Osasuna v Racing Santander — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Osasuna

15:00 UTC

Racing Santander

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 939h before kick-off

Osasuna win

43.7%

model 40.7%

Draw

27.4%

model 26.3%

Racing Santander win

28.9%

model 33.0%

442729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
1-0 10.3%
0-1 9.1%
2-1 8.6%
1-2 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.0%	Under 2.5	52.0%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
Osasuna 1+	74.8%	Osasuna 2+	40.1%
Racing Santander 1+	70.4%	Racing Santander 2+	34.3%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.22. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time · usually 38%

65.2% fair odds 1.53

strong signal · 255 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Racing Santander (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 457 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Osasuna average 1.62 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Racing Santander were missing 0.75 expected goal involvements a match against 0.45.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Osasuna have an estimated 43.7% win probability, against 28.9% for Racing Santander and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Osasuna and 1.22 for Racing Santander.

Why Osasuna

At home Osasuna average 1.62 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Racing Santander were missing 0.75 expected goal involvements a match against 0.45.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.38 to 1.22. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Racing Santander can win

Racing Santander carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1483.

Key players

Osasuna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ante Budimir (0.61), Víctor Muñoz (0.27), Rubén García (0.20). Racing Santander's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrés Martín (0.43), Yassir Zabiri (0.26), Iñigo Vicente (0.24).

Availability

1 of Osasuna's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Racing Santander's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Osasuna: 47% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Racing Santander: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Osasuna are the model's most likely outcome at 43.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLDWWL last 10 scored 12 from 15.1 xG conceded 17 from 12.8 xG

Racing Santander are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 4.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLWL last 4 scored 7 from 6.3 xG conceded 8 from 4.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412633	1.38–1.22	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392833	1.27–1.13	1-1 13%	43%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to win	39.7%	36.4%	46.8%	0.78×	2.75
Racing Santander to win	33.7%	30.4%	28.1%	1.08×	3.29
Draw	26.6%	27.8%	25.2%	1.11×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna & not both score	22.0%	21.8%	25.3%	0.86×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	17.9%	20.2%	0.89×	5.58
Racing Santander & not both score	18.4%	17.9%	14.6%	1.23×	5.58
Osasuna & both teams score	17.7%	17.9%	21.7%	0.83×	5.58
Racing Santander & both teams score	15.3%	17.9%	13.7%	1.31×	5.58
Draw & not both score	7.8%	8.4%	5.1%	1.64×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna & over 1.5	29.2%	26.0%	34.1%	0.76×	3.84
Osasuna & under 3.5	29.0%	26.0%	33.0%	0.79×	3.84
Racing Santander & under 3.5	25.2%	26.0%	21.7%	1.20×	3.84
Racing Santander & over 1.5	24.2%	21.6%	21.2%	1.02×	4.63
Osasuna & over 2.5	22.2%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	20.1%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	20.1%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Racing Santander & over 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	16.7%	1.08×	5.56
Osasuna & under 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Racing Santander & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	11.6%	1.55×	5.56
Osasuna & under 1.5	10.4%	12.9%	12.8%	1.00×	7.76
Osasuna & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	13.9%	0.92×	7.76
Racing Santander & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.65
Racing Santander & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.2%	1.51×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.2%	1.51×	12.65

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (1UP)	55.3%	57.9%	63.2%	0.92×	1.73
Racing Santander (1UP)	50.1%	52.6%	47.1%	1.12×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (2UP)	39.7%	37.3%	48.7%	0.77×	2.68
Racing Santander (2UP)	33.7%	30.9%	29.7%	1.04×	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to win 2nd half	43.0%	41.2%	39.5%	1.04×	2.43
2nd half drawn	38.4%	36.0%	33.0%	1.09×	2.78
Racing Santander to win 2nd half	18.7%	19.1%	27.7%	0.69×	5.23

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.2%	92.1%	84.5%	1.09×	1.09
Racing Santander under 0.5 in 2nd half	63.1%	59.1%	48.3%	1.22×	1.69
Racing Santander over 0.5 in 2nd half	36.9%	40.9%	51.7%	0.79×	2.44
Racing Santander over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.8%	7.9%	15.5%	0.51×	12.61

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	75.8%	80.0%	0.95×	1.32
Osasuna over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.7%	59.0%	58.7%	1.01×	1.70
Osasuna under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.3%	41.0%	41.3%	0.99×	2.44
Osasuna over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	24.2%	20.0%	1.21×	4.13

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (+2.5)	93.5%	92.1%	90.0%	1.02×	1.09
Racing Santander (+1.5)	81.9%	82.5%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Osasuna (+0.5)	66.3%	68.7%	71.9%	0.96×	1.46
Racing Santander (+0.5)	60.3%	62.9%	53.2%	1.18×	1.59
Osasuna (-0.5)	39.7%	37.1%	46.8%	0.79×	2.70
Racing Santander (-0.5)	33.7%	31.3%	28.1%	1.11×	3.20
Osasuna (-1.5)	18.1%	17.5%	20.8%	0.84×	5.70
Osasuna (-2.5)	6.5%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.61

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to concede	73.8%	76.6%	80.4%	0.95×	1.31
Racing Santander clean sheet	26.2%	23.4%	19.6%	1.20×	4.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander clean sheet in 1st half	62.0%	64.8%	51.9%	1.25×	1.54
Racing Santander to concede in 1st half	38.0%	35.2%	48.1%	0.73×	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to concede in 2nd half	57.7%	58.6%	58.7%	1.00×	1.71
Racing Santander clean sheet in 2nd half	42.3%	41.4%	41.3%	1.00×	2.42

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander over 2.5 corners	78.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Racing Santander under 6.5 corners	78.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Racing Santander under 5.5 corners	66.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Racing Santander over 3.5 corners	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Racing Santander under 4.5 corners	52.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Racing Santander over 4.5 corners	47.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Racing Santander under 3.5 corners	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Racing Santander over 5.5 corners	33.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Racing Santander over 6.5 corners	21.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Racing Santander under 2.5 corners	21.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 3.5 goals	96.5%	97.5%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Racing Santander under 2.5 goals	87.7%	87.9%	90.0%	0.98×	1.14
Racing Santander over 0.5 goals	70.2%	71.8%	69.7%	1.03×	1.39
Racing Santander under 1.5 goals	65.8%	68.0%	68.1%	1.00×	1.47
Racing Santander over 1.5 goals	34.2%	32.0%	31.9%	1.00×	3.12
Racing Santander under 0.5 goals	29.8%	28.2%	30.3%	0.93×	3.55
Racing Santander over 2.5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	10.0%	1.22×	8.24
Racing Santander over 3.5 goals	3.5%	2.5%	2.7%	0.91×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	83.0%	93.3%	0.89×	1.21
Racing Santander over 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	55.7%	36.6%	1.52×	1.79
Racing Santander under 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	44.3%	63.4%	0.70×	2.26
Racing Santander over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	17.0%	6.7%	2.52×	5.88

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander scores equally in both	41.0%	43.8%	42.2%	1.04×	2.29
Racing Santander scores more in 1st half	38.7%	36.5%	20.8%	1.75×	2.74
Racing Santander scores more in 2nd half	20.3%	22.4%	37.1%	0.60×	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (away no bet)	59.8%	57.4%	65.1%	0.88×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.2%	42.6%	34.9%	1.22×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander even goals	54.4%	52.8%	53.9%	0.98×	1.89
Racing Santander odd goals	45.6%	47.2%	46.1%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.8%	87.7%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.2%	12.3%	13.1%	0.94×	8.12

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.6%	60.5%	62.4%	0.97×	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.4%	39.5%	37.6%	1.05×	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.0%	51.3%	52.3%	0.98×	1.95
Osasuna to score 2+ in a row	30.9%	29.0%	34.3%	0.85×	3.45
Racing Santander to score 2+ in a row	26.4%	25.0%	23.6%	1.06×	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.0%	16.3%	18.9%	0.86×	6.14
Osasuna to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.7%	13.0%	0.44×	17.55
Racing Santander to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.6%	6.4%	0.89×	17.73

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna corners (+3.5)	87.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Osasuna corners (+2.5)	80.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Racing Santander corners (+3.5)	77.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Osasuna corners (+1.5)	72.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Racing Santander corners (+2.5)	68.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Racing Santander corners (+1.5)	58.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Osasuna corners (-1.5)	41.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Osasuna corners (-2.5)	31.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Racing Santander corners (-1.5)	27.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Osasuna corners (-3.5)	22.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Racing Santander corners (-2.5)	19.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Racing Santander corners (-3.5)	13.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	37.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	27.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.7%	11.4%	15.1%	0.76×	8.74
1-0	10.4%	11.4%	12.8%	0.89×	8.74
0-1	9.5%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.50
0-0	7.8%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.50
1-2	7.7%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.50
2-0	7.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.50
0-2	5.7%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.50
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	4.4%	1.70×	13.50
0-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.97×	58.32
1-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.31
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.32
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-1	3.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	2.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (2nd half DNB)	69.7%	70.2%	58.7%	1.19×	1.43
Racing Santander (2nd half DNB)	30.3%	29.8%	41.3%	0.72×	3.35

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)	64.4%	65.8%	37.7%	1.74×	1.52
Osasuna leading at HT (DNB)	35.6%	34.2%	62.3%	0.55×	2.92

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna or Racing Santander (12)	73.4%	72.2%	74.8%	0.96×	1.39
Osasuna or draw (1X)	66.3%	69.6%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Racing Santander or draw (X2)	60.3%	63.6%	53.2%	1.20×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw at HT	78.9%	80.0%	64.5%	1.24×	1.25
Osasuna or draw at HT	61.8%	62.0%	78.5%	0.79×	1.61
Osasuna or Racing Santander at HT	59.3%	57.0%	56.8%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna or draw (1UP)	66.3%	75.9%	78.2%	0.97×	1.32
Racing Santander or draw (1UP)	60.3%	71.6%	60.1%	1.19×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna or draw in 2nd half	81.3%	80.9%	72.3%	1.12×	1.24
Osasuna or Racing Santander in 2nd half	61.6%	64.0%	67.0%	0.95×	1.56
Racing Santander or draw in 2nd half	57.0%	58.9%	60.5%	0.97×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.5%	61.7%	62.2%	0.99×	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.5%	38.3%	37.8%	1.01×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (DNB)	54.1%	50.9%	62.5%	0.82×	1.96
Racing Santander (DNB)	45.9%	49.1%	37.5%	1.31×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to score first	48.4%	45.6%	55.4%	0.82×	2.19
Racing Santander to score first	43.8%	41.9%	39.6%	1.06×	2.39
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	5.1%	1.47×	13.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.8%	51.3%	55.3%	0.93×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.2%	48.7%	44.7%	1.09×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.5%	41.6%	35.4%	1.18×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	39.1%	38.5%	40.3%	0.95×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.7%	12.3%	15.1%	0.82×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.00

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.8%	85.6%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.2%	14.4%	13.8%	1.04×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.7%	75.4%	71.4%	1.06×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.3%	24.6%	28.6%	0.86×	4.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.9%	66.5%	60.3%	1.10×	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	17.0%	15.6%	23.1%	0.68×	6.39
Both score 1st half only	15.8%	15.6%	11.2%	1.39×	6.42
Both score in both halves	4.3%	5.0%	5.6%	0.90×	19.86

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.9%	81.5%	83.3%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.1%	18.5%	16.7%	1.10×	5.41

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.9%	53.3%	54.8%	0.97×	1.88
A half without a goal	48.1%	46.7%	45.2%	1.03×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.3%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.7%	26.6%	24.8%	1.07×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.8%	22.8%	23.4%	0.98×	4.38
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	2.2%	0.82×	54.73

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score exactly 1	36.1%	36.0%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Racing Santander to score exactly 0	29.8%	27.4%	30.3%	0.91×	3.65
Racing Santander to score exactly 2	21.9%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.47
Racing Santander to score 3+	12.3%	12.8%	10.0%	1.29×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.6%	38.4%	0.93×	2.81
Osasuna to score exactly 0	26.2%	26.5%	19.6%	1.36×	3.77
Osasuna to score exactly 2	23.5%	23.2%	22.7%	1.03×	4.31
Osasuna to score 3+	15.2%	18.9%	19.7%	0.96×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.7%	43.0%	43.2%	1.00×	2.33
Racing Santander leading at HT	38.2%	38.0%	21.5%	1.77×	2.63
Osasuna leading at HT	21.1%	20.0%	35.5%	0.56×	5.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna -1: 2	60.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Osasuna -1: X	21.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Osasuna -1: 1	18.1%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:1)	60.3%	61.5%	53.2%	1.16×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	21.5%	24.3%	26.2%	0.93×	4.12
Osasuna (0:1)	18.1%	17.8%	20.8%	0.86×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:2)	81.9%	82.9%	79.2%	1.05×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.6%	10.9%	11.0%	1.00×	9.17
Osasuna (0:2)	6.5%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	12.98

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:3)	93.5%	92.6%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	7.1%	0.34×	42.02
Osasuna (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	83.58
Osasuna (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	0.7%	1.60×	83.70

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (1:0)	66.3%	70.0%	71.9%	0.97×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.5%	17.0%	17.7%	0.96×	5.88
Racing Santander (1:0)	14.2%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.83

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (2:0)	85.8%	88.4%	89.4%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.5%	6.5%	6.8%	0.94×	15.47
Racing Santander (2:0)	4.7%	2.3%	3.9%	0.59×	43.56

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	38.8%	38.8%	51.3%	0.76×	2.58
1st half highest scoring	34.5%	30.7%	26.3%	1.16×	3.26
Halves equal	26.7%	26.5%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to concede	70.2%	73.0%	69.7%	1.05×	1.37
Osasuna clean sheet	29.8%	27.0%	30.3%	0.89×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to concede in 1st half	52.8%	55.7%	36.6%	1.52×	1.79
Osasuna clean sheet in 1st half	47.2%	44.3%	63.4%	0.70×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna clean sheet in 2nd half	63.1%	58.9%	48.3%	1.22×	1.70
Osasuna to concede in 2nd half	36.9%	41.1%	51.7%	0.80×	2.43

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna over 2.5 corners	84.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Osasuna over 3.5 corners	72.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Osasuna under 6.5 corners	69.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Osasuna over 4.5 corners	57.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Osasuna under 5.5 corners	56.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Osasuna over 5.5 corners	43.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Osasuna under 4.5 corners	42.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Osasuna over 6.5 corners	31.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Osasuna under 3.5 corners	27.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Osasuna under 2.5 corners	15.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.3%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Osasuna under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.1%	80.3%	1.02×	1.22
Osasuna over 0.5 goals	73.8%	74.2%	80.4%	0.92×	1.35
Osasuna under 1.5 goals	61.3%	63.5%	57.8%	1.10×	1.57
Osasuna over 1.5 goals	38.7%	36.5%	42.2%	0.86×	2.74
Osasuna under 0.5 goals	26.2%	25.8%	19.6%	1.32×	3.88
Osasuna over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.9%	19.7%	0.91×	5.59
Osasuna over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.7%	7.3%	0.50×	27.24

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 1.5 in 1st half	91.6%	95.3%	86.0%	1.11×	1.05
Osasuna under 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	64.6%	51.9%	1.24×	1.55
Osasuna over 0.5 in 1st half	38.0%	35.4%	48.1%	0.74×	2.82
Osasuna over 1.5 in 1st half	8.4%	4.7%	14.0%	0.33×	21.46

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna scores more in 2nd half	42.5%	42.4%	40.0%	1.06×	2.36
Osasuna scores equally in both	38.2%	37.7%	32.5%	1.16×	2.65
Osasuna scores more in 1st half	19.3%	14.9%	27.7%	0.54×	6.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (home no bet)	55.9%	56.6%	52.8%	1.07×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.1%	43.4%	47.2%	0.92×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna even goals	53.4%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Osasuna odd goals	46.6%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.9%	32.1%	0.90×	3.46
HT 0-1	22.0%	24.2%	16.2%	1.49×	4.14
HT 1-0	14.0%	10.9%	22.7%	0.48×	9.14
HT 1-1	10.5%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.17
HT 0-2	8.3%	7.1%	3.1%	2.29×	14.01
Any other HT score	5.3%	7.1%	4.5%	1.58×	14.05
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.3%	1.5%	1.54×	43.41
HT 2-0	3.3%	2.3%	6.2%	0.37×	43.46
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.52
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	1.2%	1.84×	43.64

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander at HT / Racing Santander at FT	25.5%	26.9%	12.9%	2.09×	3.72
Osasuna at HT / Osasuna at FT	17.8%	16.8%	26.5%	0.63×	5.97
Draw at HT / Osasuna at FT	17.5%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.6%	16.7%	14.0%	1.20×	5.98
Racing Santander at HT / Draw at FT	8.4%	6.0%	6.1%	0.98×	16.63
Draw at HT / Racing Santander at FT	7.6%	6.0%	11.5%	0.52×	16.66
Racing Santander at HT / Osasuna at FT	4.3%	3.5%	2.7%	1.27×	28.75
Osasuna at HT / Draw at FT	2.6%	3.5%	5.2%	0.66×	28.82
Osasuna at HT / Racing Santander at FT	0.6%	3.5%	4.0%	0.87×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to score last	48.4%	46.8%	55.7%	0.84×	2.14
Racing Santander to score last	43.8%	40.1%	39.3%	1.02×	2.49
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	5.1%	1.47×	13.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.2%	92.6%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Osasuna to lead by 1 at any time	55.3%	55.0%	63.2%	0.87×	1.82
Racing Santander to lead by 1 at any time	50.1%	50.7%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.1%	39.2%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
Osasuna to lead by 2 at any time	23.8%	19.6%	26.5%	0.74×	5.10
Racing Santander to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	14.9%	15.5%	0.96×	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	16.7%	0.63×	9.52
Osasuna to lead by 3 at any time	8.2%	6.6%	12.2%	0.54×	15.07
Racing Santander to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	6.6%	4.6%	1.43×	15.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna most corners	51.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Racing Santander most corners	37.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.6%	83.4%	81.2%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.7%	72.4%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.7%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.9%	68.9%	69.5%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.7%	63.4%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.6%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.3%	48.6%	45.3%	1.07×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.3%	48.6%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.3%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	35.3%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.8%	24.5%	23.4%	1.05×	4.08
4-5 goals	20.8%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.08
5-6 goals	10.0%	8.9%	11.7%	0.76×	11.30
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	2.2%	1.14×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna never behind	42.1%	48.2%	52.9%	0.91×	2.07
Racing Santander never behind	36.9%	44.6%	36.8%	1.21×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	53.6%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.0%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	48.0%	50.3%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.2%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.4%	87.6%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.7%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.3%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.1%	52.6%	50.3%	1.05×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.4%	49.7%	0.95×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.7%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.3%	27.5%	25.5%	1.08×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	13.8%	0.90×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	7.8%	7.8%	5.1%	1.52×	12.87
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.91

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.1%	97.2%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.6%	86.7%	84.3%	1.03×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.7%	67.5%	66.3%	1.02×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.8%	61.9%	66.7%	0.93×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.2%	38.1%	33.3%	1.15×	2.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.3%	32.5%	33.7%	0.97×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.4%	13.3%	15.7%	0.85×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.9%	2.8%	6.4%	0.44×	35.78
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	2.3%	1.20×	35.88

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.0%	89.9%	0.99×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.2%	67.9%	1.05×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.2%	69.0%	70.8%	0.97×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.8%	31.0%	29.2%	1.06×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.8%	32.1%	0.90×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.7%	11.0%	10.1%	1.09×	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.2%	85.3%	79.7%	1.07×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.3%	77.7%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	61.6%	53.7%	1.15×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	38.4%	46.3%	0.83×	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.7%	22.3%	18.2%	1.22×	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.8%	14.7%	20.4%	0.72×	6.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander not to score in both halves	80.5%	84.3%	81.4%	1.04×	1.19
Osasuna not to score in both halves	78.1%	78.3%	73.7%	1.06×	1.28
Osasuna to score in both halves	21.9%	21.7%	26.3%	0.83×	4.60
Racing Santander to score in both halves	19.5%	15.7%	18.6%	0.85×	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.8%	53.9%	55.3%	0.97×	1.86
Only Osasuna scores	22.0%	22.3%	25.3%	0.88×	4.49
Only Racing Santander scores	18.4%	16.0%	14.6%	1.10×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.8%	7.2%	5.1%	1.41×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.9%	17.4%	19.8%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.8%	12.1%	11.8%	1.02×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	7.8%	7.6%	5.1%	1.50×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.08
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.5%	5.9%	0.76×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.1%	38.8%	0.95×	2.70
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.6%	32.1%	0.89×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.7%	19.2%	1.13×	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	12.7%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.0%	40.1%	46.3%	0.87×	2.49
1 goal in 2nd half	35.3%	39.8%	35.6%	1.12×	2.51
No goals in 2nd half	26.7%	29.8%	18.2%	1.63×	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander not to win both halves	92.9%	94.0%	94.6%	0.99×	1.06
Osasuna not to win both halves	90.9%	93.9%	88.1%	1.07×	1.07
Osasuna to win both halves	9.1%	6.1%	11.9%	0.51×	16.48
Racing Santander to win both halves	7.1%	6.0%	5.4%	1.12×	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to win either half	55.0%	55.0%	63.0%	0.87×	1.82
Racing Santander to win neither half	50.3%	54.9%	56.2%	0.98×	1.82
Racing Santander to win either half	49.7%	45.1%	43.8%	1.03×	2.22
Osasuna to win neither half	45.0%	45.0%	37.0%	1.22×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander not to win to nil	81.6%	83.1%	85.4%	0.97×	1.20
Osasuna not to win to nil	78.0%	78.1%	74.7%	1.05×	1.28
Osasuna to win to nil	22.0%	21.9%	25.3%	0.87×	4.57
Racing Santander to win to nil	18.4%	16.9%	14.6%	1.16×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.6%	27.9%	25.2%	1.11×	3.59
Osasuna by 1	21.5%	24.2%	26.2%	0.92×	4.14
Racing Santander by 1	19.5%	16.9%	17.7%	0.96×	5.90
Osasuna by 2	11.6%	11.8%	11.0%	1.07×	8.50
Racing Santander by 2	9.5%	7.2%	6.8%	1.06×	13.80
Osasuna by 3+	6.5%	7.2%	10.0%	0.73×	13.81
Racing Santander by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	3.9%	0.71×	36.61