Osasuna v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 13
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.22 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.96 – +0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
56.8%
Draw
27.1%
Real Oviedo win
16.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–0.67 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–0.70 | 1-0 16% | 39% | 40% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 2.04 xGReal Oviedo 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 2' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 4' |
 Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 11' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 20' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 28' |
Osasuna |
Moi Gómez | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Galán |
| 38' |
Real Oviedo |
Lucas Ahijado | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Goal | Haissem Hassan |
| 44' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Goal | Javi Galán |
| 49' |
Real Oviedo |
Oier Luengo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 53' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 54' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Haissem Hassan |
| 56' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rubén García |
| 65' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Aimar Oroz |
| 67' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Oier Luengo |
| 74' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.53 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Enzo Boyomo |
| 82' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Galán |
| 84' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 85' |
Real Oviedo |
Nicolás Fonseca | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haissem Hassan |
| 88' |
Real Oviedo |
Rahim Alhassane | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Real Oviedo |
Luka Ilic | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 99' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.98 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Víctor Muñoz AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Rubén García AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| Aimar Oroz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lucas Torró DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Moi Gómez DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Raul García Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Enzo Boyomo Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.00 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Asier Osambela Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Viñas FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.84 | 0.12 | 0.93 |
| Alberto Reina FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.55 | 0.97 |
| Ilyas Chaira ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Oier Luengo DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Lucas Ahijado DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Rahim Alhassane DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Haissem Hassan MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Kwasi Sibo MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Santiago Colombatto MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Nicolás Fonseca Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leander Dendoncker Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Ilic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Borbas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |