Paderborn v Elversberg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 December 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.4%
- 1-2 8.8%
- 0-1 8.2%
- 2-1 8.0%
- 1-0 7.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | Under 2.5 | 43.9% |
| BTTS yes | 59.0% | BTTS no | 41.0% |
| Paderborn 1+ | 75.1% | Paderborn 2+ | 40.5% |
| Elversberg 1+ | 78.5% | Elversberg 2+ | 45.5% |
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Elversberg carry the stronger rating, 1591 Elo against 1500.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.90).
- Paderborn have only 7 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Elversberg have an estimated 41.0% win probability, against 34.5% for Paderborn and 24.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for Paderborn and 1.54 for Elversberg.
Why Paderborn
At home Paderborn average 1.38 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.54. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Elversberg can win
Elversberg carry the stronger rating, 1591 Elo against 1500.
Key players
Paderborn's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Laurin Curda (0.28), Steffen Tigges (0.24), Marvin Pieringer (0.23). Elversberg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lukas Petkov (0.41), David Mokwa (0.28), Maurice Krattenmacher (0.24).
Availability
1 of Paderborn's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Paderborn: 46% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Elversberg: 46% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 20.4 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Paderborn's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Elversberg are the model's most likely outcome at 41.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 75/100, data quality 70/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paderborn are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Elversberg are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.39–1.54 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.81–1.51 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.