Padova v Cesena — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Padova

20:00 UTC

Cesena

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 1,305h before kick-off

Padova win

44.1%

model 42.0%

Draw

28.0%

model 29.9%

Cesena win

27.9%

model 28.1%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.2%
1-0 10.2%
0-0 10.0%
2-1 8.8%
2-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.6%	Under 2.5	55.4%
BTTS yes	51.0%	BTTS no	49.0%
Padova 1+	74.7%	Padova 2+	40.0%
Cesena 1+	66.2%	Cesena 2+	29.5%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

47/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Cesena over 2.5 corners

Away corners O/U

81.4% fair odds 1.23

moderate signal · 10347 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cesena not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 87%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1408.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Padova have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 27.9% for Cesena. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Padova and 1.08 for Cesena.

Why Padova

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1408. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Cesena can win

Nothing in the data singles out Cesena.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cesena, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cesena: 45% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Padova are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	423028	1.38–1.09	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452926	1.46–1.07	1-1 14%	46%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to win	44.6%	43.0%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Draw	29.1%	27.9%	31.9%	0.88×	3.58
Cesena to win	26.3%	27.9%	25.5%	1.09×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova & not both score	24.8%	21.8%	23.9%	0.91×	4.59
Padova & both teams score	19.7%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.7%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Cesena & not both score	13.8%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.54
Cesena & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54
Draw & not both score	9.4%	8.3%	9.1%	0.92×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova & over 1.5	34.4%	30.8%	31.8%	0.97×	3.25
Padova & under 3.5	31.8%	30.7%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Padova & over 2.5	25.9%	26.0%	24.4%	1.07×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	23.4%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.4%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Cesena & under 3.5	19.9%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.55
Padova & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	18.4%	0.98×	5.55
Cesena & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.55
Cesena & over 2.5	14.7%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Padova & over 3.5	12.7%	12.8%	11.0%	1.17×	7.79
Cesena & under 2.5	11.6%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Padova & under 1.5	10.2%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.62
Cesena & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Cesena & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (1UP)	59.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Cesena (1UP)	43.6%	38.7%	—	—	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2UP)	44.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Cesena (2UP)	26.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Padova to win 2nd half	36.6%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Cesena to win 2nd half	25.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Cesena under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Cesena over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Cesena over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	12.9%	—	—	7.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.7%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Padova over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Padova under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Padova over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.3%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (+2.5)	91.2%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Cesena (+1.5)	77.4%	78.5%	80.3%	0.98×	1.27
Padova (+0.5)	73.7%	73.7%	74.5%	0.99×	1.36
Cesena (+0.5)	55.4%	57.0%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Padova (-0.5)	44.6%	43.0%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Cesena (-0.5)	26.3%	26.3%	25.5%	1.03×	3.80
Padova (-1.5)	22.6%	21.5%	19.7%	1.09×	4.65
Padova (-2.5)	8.8%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to concede	76.8%	78.7%	77.7%	1.01×	1.27
Cesena clean sheet	23.2%	21.3%	22.3%	0.95×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena clean sheet in 1st half	53.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Cesena to concede in 1st half	46.6%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to concede in 2nd half	56.5%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Cesena clean sheet in 2nd half	43.5%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena over 2.5 corners	81.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Cesena under 6.5 corners	73.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Cesena over 3.5 corners	67.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Cesena under 5.5 corners	61.7%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Cesena over 4.5 corners	52.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Cesena under 4.5 corners	47.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cesena over 5.5 corners	38.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Cesena under 3.5 corners	32.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Cesena over 6.5 corners	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Cesena under 2.5 corners	18.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 3.5 goals	97.6%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Cesena under 2.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Cesena under 1.5 goals	71.0%	71.8%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Cesena over 0.5 goals	65.7%	68.0%	67.1%	1.01×	1.47
Cesena under 0.5 goals	34.3%	32.0%	32.9%	0.97×	3.12
Cesena over 1.5 goals	29.0%	28.2%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Cesena over 2.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.05
Cesena over 3.5 goals	2.4%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 1.5 in 1st half	93.1%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
Cesena under 0.5 in 1st half	65.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Cesena over 0.5 in 1st half	34.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Cesena over 1.5 in 1st half	6.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.52

