Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 19
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+0.60 – -0.98
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
45.0%
Draw
23.4%
Rayo Vallecano win
31.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–1.31 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.40 xGRayo Vallecano 0.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 8' |
 Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 14' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 21' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jozhua Vertrouwd |
| 24' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 30' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 32' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 38' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pep Chavarría |
| 39' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 47' |
Osasuna |
Abel Bretones | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 54' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jozhua Vertrouwd |
| 55' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 65' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 68' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Osasuna |
Iker Benito | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jon Moncayola |
| 79' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 79' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 81' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Óscar Trejo |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jozhua Vertrouwd | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Samu Becerra |
| 88' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 89' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 92' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Trejo |
| 94' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Augusto Batalla |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abel Bretones DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Valentin Rosier DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Juan Cruz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aimar Oroz FWR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Raul García FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Víctor Muñoz FWL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Rubén García Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ante Budimir Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Iker Benito Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Pathé Ciss MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Isi Palazón MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Pedro Díaz FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd Sub | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Álvaro García ML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Unai López MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| Alemão Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luiz Felipe DC | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samu Becerra Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 |