Osogovo v Gorno Lisiche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · MKD-Second League · 2627
MKD-Second League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 0-1 16.2%
- 1-0 15.7%
- 1-1 10.8%
- 0-0 10.2%
- 1-2 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 33.5% | Under 2.5 | 66.5% |
| BTTS yes | 38.3% | BTTS no | 61.7% |
| Osogovo 1+ | 63.2% | Osogovo 2+ | 26.4% |
| Gorno Lisiche 1+ | 64.8% | Gorno Lisiche 2+ | 28.0% |
Expected goals 1.00 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Gorno Lisiche carry the stronger rating, 1522 Elo against 1486.
- Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
- Away from home Gorno Lisiche average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Osogovo have only 1 matches on record.
- Gorno Lisiche have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Gorno Lisiche have an estimated 38.6% win probability, against 36.3% for Osogovo and 25.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.00 for Osogovo and 1.04 for Gorno Lisiche.
Why Osogovo
At home Osogovo average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.0%. A combined 2.04 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.00 to 1.04.
Why Gorno Lisiche can win
Gorno Lisiche carry the stronger rating, 1522 Elo against 1486. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Gorno Lisiche average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Osogovo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Gorno Lisiche, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Osogovo: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Gorno Lisiche: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
Gorno Lisiche are the model's most likely outcome at 38.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 16.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.00–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 0.80–1.01 | 0-1 19% | 27% | 33% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.