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena scores equally in both	44.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Cesena scores more in 2nd half	34.9%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Cesena scores more in 1st half	20.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (away no bet)	60.5%	61.9%	57.3%	1.08×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.5%	38.1%	42.7%	0.89×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena even goals	55.9%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Cesena odd goals	44.1%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.7%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.2%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.8%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.0%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Padova to score 2+ in a row	35.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Cesena to score 2+ in a row	21.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.5%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Padova to score 3+ in a row	12.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Cesena to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	5.5%	—	—	18.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena corners (+3.5)	85.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Padova corners (+3.5)	80.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Cesena corners (+2.5)	78.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Padova corners (+2.5)	72.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Cesena corners (+1.5)	69.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Padova corners (+1.5)	62.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Cesena corners (-1.5)	37.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Padova corners (-1.5)	30.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Cesena corners (-2.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Padova corners (-2.5)	21.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Cesena corners (-3.5)	19.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Padova corners (-3.5)	14.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	69.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	61.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	30.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	29.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.9%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
1-0	10.2%	11.5%	11.1%	1.04×	8.72
0-0	9.4%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
2-0	8.5%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.29
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.32
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.29
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2nd half DNB)	59.0%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Cesena (2nd half DNB)	41.0%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova leading at HT (DNB)	62.0%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Cesena leading at HT (DNB)	38.0%	33.6%	—	—	2.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw (1X)	73.7%	72.1%	74.5%	0.97×	1.39
Padova or Cesena (12)	70.9%	72.1%	68.1%	1.06×	1.39
Cesena or draw (X2)	55.4%	57.0%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw at HT	79.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Cesena or draw at HT	66.1%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Padova or Cesena at HT	54.7%	48.7%	—	—	2.05

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw (1UP)	73.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Cesena or draw (1UP)	55.4%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw in 2nd half	74.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Cesena or draw in 2nd half	63.4%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Padova or Cesena in 2nd half	62.1%	63.5%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	35.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (DNB)	62.9%	62.7%	62.6%	1.00×	1.60
Cesena (DNB)	37.1%	37.3%	37.4%	1.00×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score first	52.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Cesena to score first	38.3%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	9.4%	7.6%	—	—	13.10

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.9%	51.3%	53.9%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.1%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.7%	38.5%	37.9%	1.02×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	38.0%	38.5%	39.4%	0.98×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.9%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.6%	85.6%	86.1%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.4%	14.4%	13.9%	1.03×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.7%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.6%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Both score 1st half only	12.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.3%	4.9%	—	—	20.27

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.5%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.5%	16.6%	—	—	6.04

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	49.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.7%	26.6%	26.8%	0.99×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.4%	22.9%	23.5%	0.97×	4.36
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Cesena to score exactly 0	34.3%	33.8%	32.9%	1.03×	2.96
Cesena to score exactly 2	19.7%	19.5%	21.5%	0.91×	5.12
Cesena to score 3+	9.4%	8.6%	9.2%	0.93×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score exactly 1	33.9%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.07
Padova to score exactly 2	24.7%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Padova to score exactly 0	23.2%	23.3%	22.3%	1.05×	4.29
Padova to score 3+	18.1%	18.8%	16.2%	1.16×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.3%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Padova leading at HT	33.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Cesena leading at HT	20.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova -1: 2	55.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Padova -1: 1	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Padova -1: X	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (0:1)	55.4%	55.8%	57.3%	0.97×	1.79
Padova (0:1)	22.6%	24.2%	19.7%	1.23×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	21.9%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (0:2)	77.4%	79.4%	80.3%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.09
Padova (0:2)	8.8%	7.7%	6.7%	1.14×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (0:3)	91.2%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.0%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.27
Padova (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (0:4)	97.2%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.68
Padova (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.82

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (1:0)	73.7%	72.5%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.7%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Cesena (1:0)	10.6%	12.7%	10.0%	1.27×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2:0)	89.4%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.66
Cesena (2:0)	3.1%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.6%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	28.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede	65.7%	66.7%	67.1%	0.99×	1.50
Padova clean sheet	34.3%	33.4%	32.9%	1.01×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 1st half	65.2%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Padova to concede in 1st half	34.8%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 2nd half	52.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Padova to concede in 2nd half	47.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova over 2.5 corners	78.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Padova under 6.5 corners	78.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Padova under 5.5 corners	66.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Padova over 3.5 corners	63.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Padova under 4.5 corners	52.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Padova over 4.5 corners	47.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Padova under 3.5 corners	36.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Padova over 5.5 corners	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Padova over 6.5 corners	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Padova under 2.5 corners	21.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 3.5 goals	93.9%	92.2%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Padova under 2.5 goals	81.9%	82.2%	83.8%	0.98×	1.22
Padova over 0.5 goals	76.8%	77.8%	77.7%	1.00×	1.29
Padova under 1.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Padova over 1.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	42.0%	0.99×	2.42
Padova under 0.5 goals	23.2%	22.2%	22.3%	1.00×	4.50
Padova over 2.5 goals	18.1%	17.8%	16.2%	1.10×	5.62
Padova over 3.5 goals	6.1%	7.8%	4.1%	1.89×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 1st half	86.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Padova under 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Padova over 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
Padova over 1.5 in 1st half	13.1%	9.9%	—	—	10.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova scores more in 2nd half	37.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Padova scores equally in both	37.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Padova scores more in 1st half	25.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.6%	51.4%	55.5%	0.93×	1.94
Cesena (home no bet)	47.4%	48.6%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova even goals	52.7%	50.8%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Padova odd goals	47.3%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	21.6%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	9.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 2-0	6.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
Any other HT score	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova at HT / Padova at FT	26.5%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Padova at FT	15.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Cesena at HT / Cesena at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Cesena at FT	10.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Padova at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.53
Cesena at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Cesena at HT / Padova at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.94
Padova at HT / Cesena at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score last	52.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Cesena to score last	38.2%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	9.4%	7.6%	—	—	13.10

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.6%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Padova to lead by 1 at any time	59.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Cesena to lead by 1 at any time	43.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Padova to lead by 2 at any time	28.4%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Cesena to lead by 2 at any time	15.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.39
Padova to lead by 3 at any time	10.6%	10.6%	—	—	9.46
Cesena to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	1.6%	—	—	61.17

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena most corners	48.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Padova most corners	40.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.8%	72.3%	72.0%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.9%	68.8%	69.6%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.7%	68.8%	66.3%	1.04×	1.45
2-4 goals	62.1%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.9%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
1-2 goals	44.2%	43.6%	43.5%	1.00×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.0%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.1%	39.2%	38.7%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.4%	24.5%	23.5%	1.04×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.5%	24.4%	21.2%	1.15×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.8%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.24
7+ goals	1.5%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova never behind	46.9%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Cesena never behind	30.9%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.6%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	90.9%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.1%	77.3%	75.2%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	73.3%	72.5%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.6%	52.5%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	46.4%	47.5%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	26.7%	27.5%	26.8%	1.03×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	24.9%	22.7%	24.8%	0.92×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.4%	4.6%	3.7%	1.23×	21.80

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.3%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.9%	86.7%	89.3%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.3%	67.5%	67.9%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.5%	61.9%	64.0%	0.97×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.5%	38.1%	36.0%	1.06×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.7%	32.5%	32.1%	1.01×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.1%	13.3%	10.7%	1.25×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.7%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.0%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.69

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.6%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.1%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.9%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.4%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena not to score in both halves	83.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Padova not to score in both halves	73.7%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Padova to score in both halves	26.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
Cesena to score in both halves	16.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.9%	53.8%	53.9%	1.00×	1.86
Only Padova scores	24.8%	22.3%	23.9%	0.93×	4.49
Only Cesena scores	13.8%	11.0%	13.3%	0.83×	9.06
Neither team scores	9.4%	7.2%	9.1%	0.79×	13.99

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.0%	24.9%	25.8%	0.96×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.2%	17.5%	17.8%	0.98×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.6%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	9.4%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.9%	7.6%	5.4%	1.42×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.4%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.33

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	35.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	19.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.34
3+ goals in 1st half	9.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.9%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	23.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena not to win both halves	94.5%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Padova not to win both halves	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Padova to win both halves	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Cesena to win both halves	5.5%	5.8%	—	—	17.26

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to win neither half	59.2%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Padova to win either half	57.9%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Padova to win neither half	42.1%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Cesena to win either half	40.8%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena not to win to nil	86.2%	88.1%	86.7%	1.02×	1.14
Padova not to win to nil	75.2%	78.1%	76.1%	1.03×	1.28
Padova to win to nil	24.8%	21.9%	23.9%	0.92×	4.57
Cesena to win to nil	13.8%	11.9%	13.3%	0.89×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.1%	27.9%	31.9%	0.87×	3.59
Padova by 1	21.9%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Cesena by 1	15.7%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Padova by 2	13.9%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.50
Padova by 3+	8.8%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.90
Cesena by 2	7.5%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Cesena by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.87