48 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 42.0% | 42.1% | 49.1% | 0.86× | 2.38 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.2% | 35.1% | 23.8% | 1.48× | 2.85 |
| 0-1 goals | 15.6% | 20.2% | 24.9% | 0.81× | 4.94 |
| 7+ goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.05× | 13.18 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander to score exactly 1 | 35.9% | 35.9% | 37.9% | 0.95× | 2.78 |
| Racing Santander to score exactly 0 | 29.1% | 27.4% | 30.1% | 0.91× | 3.65 |
| Racing Santander to score exactly 2 | 22.2% | 22.3% | 21.8% | 1.02× | 4.48 |
| Racing Santander to score 3+ | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 1.22× | 7.76 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to score 3+ | 34.7% | 32.6% | 19.8% | 1.65× | 3.07 |
| Osasuna to score exactly 2 | 27.0% | 26.6% | 22.5% | 1.18× | 3.77 |
| Osasuna to score exactly 1 | 25.9% | 26.6% | 38.3% | 0.69× | 3.77 |
| Osasuna to score exactly 0 | 12.4% | 14.3% | 19.6% | 0.73× | 6.99 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna leading at HT | 44.3% | 42.6% | 35.0% | 1.22× | 2.35 |
| Draw at HT | 37.2% | 38.7% | 43.4% | 0.89× | 2.59 |
| Racing Santander leading at HT | 18.5% | 16.0% | 21.7% | 0.74× | 6.23 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna -1: 2 | 43.0% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.34 |
| Osasuna -1: 1 | 34.6% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Osasuna -1: X | 22.4% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:1) | 43.0% | 42.6% | 53.7% | 0.79× | 2.35 |
| Osasuna (0:1) | 34.6% | 30.1% | 20.6% | 1.46× | 3.32 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.4% | 24.2% | 25.8% | 0.94× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:2) | 65.4% | 72.2% | 79.4% | 0.91× | 1.39 |
| Osasuna (0:2) | 17.4% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 1.50× | 6.55 |
| Draw (0:2) | 17.2% | 15.3% | 10.5% | 1.45× | 6.55 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:3) | 82.6% | 85.3% | 89.8% | 0.95× | 1.17 |
| Draw (0:3) | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 1.40× | 10.08 |
| Osasuna (0:3) | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.82× | 17.20 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (0:4) | 92.7% | 94.5% | 96.8% | 0.98× | 1.06 |
| Draw (0:4) | 4.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.52× | 81.78 |
| Osasuna (0:4) | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.29× | 82.01 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (1:0) | 77.9% | 78.7% | 71.6% | 1.10× | 1.27 |
| Draw (1:0) | 13.3% | 12.7% | 17.6% | 0.72× | 7.86 |
| Racing Santander (1:0) | 8.8% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 0.63× | 14.47 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna (2:0) | 91.2% | 94.0% | 89.1% | 1.05× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 0.90× | 15.72 |
| Racing Santander (2:0) | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 0.59× | 43.64 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 50.6% | 50.1% | 51.2% | 0.98× | 2.00 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.3% | 26.3% | 26.0% | 1.01× | 3.81 |
| Halves equal | 22.1% | 24.3% | 22.9% | 1.06× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to concede | 70.9% | 73.1% | 69.9% | 1.05× | 1.37 |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 29.1% | 26.9% | 30.1% | 0.89× | 3.72 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna clean sheet in 1st half | 62.2% | 63.2% | 63.2% | 1.00× | 1.58 |
| Osasuna to concede in 1st half | 37.8% | 36.8% | 36.8% | 1.00× | 2.72 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to concede in 2nd half | 53.2% | 52.7% | 52.1% | 1.01× | 1.90 |
| Osasuna clean sheet in 2nd half | 46.9% | 47.3% | 47.9% | 0.99× | 2.11 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna over 2.5 corners | 84.6% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Osasuna over 3.5 corners | 71.7% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Osasuna under 6.5 corners | 69.4% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Osasuna over 4.5 corners | 57.1% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Osasuna under 5.5 corners | 57.1% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Osasuna under 4.5 corners | 42.9% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Osasuna over 5.5 corners | 42.9% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Osasuna over 6.5 corners | 30.6% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Osasuna under 3.5 corners | 28.3% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Osasuna under 2.5 corners | 15.4% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna over 0.5 goals | 87.6% | 87.3% | 80.4% | 1.09× | 1.15 |
| Osasuna under 3.5 goals | 84.1% | 82.2% | 92.4% | 0.89× | 1.22 |
| Osasuna under 2.5 goals | 65.3% | 67.9% | 80.2% | 0.85× | 1.47 |
| Osasuna over 1.5 goals | 61.7% | 63.6% | 42.1% | 1.51× | 1.57 |
| Osasuna under 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 36.4% | 57.9% | 0.63× | 2.75 |
| Osasuna over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 32.1% | 19.8% | 1.62× | 3.12 |
| Osasuna over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 17.8% | 7.6% | 2.35× | 5.62 |
| Osasuna under 0.5 goals | 12.4% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 0.65× | 7.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna under 1.5 in 1st half | 77.1% | 77.2% | 85.9% | 0.90× | 1.30 |
| Osasuna over 0.5 in 1st half | 59.6% | 56.7% | 47.8% | 1.19× | 1.76 |
| Osasuna under 0.5 in 1st half | 40.4% | 43.3% | 52.2% | 0.83× | 2.31 |
| Osasuna over 1.5 in 1st half | 22.9% | 22.8% | 14.1% | 1.62× | 4.38 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna scores more in 2nd half | 42.3% | 42.0% | 40.2% | 1.04× | 2.38 |
| Osasuna scores equally in both | 29.7% | 28.0% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.58 |
| Osasuna scores more in 1st half | 28.1% | 27.9% | 27.6% | 1.01× | 3.58 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander (home no bet) | 51.3% | 51.4% | 52.7% | 0.97× | 1.95 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 48.7% | 48.6% | 47.3% | 1.03× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna even goals | 50.8% | 50.7% | 47.3% | 1.07× | 1.97 |
| Osasuna odd goals | 49.2% | 49.3% | 52.7% | 0.94× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 25.2% | 28.1% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.56 |
| HT 1-0 | 22.8% | 24.3% | 22.1% | 1.10× | 4.11 |
| HT 0-1 | 12.0% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 0.69× | 9.07 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 1.08× | 9.08 |
| HT 2-0 | 10.3% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 1.69× | 9.09 |
| Any other HT score | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.53× | 14.49 |
| HT 2-1 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 0.77× | 41.94 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 0.69× | 42.08 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.43× | 42.09 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.00× | 42.19 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna at HT / Osasuna at FT | 36.7% | 41.2% | 26.2% | 1.57× | 2.43 |
| Draw at HT / Osasuna at FT | 17.1% | 16.8% | 17.8% | 0.94× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 11.3% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 0.89× | 7.91 |
| Racing Santander at HT / Racing Santander at FT | 11.1% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 0.96× | 7.91 |
| Draw at HT / Racing Santander at FT | 8.8% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 0.52× | 16.55 |
| Osasuna at HT / Draw at FT | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.15× | 16.65 |
| Racing Santander at HT / Draw at FT | 4.3% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 0.57× | 28.59 |
| Racing Santander at HT / Osasuna at FT | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.34× | 28.63 |
| Osasuna at HT / Racing Santander at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 0.92× | 28.67 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to score last | 60.6% | 62.0% | 54.8% | 1.13× | 1.61 |
| Racing Santander to score last | 35.8% | 38.7% | 40.0% | 0.97× | 2.59 |
| No goal scored | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 0.80× | 23.29 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.4% | 95.6% | 94.7% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Osasuna to lead by 1 at any time | 71.9% | 74.2% | 62.8% | 1.18× | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 57.0% | 54.8% | 41.8% | 1.31× | 1.83 |
| Osasuna to lead by 2 at any time | 42.6% | 39.1% | 26.3% | 1.49× | 2.56 |
| Racing Santander to lead by 1 at any time | 42.5% | 39.1% | 47.1% | 0.83× | 2.56 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 25.2% | 25.4% | 17.1% | 1.49× | 3.94 |
| Osasuna to lead by 3 at any time | 20.9% | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.57× | 5.12 |
| Racing Santander to lead by 2 at any time | 14.9% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 0.66× | 9.54 |
| Racing Santander to lead by 3 at any time | 4.3% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.35× | 60.37 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna most corners | 51.7% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Racing Santander most corners | 37.6% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Corners level | 10.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.4% | 83.4% | 88.6% | 0.94× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.2% | 78.7% | 72.8% | 1.08× | 1.27 |
| 1-4 goals | 72.3% | 72.4% | 80.5% | 0.90× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.4% | 72.4% | 69.1% | 1.05× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.3% | 63.3% | 60.9% | 1.04× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 59.3% | 59.1% | 47.6% | 1.24× | 1.69 |
| 1-3 goals | 54.0% | 53.2% | 68.6% | 0.77× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.5% | 53.2% | 43.9% | 1.21× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 42.0% | 43.6% | 49.1% | 0.89× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.4% | 43.6% | 35.7% | 1.22× | 2.29 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.2% | 39.2% | 23.8% | 1.65× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 31.9% | 35.2% | 44.9% | 0.79× | 2.84 |
| 4-5 goals | 30.5% | 35.2% | 20.1% | 1.75× | 2.84 |
| 5-6 goals | 18.9% | 18.8% | 12.0% | 1.58× | 5.31 |
| 7+ goals | 5.2% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.57× | 11.28 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna never behind | 53.9% | 62.5% | 52.9% | 1.18× | 1.60 |
| Racing Santander never behind | 24.5% | 24.8% | 37.2% | 0.67× | 4.03 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.9% | 53.6% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.1% | 46.4% | 1.06× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 53.2% | 51.6% | 54.3% | 0.95× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 46.8% | 48.4% | 45.7% | 1.06× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.0% | 52.0% | 49.7% | 1.05× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.0% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 0.95× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.4% | 95.4% | 94.7% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 88.1% | 87.6% | 93.8% | 0.93× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 82.3% | 75.1% | 1.10× | 1.22 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 75.9% | 77.3% | 85.7% | 0.90× | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 61.7% | 49.9% | 1.24× | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57.6% | 58.6% | 73.8% | 0.79× | 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 41.4% | 26.2% | 1.58× | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 38.3% | 50.1% | 0.76× | 2.61 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24.1% | 22.7% | 14.3% | 1.58× | 4.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 17.7% | 24.9% | 0.71× | 5.65 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 11.9% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 2.01× | 8.07 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 0.86× | 21.89 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.4% | 92.4% | 97.4% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 86.4% | 86.7% | 93.3% | 0.93× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 80.5% | 81.1% | 66.8% | 1.21× | 1.23 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 70.5% | 72.4% | 83.8% | 0.86× | 1.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 54.4% | 51.9% | 34.3% | 1.51× | 1.93 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 45.6% | 48.1% | 65.7% | 0.73× | 2.08 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 29.5% | 27.6% | 16.2% | 1.70× | 3.62 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 19.5% | 18.9% | 33.2% | 0.57× | 5.28 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 13.6% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 1.98× | 7.54 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 2.95× | 13.16 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 83.8% | 85.8% | 89.9% | 0.95× | 1.17 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 74.9% | 71.8% | 67.7% | 1.06× | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 59.9% | 63.7% | 70.1% | 0.91× | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 40.1% | 36.3% | 29.9% | 1.22× | 2.75 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 25.2% | 28.2% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.54 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 16.2% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 1.41× | 7.05 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 85.6% | 85.3% | 81.9% | 1.04× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 69.3% | 68.5% | 79.2% | 0.86× | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 57.8% | 54.9% | 46.6% | 1.18× | 1.82 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 42.2% | 45.1% | 53.4% | 0.84× | 2.22 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 30.7% | 31.5% | 20.8% | 1.52× | 3.18 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 14.4% | 14.7% | 18.1% | 0.81× | 6.81 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander not to score in both halves | 79.9% | 78.7% | 81.0% | 0.97× | 1.27 |
| Osasuna not to score in both halves | 58.7% | 58.3% | 73.7% | 0.79× | 1.72 |
| Osasuna to score in both halves | 41.3% | 41.7% | 26.3% | 1.58× | 2.40 |
| Racing Santander to score in both halves | 20.1% | 21.3% | 19.0% | 1.12× | 4.70 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 62.1% | 60.3% | 55.6% | 1.08× | 1.66 |
| Only Osasuna scores | 25.5% | 26.0% | 24.9% | 1.05× | 3.85 |
| Only Racing Santander scores | 8.8% | 7.1% | 14.4% | 0.49× | 14.02 |
| Neither team scores | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 0.87× | 21.67 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.1% | 22.6% | 23.9% | 0.94× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 19.9% | 17.5% | 25.3% | 0.69× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.3% | 17.5% | 12.0% | 1.46× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 12.0% | 12.1% | 19.6% | 0.62× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.2% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 1.46× | 8.25 |
| 6 or more goals | 11.9% | 12.1% | 6.2% | 1.97× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 0.84× | 22.41 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 34.7% | 35.9% | 38.0% | 0.95× | 2.79 |
| No goals in 1st half | 25.2% | 28.3% | 32.3% | 0.88× | 3.54 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 24.0% | 21.6% | 19.9% | 1.08× | 4.64 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 16.2% | 15.5% | 10.1% | 1.54× | 6.45 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 57.8% | 54.2% | 46.6% | 1.16× | 1.85 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 27.9% | 29.2% | 35.4% | 0.83× | 3.43 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 14.4% | 14.4% | 18.1% | 0.79× | 6.94 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander not to win both halves | 95.6% | 97.1% | 94.8% | 1.02× | 1.03 |
| Osasuna not to win both halves | 79.7% | 75.7% | 88.1% | 0.86× | 1.32 |
| Osasuna to win both halves | 20.3% | 24.3% | 11.9% | 2.05× | 4.12 |
| Racing Santander to win both halves | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 0.55× | 34.90 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to win either half | 69.9% | 67.8% | 62.4% | 1.09× | 1.48 |
| Racing Santander to win neither half | 62.2% | 65.0% | 55.9% | 1.16× | 1.54 |
| Racing Santander to win either half | 37.8% | 35.0% | 44.1% | 0.79× | 2.86 |
| Osasuna to win neither half | 30.1% | 32.2% | 37.6% | 0.86× | 3.10 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander not to win to nil | 91.2% | 92.1% | 85.6% | 1.08× | 1.09 |
| Osasuna not to win to nil | 74.5% | 75.4% | 75.1% | 1.00× | 1.33 |
| Osasuna to win to nil | 25.5% | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.99× | 4.06 |
| Racing Santander to win to nil | 8.8% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 0.55× | 12.63 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna by 1 | 22.4% | 24.1% | 25.8% | 0.93× | 4.15 |
| Draw | 20.9% | 24.1% | 25.4% | 0.95× | 4.15 |
| Osasuna by 3+ | 17.4% | 17.1% | 10.2% | 1.68× | 5.87 |
| Osasuna by 2 | 17.2% | 17.1% | 10.5% | 1.62× | 5.87 |
| Racing Santander by 1 | 13.3% | 11.7% | 17.6% | 0.67× | 8.51 |
| Racing Santander by 2 | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 1.01× | 13.91 |
| Racing Santander by 3+ | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.70× | 36.79 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 3.12 xGRacing Santander 0.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Racing Santander attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Iker Muñoz |
| 2' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 8' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 12' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentin Rosier |
| 13' |
 Racing Santander |
André Almeida | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Moi Gómez |
| 33' |
Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Racing Santander |
Matteo Prati | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Iñigo Vicente |
| 40' |
Osasuna |
Jonathan Dubasin | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rubén García |
| 40' |
Osasuna |
Jonathan Dubasin | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Osasuna |
Jonathan Dubasin | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Racing Santander |
Yassir Zabiri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | André Almeida |
| 48' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rubén García |
| 57' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 61' |
Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrés Martín |
| 62' |
Racing Santander |
Andrés Martín | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 63' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Dubasin |
| 65' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 66' |
Osasuna |
Jonathan Dubasin | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rubén García |
| 67' |
Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iñigo Vicente |
| 73' |
Osasuna |
Asier Osambela | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentin Rosier |
| 74' |
Osasuna |
Enzo Boyomo | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rubén García |
| 83' |
Racing Santander |
Pablo García | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassir Zabiri |
| 84' |
Osasuna |
Asier Osambela | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 87' |
Osasuna |
Asier Osambela | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Osasuna |
Iñigo Arguibide | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rubén García |
| 89' |
Racing Santander |
Pablo García | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Ramón |
| 90' |
Osasuna |
Raul Moro | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raul García |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rubén García FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.16 | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.81 |
| Abel Bretones DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Aitor Fernández GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jonathan Dubasin FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 1.01 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.89 |
| Iker Muñoz MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Moi Gómez MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Asier Osambela Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Lucas Torró Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raul Moro Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Iñigo Arguibide Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Raul García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
Racing Santander
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassir Zabiri FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Matteo Prati DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeanuël Belocian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Iñigo Vicente AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Álvaro Mantilla DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jorge Salinas DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sergio Canales AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| André Almeida AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Andrés Martín Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Pablo García Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Asier Villalibre Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Giorgi Guliashvili Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |