Paderborn v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 16
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.74 – -0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paderborn win
41.4%
Draw
27.9%
Freiburg win
30.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paderborn are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWLDW last 7
scored 6
from 7.9 xG
conceded 9
from 13.2 xG
Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLWWWWDWL last 10
scored 22
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 14.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.28–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.20–1.03 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 45% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–1.01 | 1-1 13% | 38% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paderborn 0.74 xGFreiburg 1.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paderborn attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 0' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 0' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 1' |
 Paderborn |
Laurin Ulrich | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Laurin Curda |
| 1' |
Paderborn |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tjark Scheller |
| 4' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 16' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jordy Makengo |
| 17' |
Paderborn |
Rayan Philippe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raphael Obermair |
| 19' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 25' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 25' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Freiburg |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Paderborn |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Philippe |
| 36' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Paderborn |
Steffen Tigges | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Laurin Ulrich |
| 53' |
Paderborn |
Steffen Tigges | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Paderborn |
Laurin Ulrich | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Paderborn |
Mattes Hansen | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Paderborn |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Laurin Ulrich |
| 63' |
Paderborn |
Laurin Ulrich | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Laurin Curda |
| 65' |
Paderborn |
Steffen Tigges | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 76' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 78' |
Paderborn |
Oliver Batista Meier | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Paderborn |
Santiago Castañeda | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattes Hansen |
| 93' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Treu |
| 94' |
Paderborn |
Stefano Marino | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Steffen Tigges |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.72 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.49 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| Yannick Engelhardt DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Derry Scherhant AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Lukas Kübler Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Berkay Yilmaz Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keisuke Goto Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paderborn
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Castañeda MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Mattes Hansen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Raphael Obermair DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Nahuel Nicolas Noll GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tjark Scheller DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Laurin Curda DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| Gabriel Vidovic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jano ter Horst DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Laurin Ulrich MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| Rayan Philippe FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Steffen Tigges Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Oliver Batista Meier Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Marino Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jonah Sticker Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Niklas Mohr Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |