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Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · CRO-HNL · 2627

CRO-HNL results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Osijek win
12.5%
model 11.2%
Draw
22.6%
model 22.6%
Dinamo Zagreb win
65.0%
model 66.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,497 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-2 11.8%
  2. 1-1 10.8%
  3. 1-2 9.7%
  4. 0-1 9.1%
  5. 0-3 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.557.3% Under 2.542.7%
BTTS yes51.4% BTTS no48.6%
Osijek 1+56.1% Osijek 2+19.9%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+88.5% Dinamo Zagreb 2+63.5%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
75%
★ Best pick
Dinamo Zagreb (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 27%
67.9% fair odds 1.47
strong signal · 11851 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1603 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Dinamo Zagreb carry the stronger rating, 1533 Elo against 1480.

Risk factors

  • The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.75).
  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Osijek have only 1 matches on record.
  • Dinamo Zagreb have only 9 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dinamo Zagreb have an estimated 65.0% win probability, against 22.6% for the draw and 12.5% for Osijek. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.82 for Osijek and 2.16 for Dinamo Zagreb.

Why Osijek

At home Osijek average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%.

Why Dinamo Zagreb can win

Dinamo Zagreb carry the stronger rating, 1533 Elo against 1480.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Osijek, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dinamo Zagreb, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Osijek: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dinamo Zagreb: 36% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Dinamo Zagreb are the model's most likely outcome at 65.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 11.8%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.82–2.16 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.18–1.31 0-1 13% 45% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb to win 73.9% 73.2% 27.0% 2.71× 1.37
Draw 19.0% 19.4% 26.1% 0.74× 5.15
Osijek to win 7.0% 8.6% 47.4% 0.18× 11.61
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb & not both score 45.4% 42.7% 14.2% 3.01× 2.34
Dinamo Zagreb & both teams score 28.5% 25.5% 13.3% 1.92× 3.93
Draw & both teams score 12.6% 13.2% 18.5% 0.72× 7.55
Draw & not both score 6.4% 8.4% 8.1% 1.04× 11.95
Osijek & both teams score 4.0% 4.9% 21.8% 0.23× 20.28
Osijek & not both score 3.0% 4.9% 26.1% 0.19× 20.30
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb & over 1.5 63.9% 55.2% 24.2% 2.28× 1.81
Dinamo Zagreb & over 2.5 50.3% 48.7% 16.6% 2.94× 2.05
Dinamo Zagreb & under 3.5 43.4% 40.0% 17.1% 2.35× 2.50
Dinamo Zagreb & over 3.5 30.6% 31.0% 10.4% 2.98× 3.22
Dinamo Zagreb & under 2.5 23.7% 21.6% 10.9% 1.98× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 15.5% 18.0% 19.4% 0.92× 5.57
Draw & under 3.5 15.5% 18.0% 19.4% 0.92× 5.57
Draw & over 1.5 12.6% 12.9% 18.5% 0.70× 7.77
Dinamo Zagreb & under 1.5 10.0% 12.9% 3.3% 3.88× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 6.4% 8.0% 8.1% 0.99× 12.56
Osijek & over 1.5 5.3% 8.0% 39.3% 0.20× 12.57
Osijek & under 3.5 5.5% 8.0% 33.2% 0.24× 12.57
Osijek & over 2.5 4.3% 4.9% 28.4% 0.17× 20.53
Draw & over 2.5 3.5% 4.9% 7.1% 0.69× 20.53
Draw & over 3.5 3.5% 4.9% 7.1% 0.69× 20.53
Osijek & under 2.5 2.8% 4.9% 19.4% 0.25× 20.53
Osijek & under 1.5 1.7% 4.9% 8.5% 0.57× 20.54
Osijek & over 3.5 1.6% 4.9% 14.7% 0.33× 20.54
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (1UP) 82.3% 87.1% 1.15
Osijek (1UP) 22.4% 22.7% 4.40
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (2UP) 73.9% 80.9% 1.24
Osijek (2UP) 7.0% 8.4% 11.85
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb to win 2nd half 63.1% 59.4% 1.68
2nd half drawn 27.8% 26.4% 3.79
Osijek to win 2nd half 9.1% 8.1% 12.38
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.7% 79.4% 1.26
Dinamo Zagreb under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.7% 55.5% 1.80
Dinamo Zagreb over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.3% 44.5% 2.25
Dinamo Zagreb under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.3% 20.6% 4.86
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek under 1.5 in 2nd half 94.5% 94.6% 1.06
Osijek under 0.5 in 2nd half 68.8% 71.2% 1.41
Osijek over 0.5 in 2nd half 31.2% 28.8% 3.47
Osijek over 1.5 in 2nd half 5.5% 5.4% 18.57
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (+2.5) 99.6% 96.3% 90.0% 1.07× 1.04
Dinamo Zagreb (+1.5) 97.9% 96.3% 72.5% 1.33× 1.04
Dinamo Zagreb (+0.5) 93.0% 92.1% 52.6% 1.75× 1.09
Dinamo Zagreb (-0.5) 73.9% 73.7% 27.0% 2.73× 1.36
Osijek (+0.5) 26.1% 26.3% 73.0% 0.36× 3.80
Osijek (-0.5) 7.0% 7.9% 47.4% 0.17× 12.68
Osijek (-1.5) 2.1% 3.7% 27.5% 0.14× 26.85
Osijek (-2.5) 0.4% 3.7% 10.0% 0.37× 26.95
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet 51.8% 55.9% 21.8% 2.56× 1.79
Dinamo Zagreb to concede 48.2% 44.1% 78.2% 0.56× 2.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet in 1st half 75.4% 76.7% 1.30
Dinamo Zagreb to concede in 1st half 24.6% 23.3% 4.29
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet in 2nd half 68.8% 66.7% 1.50
Dinamo Zagreb to concede in 2nd half 31.2% 33.3% 3.00
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb over 0.5 goals 90.6% 92.2% 66.4% 1.39× 1.09
Dinamo Zagreb under 3.5 goals 78.7% 76.1% 94.8% 0.80× 1.31
Dinamo Zagreb over 1.5 goals 68.3% 67.9% 34.6% 1.96× 1.47
Dinamo Zagreb under 2.5 goals 58.0% 59.0% 87.7% 0.67× 1.70
Dinamo Zagreb over 2.5 goals 42.0% 41.0% 12.3% 3.33× 2.44
Dinamo Zagreb under 1.5 goals 31.7% 32.1% 65.4% 0.49× 3.11
Dinamo Zagreb over 3.5 goals 21.3% 23.9% 5.2% 4.58× 4.19
Dinamo Zagreb under 0.5 goals 9.4% 7.8% 33.6% 0.23× 12.77
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb under 1.5 in 1st half 75.6% 75.9% 1.32
Dinamo Zagreb over 0.5 in 1st half 61.1% 64.0% 1.56
Dinamo Zagreb under 0.5 in 1st half 38.9% 36.0% 2.78
Dinamo Zagreb over 1.5 in 1st half 24.4% 24.1% 4.14
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb scores more in 2nd half 47.9% 48.5% 2.06
Dinamo Zagreb scores equally in both 27.0% 26.1% 3.83
Dinamo Zagreb scores more in 1st half 25.1% 26.0% 3.84
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 73.0% 68.5% 35.5% 1.93× 1.46
Osijek (away no bet) 27.0% 31.5% 64.5% 0.49× 3.17
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb even goals 50.4% 52.8% 59.2% 0.89× 1.89
Dinamo Zagreb odd goals 49.6% 47.2% 40.8% 1.16× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.5% 82.9% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.5% 17.1% 5.86
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 70.4% 67.2% 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.6% 32.8% 3.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 67.6% 62.2% 1.61
Dinamo Zagreb to score 2+ in a row 63.0% 60.0% 1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 35.6% 36.4% 2.75
Dinamo Zagreb to score 3+ in a row 34.6% 29.2% 3.43
Osijek to score 2+ in a row 8.4% 5.7% 17.66
Osijek to score 3+ in a row 1.2% 2.5% 39.95
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-2 13.6% 11.4% 8.1% 1.41× 8.80
0-3 10.7% 11.4% 1.9% 5.99× 8.80
0-1 10.0% 11.4% 3.3% 3.42× 8.81
1-1 9.1% 7.4% 11.8% 0.62× 13.53
1-2 9.0% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.53
Any other score 9.1% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.53
0-0 6.4% 7.4% 8.1% 0.92× 13.54
1-3 7.1% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.54
0-4 6.3% 7.4% 1.4% 5.20× 13.54
1-0 1.7% 1.7% 8.5% 0.20× 57.57
1-4 4.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.92× 57.56
2-0 1.1% 1.7% 11.4% 0.15× 57.57
2-1 2.5% 1.7% 10.9% 0.16× 57.57
2-2 2.9% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 57.56
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.83× 57.57
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.57
3-0 0.2% 1.7% 3.8% 0.46× 57.58
3-1 0.5% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 57.58
3-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.92× 57.58
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
4-0 0.0% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.58
4-1 0.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 57.58
4-2 0.1% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 57.58
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.66× 57.58
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (2nd half DNB) 87.4% 86.9% 1.15
Osijek (2nd half DNB) 12.6% 13.1% 7.66
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb leading at HT (DNB) 82.9% 86.7% 1.15
Osijek leading at HT (DNB) 17.1% 13.3% 7.54
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb or draw (X2) 93.0% 91.4% 52.6% 1.74× 1.09
Osijek or Dinamo Zagreb (12) 81.0% 80.6% 73.9% 1.09× 1.24
Osijek or draw (1X) 26.1% 26.8% 73.0% 0.37× 3.73
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb or draw at HT 89.4% 88.4% 1.13
Osijek or Dinamo Zagreb at HT 61.8% 62.0% 1.61
Osijek or draw at HT 48.8% 52.5% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb or draw (1UP) 93.0% 93.7% 1.07
Osijek or draw (1UP) 26.1% 31.3% 3.19
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb or draw in 2nd half 90.9% 91.9% 1.09
Osijek or Dinamo Zagreb in 2nd half 72.2% 73.6% 1.36
Osijek or draw in 2nd half 36.9% 40.6% 2.46
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 46.4% 50.0% 2.00
A half drawn 53.6% 50.0% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (DNB) 91.3% 92.7% 36.3% 2.55× 1.08
Osijek (DNB) 8.7% 7.3% 63.7% 0.11× 13.67
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb to score first 73.2% 75.2% 1.33
Osijek to score first 20.4% 22.3% 4.48
No goal scored 6.4% 7.5% 13.39
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 54.9% 51.6% 47.4% 1.09× 1.94
Both teams to score 45.1% 48.4% 52.6% 0.92× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 36.0% 38.6% 41.2% 0.94× 2.59
Not both score & under 2.5 32.8% 34.4% 37.4% 0.92× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 22.0% 28.4% 10.4% 2.72× 3.53
Both score & under 2.5 9.1% 8.4% 11.8% 0.71× 11.93
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.4% 88.9% 88.2% 1.01× 1.13
Both teams to score 2+ 9.6% 11.1% 11.8% 0.94× 8.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.8% 75.0% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.2% 25.0% 4.00
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.1% 66.6% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 20.6% 20.8% 4.81
Both score 1st half only 11.7% 10.7% 9.34
Both score in both halves 3.6% 5.0% 20.01
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.7% 82.5% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.3% 17.5% 5.73
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 59.6% 57.4% 1.74
A half without a goal 40.4% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.2% 46.9% 50.2% 0.93× 2.13
4-6 goals 32.3% 30.9% 29.4% 1.05× 3.24
0-1 goals 18.1% 20.2% 19.0% 1.07× 4.94
7+ goals 3.4% 1.9% 2.4% 0.78× 53.80
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb to score 3+ 42.0% 37.1% 12.3% 3.01× 2.69
Dinamo Zagreb to score exactly 2 26.3% 27.6% 22.7% 1.21× 3.63
Dinamo Zagreb to score exactly 1 22.3% 22.5% 32.2% 0.70× 4.44
Dinamo Zagreb to score exactly 0 9.4% 8.8% 33.6% 0.26× 11.39
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek to score exactly 0 51.8% 43.0% 21.8% 1.97× 2.33
Osijek to score exactly 1 34.1% 32.6% 31.8% 1.03× 3.06
Osijek to score exactly 2 11.2% 14.3% 29.4% 0.49× 6.99
Osijek to score 3+ 2.9% 6.5% 18.0% 0.36× 15.42
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb leading at HT 51.2% 47.5% 2.10
Draw at HT 38.2% 38.0% 2.63
Osijek leading at HT 10.6% 11.6% 8.61
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb -1: 2 52.3% 51.8% 1.93
Dinamo Zagreb -1: 1 26.1% 26.6% 3.76
Dinamo Zagreb -1: X 21.6% 23.6% 4.23
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (0:1) 93.0% 86.8% 52.6% 1.65× 1.15
Draw (0:1) 4.9% 6.2% 20.4% 0.30× 16.17
Osijek (0:1) 2.1% 6.0% 27.5% 0.22× 16.76
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (0:2) 97.9% 93.8% 72.5% 1.29× 1.07
Draw (0:2) 1.7% 3.8% 18.0% 0.21× 26.51
Osijek (0:2) 0.4% 3.8% 10.0% 0.38× 26.58
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (0:3) 99.6% 96.6% 90.0% 1.07× 1.04
Osijek (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 3.8% 0.62× 42.40
Draw (0:3) 0.3% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 42.39
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 96.2% 1.02× 1.02
Osijek (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.86× 81.96
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 2.8% 0.43× 81.95
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (1:0) 52.3% 53.3% 19.0% 2.81× 1.88
Osijek (1:0) 26.1% 25.1% 73.0% 0.34× 3.98
Draw (1:0) 21.6% 21.7% 8.5% 2.55× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek (2:0) 47.7% 47.5% 81.0% 0.59× 2.11
Dinamo Zagreb (2:0) 30.1% 31.4% 6.6% 4.72× 3.19
Draw (2:0) 22.2% 18.9% 12.8% 1.48× 5.29
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.3% 48.2% 2.07
Halves equal 25.5% 26.5% 3.78
1st half highest scoring 25.2% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek to concede 90.6% 93.3% 66.4% 1.41× 1.07
Osijek clean sheet 9.4% 6.7% 33.6% 0.20× 14.84
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek to concede in 1st half 61.1% 64.0% 1.56
Osijek clean sheet in 1st half 38.9% 36.0% 2.78
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek to concede in 2nd half 75.7% 82.2% 1.22
Osijek clean sheet in 2nd half 24.3% 17.8% 5.62
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek under 3.5 goals 99.5% 96.3% 91.5% 1.05× 1.04
Osijek under 2.5 goals 97.1% 96.3% 82.0% 1.17× 1.04
Osijek under 1.5 goals 85.9% 87.2% 53.1% 1.64× 1.15
Osijek under 0.5 goals 51.8% 52.8% 21.8% 2.42× 1.90
Osijek over 0.5 goals 48.2% 47.2% 78.2% 0.60× 2.12
Osijek over 1.5 goals 14.1% 12.8% 46.9% 0.27× 7.80
Osijek over 2.5 goals 2.9% 3.7% 18.0% 0.21× 26.97
Osijek over 3.5 goals 0.5% 3.7% 8.5% 0.43× 27.07
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek under 1.5 in 1st half 96.7% 97.4% 1.03
Osijek under 0.5 in 1st half 75.4% 77.0% 1.30
Osijek over 0.5 in 1st half 24.6% 23.0% 4.34
Osijek over 1.5 in 1st half 3.3% 2.6% 38.71
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek scores equally in both 57.5% 57.1% 1.75
Osijek scores more in 2nd half 24.7% 21.6% 4.63
Osijek scores more in 1st half 17.8% 14.4% 6.95
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb (home no bet) 79.5% 79.1% 50.9% 1.55× 1.26
Draw (home no bet) 20.5% 20.9% 49.1% 0.43× 4.79
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek even goals 63.4% 55.8% 57.8% 0.97× 1.79
Osijek odd goals 36.6% 44.2% 42.2% 1.05× 2.26
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.6% 28.9% 3.46
HT 0-1 27.4% 28.9% 3.47
HT 0-2 13.1% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-0 8.0% 7.1% 14.01
HT 1-1 8.1% 7.1% 14.01
Any other HT score 7.3% 7.1% 14.02
HT 1-2 3.7% 2.3% 43.43
HT 2-0 1.2% 2.3% 43.62
HT 2-1 1.1% 2.3% 43.62
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.67
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb at HT / Dinamo Zagreb at FT 47.6% 44.7% 2.24
Draw at HT / Dinamo Zagreb at FT 23.0% 21.8% 4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.4% 12.7% 7.90
Osijek at HT / Osijek at FT 3.8% 3.5% 28.78
Osijek at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.78
Osijek at HT / Dinamo Zagreb at FT 3.3% 3.5% 28.79
Dinamo Zagreb at HT / Draw at FT 3.1% 3.5% 28.80
Draw at HT / Osijek at FT 2.8% 3.5% 28.81
Dinamo Zagreb at HT / Osijek at FT 0.5% 3.5% 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb to score last 73.6% 72.8% 1.37
Osijek to score last 20.0% 13.9% 7.19
No goal scored 6.4% 7.5% 13.39
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.6% 92.6% 1.08
Dinamo Zagreb to lead by 1 at any time 82.3% 87.2% 1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 61.7% 61.3% 1.63
Dinamo Zagreb to lead by 2 at any time 57.4% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 33.5% 29.4% 3.40
Dinamo Zagreb to lead by 3 at any time 32.8% 29.4% 3.41
Osijek to lead by 1 at any time 22.4% 19.6% 5.11
Osijek to lead by 2 at any time 4.5% 1.7% 60.03
Osijek to lead by 3 at any time 0.7% 1.6% 63.73
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.1% 87.4% 87.2% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.5% 78.5% 79.1% 0.99× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.9% 72.3% 80.6% 0.90× 1.38
2-5 goals 73.3% 72.3% 76.3% 0.95× 1.38
2-4 goals 63.1% 63.1% 69.7% 0.91× 1.58
1-3 goals 58.0% 59.3% 61.1% 0.97× 1.69
3-6 goals 54.7% 53.4% 49.3% 1.08× 1.87
3-5 goals 49.5% 48.5% 46.4% 1.04× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.2% 48.4% 50.2% 0.96× 2.06
3-4 goals 39.3% 39.3% 39.8% 0.99× 2.55
1-2 goals 35.5% 39.3% 41.2% 0.95× 2.55
4-6 goals 32.3% 35.3% 29.4% 1.20× 2.83
4-5 goals 27.1% 30.6% 26.5% 1.15× 3.26
5-6 goals 15.3% 18.9% 10.0% 1.89× 5.31
7+ goals 3.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.09× 38.86
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb never behind 71.2% 76.7% 1.30
Osijek never behind 11.3% 12.6% 7.95
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.8% 50.9% 39.8% 1.28× 1.96
Even number of goals 53.2% 49.1% 60.2% 0.82× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.8% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.2% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.6% 92.2% 91.9% 1.00× 1.09
Under 5.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 94.8% 0.97× 1.09
Over 1.5 goals 81.9% 82.1% 81.0% 1.01× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 81.3% 82.1% 88.2% 0.93× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 64.4% 61.9% 68.7% 0.90× 1.61
Over 2.5 goals 58.1% 58.5% 51.2% 1.14× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 41.9% 41.5% 48.8% 0.85× 2.41
Over 3.5 goals 35.6% 38.1% 31.3% 1.22× 2.63
Over 4.5 goals 18.7% 17.9% 11.8% 1.51× 5.60
Under 1.5 goals 18.1% 17.9% 19.0% 0.94× 5.60
Over 5.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 5.2% 1.50× 12.81
Under 0.5 goals 6.4% 7.8% 8.1% 0.97× 12.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.4% 97.1% 97.6% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.5% 92.4% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 77.5% 75.8% 85.3% 0.89× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 76.2% 75.8% 73.0% 1.04× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.1% 52.4% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.9% 47.6% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 23.8% 24.2% 27.0% 0.89× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 22.5% 24.2% 14.7% 1.64× 4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.5% 7.6% 5.6% 1.37× 13.11
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.6% 2.9% 2.4% 1.17× 35.06
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.4% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.4% 71.2% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.0% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 35.0% 31.0% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.6% 28.8% 3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.6% 11.0% 9.09
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.8% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.3% 77.7% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 53.9% 53.4% 1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.1% 46.6% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.7% 22.3% 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.2% 17.2% 5.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek not to score in both halves 92.3% 90.3% 1.11
Dinamo Zagreb not to score in both halves 53.7% 55.9% 1.79
Dinamo Zagreb to score in both halves 46.3% 44.1% 2.27
Osijek to score in both halves 7.7% 9.7% 10.26
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Dinamo Zagreb scores 45.4% 50.4% 14.2% 3.54× 1.99
Both teams score 45.1% 50.4% 52.6% 0.96× 1.99
Neither team scores 6.4% 7.1% 8.1% 0.88× 14.03
Only Osijek scores 3.0% 4.6% 26.1% 0.18× 21.55
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.8% 22.4% 30.3% 0.74× 4.46
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.4% 20.4% 1.10× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 16.9% 17.6% 19.9% 0.88× 5.70
Exactly 1 goals 11.7% 12.0% 11.4% 1.06× 8.30
Exactly 5 goals 10.2% 12.0% 7.1% 1.69× 8.31
6 or more goals 8.5% 7.8% 5.2% 1.50× 12.83
Exactly 0 goals 6.4% 7.8% 8.1% 0.97× 12.84
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.5% 37.1% 2.70
No goals in 1st half 29.6% 28.6% 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 22.3% 21.7% 4.61
3+ goals in 1st half 12.6% 10.9% 9.18
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 53.9% 51.5% 1.94
1 goal in 2nd half 28.9% 29.8% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 17.2% 17.2% 5.81
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek not to win both halves 99.0% 97.3% 1.03
Dinamo Zagreb not to win both halves 67.3% 70.1% 1.43
Dinamo Zagreb to win both halves 32.7% 29.9% 3.35
Osijek to win both halves 1.0% 2.7% 36.86
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb to win either half 81.5% 82.8% 1.21
Osijek to win neither half 81.3% 82.8% 1.21
Osijek to win either half 18.7% 17.2% 5.81
Dinamo Zagreb to win neither half 18.5% 17.2% 5.82
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Osijek not to win to nil 97.0% 96.2% 73.9% 1.30× 1.04
Dinamo Zagreb not to win to nil 54.6% 54.6% 85.8% 0.64× 1.83
Dinamo Zagreb to win to nil 45.4% 45.4% 14.2% 3.19× 2.20
Osijek to win to nil 3.0% 3.8% 26.1% 0.15× 26.04
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+ 30.1% 27.5% 6.6% 4.15× 3.63
Dinamo Zagreb by 2 22.2% 24.2% 12.8% 1.89× 4.14
Dinamo Zagreb by 1 21.6% 24.2% 8.5% 2.83× 4.14
Draw 19.0% 16.9% 26.1% 0.65× 5.92
Osijek by 1 4.9% 2.8% 20.4% 0.14× 35.48
Osijek by 2 1.7% 2.8% 18.0% 0.16× 35.57
Osijek by 3+ 0.4% 2.8% 10.0% 0.28× 35.60
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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