Paderborn v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Paderborn

1–0

1.36 – 0.42 xG

Hamburger SV

Shots

16 – 9

On target

6 – 1

Shots in box

9 – 3

xG per shot

0.09 – 0.05

Set-piece xG

0.52 – 0.30

Goals − xG

-0.36 – -0.42

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 24 Oct, 10:57 · 3h before kick-off

Paderborn win

41.4%

Draw

27.8%

Hamburger SV win

30.8%

412831

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
1-0 12.2%
0-1 10.1%
0-0 9.5%
2-1 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.8%	Under 2.5	58.2%
BTTS yes	47.5%	BTTS no	52.5%
Paderborn 1+	72.4%	Paderborn 2+	36.8%
Hamburger SV 1+	65.7%	Hamburger SV 2+	29.0%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Paderborn have created 1.09 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 1.99.
At home Paderborn average 1.39 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hamburger SV were missing 0.68 expected goal involvements a match against 0.31.

Risk factors

Paderborn have only 6 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paderborn have an estimated 41.4% win probability, against 30.8% for Hamburger SV and 27.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.29 for Paderborn and 1.07 for Hamburger SV.

Why Paderborn

Paderborn have created 1.09 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 1.99. At home Paderborn average 1.39 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Hamburger SV were missing 0.68 expected goal involvements a match against 0.31.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.8%. A combined 2.35 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.29 to 1.07. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Hamburger SV can win

Hamburger SV have created 1.29 xG a match over their last five while Paderborn have allowed 2.13. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Hamburger SV average 1.08 xG a match.

Key players

Paderborn's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Laurin Curda (0.29), Marvin Pieringer (0.26), Stefano Marino (0.24). Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fábio Vieira (0.34), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.23), Albert Grønbæk (0.21).

Availability

1 of Paderborn's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Paderborn: 46% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Hamburger SV: 38% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces. Paderborn's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Paderborn are the model's most likely outcome at 41.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Paderborn are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLLWLDW last 7 scored 6 from 7.9 xG conceded 9 from 13.2 xG

Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLLLWWWL last 10 scored 12 from 11.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412831	1.29–1.07	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	442532	1.54–1.28	1-1 12%	53%	57%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	442531	1.54–1.28	1-1 12%	53%	57%	Home ✓
deep	442532	1.54–1.28	1-1 12%	53%	57%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to win	43.5%	42.9%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33
Hamburger SV to win	31.5%	30.4%	33.4%	0.91×	3.29
Draw	24.9%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn & not both score	21.9%	21.8%	19.9%	1.10×	4.59
Paderborn & both teams score	21.6%	21.8%	22.3%	0.98×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.57
Hamburger SV & both teams score	16.1%	18.0%	18.4%	0.98×	5.57
Hamburger SV & not both score	15.4%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.57
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.3%	5.8%	1.43×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn & over 1.5	34.3%	30.8%	35.8%	0.86×	3.25
Paderborn & under 3.5	29.0%	26.1%	21.9%	1.19×	3.84
Paderborn & over 2.5	27.2%	26.1%	29.9%	0.87×	3.84
Hamburger SV & over 1.5	23.9%	21.6%	27.5%	0.78×	4.63
Hamburger SV & under 3.5	22.0%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.63
Hamburger SV & over 2.5	19.0%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Paderborn & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	12.3%	1.47×	5.56
Paderborn & over 3.5	14.5%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Hamburger SV & under 2.5	12.5%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Hamburger SV & over 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.63
Paderborn & under 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Hamburger SV & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	5.8%	1.36×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (1UP)	59.9%	58.2%	60.1%	0.97×	1.72
Hamburger SV (1UP)	49.5%	44.1%	52.2%	0.85×	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (2UP)	43.5%	47.2%	45.4%	1.04×	2.12
Hamburger SV (2UP)	31.5%	30.4%	36.4%	0.83×	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to win 2nd half	36.3%	36.1%	37.5%	0.96×	2.77
2nd half drawn	35.3%	36.1%	33.6%	1.07×	2.77
Hamburger SV to win 2nd half	28.5%	25.8%	29.1%	0.89×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	84.4%	79.5%	1.06×	1.19
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.8%	52.6%	56.5%	0.93×	1.90
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.2%	47.4%	43.5%	1.09×	2.11
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	15.6%	20.5%	0.76×	6.41

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.5%	75.5%	74.4%	1.02×	1.32
Paderborn over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.9%	58.0%	63.1%	0.92×	1.72
Paderborn under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.1%	42.0%	36.9%	1.14×	2.38
Paderborn over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.5%	24.5%	25.6%	0.95×	4.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (+2.5)	91.3%	92.1%	88.0%	1.05×	1.09
Hamburger SV (+1.5)	78.2%	78.5%	75.4%	1.04×	1.27
Paderborn (+0.5)	68.5%	68.7%	66.6%	1.03×	1.46
Hamburger SV (+0.5)	56.5%	57.0%	57.9%	0.98×	1.75
Paderborn (-0.5)	43.5%	43.0%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33
Hamburger SV (-0.5)	31.5%	31.3%	33.4%	0.94×	3.19
Paderborn (-1.5)	21.8%	21.5%	24.6%	0.88×	4.65
Paderborn (-2.5)	8.7%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede	78.6%	78.8%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
Hamburger SV clean sheet	21.4%	21.2%	20.8%	1.02×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half	50.8%	50.5%	48.1%	1.05×	1.98
Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half	49.2%	49.5%	51.9%	0.95×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half	57.9%	57.4%	63.1%	0.91×	1.74
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half	42.1%	42.6%	36.9%	1.15×	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 6.5 corners	84.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Hamburger SV under 5.5 corners	74.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Hamburger SV over 2.5 corners	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Hamburger SV under 4.5 corners	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Hamburger SV over 3.5 corners	55.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Hamburger SV under 3.5 corners	44.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Hamburger SV over 4.5 corners	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Hamburger SV under 2.5 corners	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Hamburger SV over 5.5 corners	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Hamburger SV over 6.5 corners	15.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals	95.9%	97.5%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals	86.3%	87.8%	79.2%	1.11×	1.14
Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals	72.1%	71.9%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals	63.5%	63.2%	57.2%	1.10×	1.58
Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals	36.5%	36.8%	42.8%	0.86×	2.72
Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals	27.9%	28.1%	25.6%	1.10×	3.56
Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals	13.7%	12.2%	20.8%	0.59×	8.19
Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals	4.1%	2.5%	7.3%	0.34×	39.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.4%	85.8%	1.04×	1.12
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half	57.9%	62.0%	54.4%	1.14×	1.61
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half	42.1%	38.0%	45.6%	0.83×	2.63
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.6%	14.2%	0.74×	9.44

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV scores equally in both	40.2%	43.3%	39.6%	1.10×	2.31
Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half	35.6%	37.3%	36.4%	1.02×	2.68
Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half	24.2%	22.0%	24.1%	0.91×	4.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (away no bet)	63.6%	61.9%	63.0%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.4%	38.1%	37.0%	1.03×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV even goals	53.9%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Hamburger SV odd goals	46.1%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.6%	82.8%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.4%	17.2%	24.7%	0.70×	5.81

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.6%	68.3%	72.3%	0.95×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.4%	31.7%	27.7%	1.14×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.3%	55.2%	66.4%	0.83×	1.81
Paderborn to score 2+ in a row	36.8%	36.6%	42.6%	0.86×	2.73
Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row	27.4%	25.2%	34.3%	0.73×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.5%	19.6%	29.2%	0.67×	5.11
Paderborn to score 3+ in a row	13.0%	12.1%	17.8%	0.68×	8.29
Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row	7.8%	5.6%	12.3%	0.45×	17.92

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn corners (+3.5)	91.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paderborn corners (+2.5)	86.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Paderborn corners (+1.5)	79.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Hamburger SV corners (+3.5)	70.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Hamburger SV corners (+2.5)	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Hamburger SV corners (+1.5)	50.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Paderborn corners (-1.5)	49.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Paderborn corners (-2.5)	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Paderborn corners (-3.5)	29.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Hamburger SV corners (-1.5)	20.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Hamburger SV corners (-2.5)	13.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Hamburger SV corners (-3.5)	8.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	31.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	31.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	23.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.72
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.50
1-0	9.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
0-1	7.6%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.50
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
2-0	7.1%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.51
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
2-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
3-0	3.7%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.30
3-1	4.7%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.32
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	3.82×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.30
0-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.32
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (2nd half DNB)	56.0%	59.4%	56.3%	1.06×	1.68
Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB)	44.0%	40.6%	43.7%	0.93×	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn leading at HT (DNB)	57.0%	57.3%	55.6%	1.03×	1.75
Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB)	43.0%	42.7%	44.4%	0.96×	2.34

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn or Hamburger SV (12)	75.1%	75.6%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Paderborn or draw (1X)	68.5%	69.6%	66.6%	1.04×	1.44
Hamburger SV or draw (X2)	56.5%	57.1%	57.9%	0.98×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn or draw at HT	74.8%	75.2%	70.6%	1.06×	1.33
Hamburger SV or draw at HT	66.6%	66.6%	63.3%	1.05×	1.50
Paderborn or Hamburger SV at HT	58.6%	57.2%	66.0%	0.87×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn or draw (1UP)	68.5%	76.3%	73.8%	1.03×	1.31
Hamburger SV or draw (1UP)	56.5%	63.0%	64.6%	0.97×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn or draw in 2nd half	71.5%	74.2%	70.9%	1.05×	1.35
Paderborn or Hamburger SV in 2nd half	64.7%	63.9%	66.4%	0.96×	1.56
Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half	63.7%	63.9%	62.5%	1.02×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.0%	61.4%	54.0%	1.14×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.0%	38.6%	46.0%	0.84×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (DNB)	58.0%	58.1%	55.8%	1.04×	1.72
Hamburger SV (DNB)	42.0%	41.9%	44.2%	0.95×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to score first	51.5%	53.3%	51.1%	1.04×	1.88
Hamburger SV to score first	42.6%	41.7%	43.2%	0.97×	2.40
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.7%	55.0%	59.4%	0.93×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.3%	45.0%	40.6%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.9%	41.6%	50.2%	0.83×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	34.8%	34.6%	28.0%	1.23×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	9.4%	1.31×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	12.7%	0.65×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.4%	82.6%	79.3%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.6%	17.4%	20.7%	0.84×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.0%	67.4%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.0%	32.6%	34.9%	0.93×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.5%	59.9%	51.3%	1.17×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.8%	21.1%	28.3%	0.75×	4.73
Both score 1st half only	14.5%	10.7%	13.9%	0.77×	9.33
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.8%	6.7%	1.00×	14.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.3%	81.3%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.7%	18.7%	20.5%	0.91×	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.2%	57.3%	67.5%	0.85×	1.75
A half without a goal	43.8%	42.7%	32.5%	1.31×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	38.3%	1.23×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.7%	26.6%	39.7%	0.67×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.8%	22.9%	18.0%	1.27×	4.37
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	4.3%	0.42×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.9%	31.7%	1.13×	2.78
Hamburger SV to score exactly 0	27.9%	27.4%	25.6%	1.07×	3.65
Hamburger SV to score exactly 2	22.7%	22.3%	22.2%	1.01×	4.48
Hamburger SV to score 3+	13.7%	12.9%	20.8%	0.62×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to score exactly 1	33.0%	32.6%	28.7%	1.13×	3.07
Paderborn to score exactly 2	25.4%	26.5%	23.2%	1.14×	3.77
Paderborn to score exactly 0	21.4%	23.3%	20.8%	1.12×	4.29
Paderborn to score 3+	20.2%	23.3%	27.5%	0.85×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.4%	42.8%	34.0%	1.26×	2.33
Paderborn leading at HT	33.4%	33.4%	36.7%	0.91×	3.00
Hamburger SV leading at HT	25.2%	24.8%	29.4%	0.84×	4.03

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn -1: 2	56.5%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Paderborn -1: 1	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Paderborn -1: X	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:1)	56.5%	55.8%	57.9%	0.96×	1.79
Paderborn (0:1)	21.8%	24.2%	24.6%	0.99×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	21.8%	24.2%	17.7%	1.37×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:2)	78.2%	79.4%	75.4%	1.05×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.1%	11.0%	12.7%	0.86×	9.09
Paderborn (0:2)	8.7%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:3)	91.3%	92.7%	88.0%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.8%	5.8%	4.9%	1.17×	17.24
Paderborn (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:4)	97.2%	98.1%	92.8%	1.06×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	4.9%	0.25×	81.87
Paderborn (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.02

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (1:0)	68.5%	70.1%	66.6%	1.05×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.0%	17.1%	16.6%	1.03×	5.85
Hamburger SV (1:0)	13.5%	12.7%	16.9%	0.75×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn (2:0)	86.5%	88.5%	83.1%	1.06×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.9%	6.4%	9.9%	0.65×	15.67
Hamburger SV (2:0)	4.6%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	43.55

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.0%	48.7%	47.4%	1.03×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	29.3%	26.2%	25.9%	1.01×	3.81
Halves equal	24.7%	24.4%	26.8%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to concede	72.1%	73.2%	74.4%	0.98×	1.37
Paderborn clean sheet	27.9%	26.8%	25.6%	1.05×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn clean sheet in 1st half	57.9%	62.0%	54.4%	1.14×	1.61
Paderborn to concede in 1st half	42.1%	38.0%	45.6%	0.83×	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to concede in 2nd half	51.8%	52.7%	56.5%	0.93×	1.90
Paderborn clean sheet in 2nd half	48.2%	47.3%	43.5%	1.09×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn over 2.5 corners	87.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Paderborn over 3.5 corners	75.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Paderborn under 6.5 corners	64.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Paderborn over 4.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Paderborn under 5.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Paderborn over 5.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Paderborn under 4.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Paderborn over 6.5 corners	35.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Paderborn under 3.5 corners	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Paderborn under 2.5 corners	12.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn under 3.5 goals	92.9%	92.2%	88.3%	1.04×	1.08
Paderborn under 2.5 goals	79.8%	77.7%	72.5%	1.07×	1.29
Paderborn over 0.5 goals	78.6%	77.7%	79.2%	0.98×	1.29
Paderborn under 1.5 goals	54.4%	53.2%	49.4%	1.08×	1.88
Paderborn over 1.5 goals	45.6%	46.8%	50.6%	0.92×	2.14
Paderborn under 0.5 goals	21.4%	22.3%	20.8%	1.07×	4.49
Paderborn over 2.5 goals	20.2%	22.3%	27.5%	0.81×	4.49
Paderborn over 3.5 goals	7.1%	7.8%	11.7%	0.66×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn under 1.5 in 1st half	85.2%	90.1%	80.5%	1.12×	1.11
Paderborn under 0.5 in 1st half	50.8%	50.3%	48.1%	1.04×	1.99
Paderborn over 0.5 in 1st half	49.2%	49.7%	51.9%	0.96×	2.01
Paderborn over 1.5 in 1st half	14.8%	9.9%	19.5%	0.51×	10.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn scores more in 2nd half	37.5%	37.9%	38.2%	0.99×	2.64
Paderborn scores equally in both	35.9%	37.9%	36.7%	1.03×	2.64
Paderborn scores more in 1st half	26.6%	27.8%	25.2%	1.10×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (home no bet)	55.8%	56.4%	57.5%	0.98×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.2%	43.6%	42.5%	1.03×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn even goals	52.3%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Paderborn odd goals	47.7%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.4%	28.0%	23.1%	1.21×	3.57
HT 1-0	19.9%	18.6%	19.2%	0.97×	5.37
HT 0-1	16.1%	18.6%	16.6%	1.11×	5.39
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.09
HT 2-0	6.7%	6.9%	9.4%	0.73×	14.50
Any other HT score	4.9%	2.4%	6.9%	0.35×	41.96
HT 0-2	4.4%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	41.99
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	42.04
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.08
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	1.3%	1.76×	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn at HT / Paderborn at FT	26.0%	27.1%	28.2%	0.96×	3.69
Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	17.6%	16.7%	20.4%	0.82×	5.98
Draw at HT / Paderborn at FT	15.0%	16.7%	10.9%	1.53×	5.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.6%	12.7%	13.6%	0.93×	7.90
Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	11.8%	12.6%	9.7%	1.30×	7.91
Paderborn at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	5.2%	1.14×	16.68
Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.69
Hamburger SV at HT / Paderborn at FT	2.6%	3.5%	3.3%	1.06×	28.67
Paderborn at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	2.2%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to score last	51.5%	52.1%	49.9%	1.04×	1.92
Hamburger SV to score last	42.6%	40.0%	44.4%	0.90×	2.50
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Paderborn to lead by 1 at any time	59.9%	55.0%	60.1%	0.91×	1.82
Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time	49.5%	44.6%	52.2%	0.86×	2.24
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.6%	44.6%	55.6%	0.80×	2.24
Paderborn to lead by 2 at any time	28.4%	25.5%	33.0%	0.77×	3.92
Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	15.0%	23.4%	0.64×	6.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.1%	14.9%	25.5%	0.59×	6.69
Paderborn to lead by 3 at any time	10.9%	10.4%	15.7%	0.66×	9.59
Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.7%	9.9%	0.68×	14.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn most corners	60.8%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Hamburger SV most corners	29.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	82.9%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.5%	78.7%	72.0%	1.09×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	72.4%	77.8%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.5%	72.4%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.8%	63.3%	50.4%	1.26×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	59.9%	1.06×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.0%	53.2%	58.5%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.8%	48.5%	51.5%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	38.3%	1.26×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.5%	43.6%	31.6%	1.38×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	40.6%	0.97×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.7%	30.2%	39.7%	0.76×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.5%	24.5%	32.6%	0.75×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.0%	14.8%	18.1%	0.82×	6.75
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	4.3%	0.59×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn never behind	44.5%	48.6%	47.8%	1.02×	2.06
Hamburger SV never behind	34.2%	36.3%	39.9%	0.91×	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	45.7%	1.12×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	54.3%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	51.9%	53.1%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.5%	82.3%	77.7%	1.06×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	82.0%	0.94×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.8%	66.3%	56.1%	1.18×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.5%	52.5%	62.7%	0.84×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.5%	47.5%	37.3%	1.27×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.2%	33.7%	43.9%	0.77×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	18.0%	1.26×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.5%	17.7%	22.3%	0.79×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	5.8%	1.32×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	95.3%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.7%	92.4%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.6%	81.1%	71.6%	1.13×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.1%	72.4%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.8%	55.8%	45.9%	1.21×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.2%	44.2%	54.1%	0.82×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.9%	27.6%	22.3%	1.24×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.4%	18.9%	28.4%	0.67×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.3%	7.6%	12.8%	0.60×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	4.7%	0.60×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.5%	89.2%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	71.8%	76.9%	0.93×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.4%	58.6%	1.17×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.6%	41.4%	0.76×	3.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	28.2%	23.1%	1.22×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.5%	10.8%	15.4%	0.70×	9.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.7%	79.4%	84.7%	0.94×	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.4%	73.0%	1.09×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	53.2%	44.4%	1.20×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	46.8%	55.6%	0.84×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	20.6%	27.0%	0.76×	4.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.3%	20.6%	15.3%	1.34×	4.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to score in both halves	78.2%	78.4%	72.3%	1.09×	1.28
Paderborn not to score in both halves	71.5%	73.9%	64.2%	1.15×	1.35
Paderborn to score in both halves	28.5%	26.1%	35.8%	0.73×	3.83
Hamburger SV to score in both halves	21.8%	21.6%	27.7%	0.78×	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.7%	58.6%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Only Paderborn scores	21.9%	22.3%	19.9%	1.12×	4.49
Only Hamburger SV scores	15.4%	16.0%	15.1%	1.06×	6.25
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.1%	5.8%	1.22×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.7%	22.6%	19.5%	1.16×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.8%	17.5%	12.3%	1.42×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	17.5%	21.7%	0.80×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.7%	7.6%	11.4%	0.67×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	5.8%	1.30×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.4%	35.7%	1.05×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.4%	28.3%	23.1%	1.23×	3.53
2 goals in 1st half	22.0%	21.5%	26.1%	0.82×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	12.5%	10.7%	15.4%	0.69×	9.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.4%	45.2%	55.6%	0.81×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.4%	33.8%	29.2%	1.16×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	20.3%	22.7%	15.3%	1.48×	4.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to win both halves	92.8%	94.1%	90.9%	1.04×	1.06
Paderborn not to win both halves	87.9%	87.9%	84.0%	1.05×	1.14
Paderborn to win both halves	12.1%	12.1%	16.0%	0.75×	8.26
Hamburger SV to win both halves	7.2%	5.9%	9.1%	0.64×	17.00

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paderborn to win either half	57.6%	59.1%	58.2%	1.02×	1.69
Hamburger SV to win neither half	53.5%	54.3%	50.7%	1.07×	1.84
Hamburger SV to win either half	46.5%	45.7%	49.3%	0.93×	2.19
Paderborn to win neither half	42.4%	40.9%	41.8%	0.98×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to win to nil	84.6%	83.1%	84.9%	0.98×	1.20
Paderborn not to win to nil	78.1%	78.1%	80.1%	0.98×	1.28
Paderborn to win to nil	21.9%	21.9%	19.9%	1.10×	4.57
Hamburger SV to win to nil	15.4%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.9%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15
Paderborn by 1	21.8%	24.1%	17.7%	1.36×	4.15
Hamburger SV by 1	18.0%	17.1%	16.6%	1.03×	5.87
Paderborn by 2	13.1%	11.8%	12.7%	0.92×	8.51
Hamburger SV by 2	8.9%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.90
Paderborn by 3+	8.7%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.90
Hamburger SV by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	36.76

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Paderborn 1.36 xGHamburger SV 0.42 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paderborn attacking right Hamburger SV attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Paderborn	Laurin Ulrich	0.03	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Tjark Scheller
8'	Hamburger SV	Fábio Vieira	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Yussuf Poulsen
21'	Paderborn	Tjark Scheller	0.15	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Raphael Obermair
29'	Paderborn	Santiago Castañeda	0.05	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Jano ter Horst
37'	Hamburger SV	David Møller Wolfe	0.09	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Miro Muheim
46'	Paderborn	Santiago Castañeda	0.47	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Tom Baack
51'	Hamburger SV	Otto Stange	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Miro Muheim
53'	Paderborn	Steffen Tigges	0.08	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Raphael Obermair
58'	Hamburger SV	Terem Igobor Moffi	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Martin Adeline
63'	Hamburger SV	Bilal Nadir	0.09	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
64'	Paderborn	Santiago Castañeda	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Laurin Curda
67'	Paderborn	Marvin Pieringer	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Felix Götze
68'	Paderborn	Mattes Hansen	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Laurin Curda
71'	Paderborn	Raphael Obermair	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
71'	Paderborn	Santiago Castañeda	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Rayan Philippe
71'	Paderborn	Tom Baack	0.01	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
72'	Paderborn	Laurin Curda	0.07	From Corner	Left Foot	Shot On Post	Tjark Scheller
75'	Paderborn	Marvin Pieringer	0.04	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Raphael Obermair
81'	Paderborn	Raphael Obermair	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
85'	Hamburger SV	Zakaria El Ouahdi	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
87'	Paderborn	Rayan Philippe	0.03	Set Piece	Left Foot	Goal	Felix Götze
89'	Hamburger SV	Albert Grønbæk	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
91'	Hamburger SV	Sebastiaan Bornauw	0.06	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Albert Grønbæk
94'	Hamburger SV	Zakaria El Ouahdi	0.01	Set Piece	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
94'	Paderborn	Rayan Philippe	0.17	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—

Players

Hamburger SV

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
David Møller Wolfe DML	90	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.00
Zakaria El Ouahdi DMR	90	2	0	0.06	0.00	0.05
Sebastiaan Bornauw DC	90	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.03
Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Shafiq Nandja DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Martin Adeline MC	90	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.08
Warmed Omari DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
Otto Stange Sub	78	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02
Bilal Nadir MC	74	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.03
Miro Muheim MC	74	0	2	0.00	0.11	0.04
Yussuf Poulsen FW	49	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.03
Terem Igobor Moffi Sub	41	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.05
Albert Grønbæk Sub	16	1	1	0.04	0.06	0.04
Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub	16	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Fábio Vieira FW	12	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Sub	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Paderborn

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Santiago Castañeda MC	90	0	0	4	0	0.61	0.00	0.58
Tjark Scheller DC	90	0	0	1	2	0.15	0.10	0.57
Raphael Obermair DML	90	0	0	2	3	0.08	0.28	0.13
Laurin Curda DMR	90	0	0	1	2	0.07	0.07	0.12
Mattes Hansen DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.07
Nahuel Nicolas Noll GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Stefano Marino FW	82	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.07
Laurin Ulrich MC	73	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.57
Steffen Tigges FW	65	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.05
Jano ter Horst DC	65	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.05	0.52
Gabriel Vidovic MC	49	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tom Baack Sub	41	0	0	1	1	0.01	0.47	0.54
Marvin Pieringer Sub	25	0	0	2	0	0.09	0.00	0.05
Felix Götze Sub	25	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.08	0.07
Rayan Philippe Sub	17	1	0	2	1	0.20	0.05	0.17
Sven Michel Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.17

Paderborn v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Paderborn

Why the draw is live

Why Hamburger SV can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Hamburger SV

Paderborn

Cookies on betaider

Sport

Football sections

Preferences

Match