Osasuna v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 19
On target
4 – 9
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.25
Goals − xG
-0.29 – +1.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Osasuna win
42.9%
Draw
28.5%
Real Sociedad win
28.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWWLLLDLW last 10
scored 10
from 13.9 xG
conceded 19
from 15.1 xG
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DLLWDWLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.5 xG
conceded 18
from 19.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.41–1.10 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Osasuna 1.29 xGReal Sociedad 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Osasuna attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Osasuna |
Abel Bretones | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 6' |
 Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 16' |
Real Sociedad |
Duje Caleta-Car | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 18' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 21' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 22' |
Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 26' |
Osasuna |
Moi Gómez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 34' |
Real Sociedad |
Arsen Zakharyan | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Catena |
| 41' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Goal | Aimar Oroz |
| 44' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 52' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Carlos Soler |
| 56' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 57' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 58' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 61' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 66' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 70' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 72' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 75' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alejandro Catena |
| 78' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Gorrotxategi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 84' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raul García |
| 84' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 94' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 95' |
Osasuna |
Abel Bretones | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aimar Oroz |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Raul García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Abel Bretones DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Aimar Oroz FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.07 | 0.69 | 0.23 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Víctor Muñoz FWR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Moi Gómez MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jon Moncayola DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Juan Cruz DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén García Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Iñigo Arguibide Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ante Budimir Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jorge Herrando Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 1.29 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.76 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| Brais Méndez FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.59 |
| Aihen Muñoz DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Gonçalo Guedes MR | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Arsen Zakharyan ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| Takefusa Kubo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Sergio Gómez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aritz Elustondo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |