Padova v Sampdoria — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Padova

20:00 UTC

Sampdoria

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 705h before kick-off

Padova win

39.8%

model 38.2%

Draw

31.2%

model 32.5%

Sampdoria win

29.0%

model 29.3%

403129

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.9%
0-0 13.2%
1-0 11.9%
0-1 9.9%
2-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	36.5%	Under 2.5	63.5%
BTTS yes	44.8%	BTTS no	55.2%
Padova 1+	68.8%	Padova 2+	32.5%
Sampdoria 1+	62.8%	Sampdoria 2+	26.1%

Expected goals 1.17 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

46/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

1-2 goals

Multi goal · usually 44%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sampdoria not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1399.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Padova have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.2% for the draw and 29.0% for Sampdoria. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.17 for Padova and 0.99 for Sampdoria.

Why Padova

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.2%. A combined 2.16 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.17 to 0.99. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Sampdoria can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sampdoria.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sampdoria, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sampdoria: 57% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Padova are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	383229	1.17–0.99	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	403525	1.08–0.79	0-0 17%	29%	38%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to win	40.3%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Draw	34.7%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29
Sampdoria to win	24.9%	24.5%	25.5%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova & not both score	28.4%	25.2%	23.9%	1.05×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Draw & not both score	16.9%	18.0%	9.1%	1.98×	5.57
Sampdoria & not both score	17.0%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.57
Padova & both teams score	12.0%	13.3%	18.9%	0.70×	7.54
Sampdoria & both teams score	7.9%	8.3%	12.3%	0.68×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova & under 3.5	34.4%	30.8%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	31.6%	30.7%	23.7%	1.30×	3.25
Draw & under 3.5	31.6%	30.7%	23.7%	1.30×	3.25
Padova & over 1.5	25.3%	26.0%	31.8%	0.82×	3.84
Padova & under 2.5	24.0%	21.6%	18.4%	1.17×	4.63
Sampdoria & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	19.9%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Draw & under 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	9.1%	1.98×	5.56
Padova & over 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.56
Sampdoria & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Padova & under 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	11.1%	1.62×	5.56
Sampdoria & over 1.5	14.3%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Sampdoria & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	6.8%	1.87×	7.79
Sampdoria & over 2.5	9.5%	7.9%	15.1%	0.53×	12.62
Padova & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	3.1%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82
Sampdoria & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	5.7%	0.84×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (1UP)	52.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sampdoria (1UP)	38.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2UP)	40.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sampdoria (2UP)	24.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	45.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Padova to win 2nd half	32.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Sampdoria to win 2nd half	22.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.7%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Sampdoria under 0.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Sampdoria over 0.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
Sampdoria over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.3%	8.3%	—	—	12.01

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Padova under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Padova over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Padova over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	11.2%	—	—	8.89

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (+2.5)	94.7%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Sampdoria (+1.5)	82.9%	82.6%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Padova (+0.5)	75.1%	78.5%	74.5%	1.05×	1.27
Sampdoria (+0.5)	59.7%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Padova (-0.5)	40.3%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Sampdoria (-0.5)	24.9%	21.5%	25.5%	0.84×	4.65
Padova (-1.5)	17.1%	17.4%	19.7%	0.89×	5.74
Padova (-2.5)	5.3%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria to concede	66.0%	72.3%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Sampdoria clean sheet	34.0%	27.7%	22.3%	1.24×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria clean sheet in 1st half	62.9%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Sampdoria to concede in 1st half	37.1%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria clean sheet in 2nd half	54.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Sampdoria to concede in 2nd half	46.0%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria over 2.5 corners	85.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sampdoria over 3.5 corners	72.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sampdoria under 6.5 corners	68.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sampdoria over 4.5 corners	58.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sampdoria under 5.5 corners	56.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sampdoria over 5.5 corners	43.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Sampdoria under 4.5 corners	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Sampdoria over 6.5 corners	31.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sampdoria under 3.5 corners	27.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sampdoria under 2.5 corners	15.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria under 3.5 goals	99.1%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Sampdoria under 2.5 goals	95.4%	97.5%	90.8%	1.07×	1.03
Sampdoria under 1.5 goals	81.2%	81.5%	69.4%	1.17×	1.23
Sampdoria over 0.5 goals	54.7%	53.6%	67.1%	0.80×	1.87
Sampdoria under 0.5 goals	45.3%	46.4%	32.9%	1.41×	2.15
Sampdoria over 1.5 goals	18.8%	18.5%	30.6%	0.60×	5.40
Sampdoria over 2.5 goals	4.6%	2.5%	9.2%	0.27×	39.73
Sampdoria over 3.5 goals	0.9%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria under 1.5 in 1st half	95.9%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Sampdoria under 0.5 in 1st half	72.8%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Sampdoria over 0.5 in 1st half	27.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
Sampdoria over 1.5 in 1st half	4.1%	4.0%	—	—	25.28

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria scores equally in both	52.4%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Sampdoria scores more in 2nd half	29.5%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Sampdoria scores more in 1st half	18.1%	18.1%	—	—	5.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (away no bet)	53.7%	51.7%	57.3%	0.90×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	46.3%	48.3%	42.7%	1.13×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria even goals	60.3%	59.1%	55.4%	1.07×	1.69
Sampdoria odd goals	39.7%	40.9%	44.6%	0.92×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.5%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.5%	7.9%	—	—	12.68

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	56.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Not both halves under 1.5	43.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	37.4%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Padova to score 2+ in a row	24.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Sampdoria to score 2+ in a row	14.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	9.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.97
Padova to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.21
Sampdoria to score 3+ in a row	3.0%	2.6%	—	—	39.14

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria corners (+3.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Sampdoria corners (+2.5)	84.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sampdoria corners (+1.5)	77.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Padova corners (+3.5)	73.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Padova corners (+2.5)	64.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Padova corners (+1.5)	54.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sampdoria corners (-1.5)	46.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Sampdoria corners (-2.5)	35.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Sampdoria corners (-3.5)	26.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Padova corners (-1.5)	23.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Padova corners (-2.5)	15.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Padova corners (-3.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	69.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	16.9%	13.8%	9.1%	1.52×	7.23
1-0	15.1%	13.8%	11.1%	1.25×	7.24
1-1	14.7%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-1	10.6%	11.5%	6.8%	1.68×	8.72
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.29
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
1-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-2	2.8%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	2.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.0%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	0.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2nd half DNB)	58.4%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Sampdoria (2nd half DNB)	41.6%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova leading at HT (DNB)	61.4%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Sampdoria leading at HT (DNB)	38.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw (1X)	75.1%	75.5%	74.5%	1.01×	1.32
Padova or Sampdoria (12)	65.3%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Sampdoria or draw (X2)	59.7%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw at HT	82.0%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Sampdoria or draw at HT	71.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Padova or Sampdoria at HT	46.7%	51.0%	—	—	1.96

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw (1UP)	75.1%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Sampdoria or draw (1UP)	59.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw in 2nd half	77.2%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Sampdoria or draw in 2nd half	68.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Padova or Sampdoria in 2nd half	54.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	72.9%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Neither half drawn	27.1%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (DNB)	61.8%	62.7%	62.6%	1.00×	1.60
Sampdoria (DNB)	38.2%	37.3%	37.4%	1.00×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score first	47.9%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Sampdoria to score first	35.1%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	16.9%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	62.3%	56.7%	46.1%	1.23×	1.77
Both teams to score	37.7%	43.4%	53.9%	0.80×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	56.4%	47.5%	37.9%	1.25×	2.11
Both score & over 2.5	23.0%	27.9%	39.4%	0.71×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	14.7%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	5.9%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.5%	89.0%	86.1%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	5.5%	11.0%	13.9%	0.79×	9.12

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.1%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.9%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.5%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Both score 2nd half only	16.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Both score 1st half only	8.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.67
Both score in both halves	1.8%	4.8%	—	—	20.82

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.6%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	10.4%	14.7%	—	—	6.81

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	63.2%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
A goal in each half	36.8%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.3%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	42.6%	42.2%	26.8%	1.58×	2.37
4-6 goals	11.7%	16.9%	23.5%	0.72×	5.91
7+ goals	0.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.53

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria to score exactly 0	45.3%	42.9%	32.9%	1.30×	2.33
Sampdoria to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Sampdoria to score exactly 2	14.2%	12.9%	21.5%	0.60×	7.75
Sampdoria to score 3+	4.6%	4.6%	9.2%	0.50×	21.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.5%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Padova to score exactly 0	34.0%	32.6%	22.3%	1.46×	3.07
Padova to score exactly 2	19.8%	18.8%	25.9%	0.73×	5.32
Padova to score 3+	9.6%	10.4%	16.2%	0.64×	9.64

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	53.3%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Padova leading at HT	28.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Sampdoria leading at HT	18.0%	16.0%	—	—	6.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova -1: 2	59.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Padova -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Padova -1: 1	17.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:1)	59.7%	55.9%	57.3%	0.98×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Padova (0:1)	17.1%	17.8%	19.7%	0.91×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:2)	82.9%	83.0%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.8%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.10
Padova (0:2)	5.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.08

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:3)	94.7%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.96
Padova (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.79
Padova (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.87

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (1:0)	75.1%	78.5%	74.5%	1.05×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	16.6%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Sampdoria (1:0)	8.3%	6.9%	10.0%	0.69×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2:0)	91.7%	94.0%	90.0%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.4%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.67
Sampdoria (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.81

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.2%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Halves equal	33.9%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
1st half highest scoring	24.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede	54.7%	53.2%	67.1%	0.79×	1.88
Padova clean sheet	45.3%	46.8%	32.9%	1.42×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 1st half	72.8%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Padova to concede in 1st half	27.2%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 2nd half	62.2%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Padova to concede in 2nd half	37.8%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 6.5 corners	83.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Padova over 2.5 corners	73.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Padova under 5.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Padova under 4.5 corners	59.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Padova over 3.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Padova under 3.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Padova over 4.5 corners	40.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Padova over 5.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Padova under 2.5 corners	26.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Padova over 6.5 corners	16.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 3.5 goals	97.6%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Padova under 2.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	83.8%	1.10×	1.09
Padova under 1.5 goals	70.6%	74.2%	58.0%	1.28×	1.35
Padova over 0.5 goals	66.0%	67.9%	77.7%	0.87×	1.47
Padova under 0.5 goals	34.0%	32.1%	22.3%	1.44×	3.12
Padova over 1.5 goals	29.4%	25.8%	42.0%	0.61×	3.88
Padova over 2.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	16.2%	0.48×	12.81
Padova over 3.5 goals	2.4%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.58

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Padova under 0.5 in 1st half	62.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Padova over 0.5 in 1st half	37.1%	35.5%	—	—	2.81
Padova over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	5.3%	—	—	18.94

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova scores equally in both	44.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Padova scores more in 2nd half	32.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Padova scores more in 1st half	22.8%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.2%	56.4%	55.5%	1.02×	1.77
Sampdoria (home no bet)	41.8%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova even goals	55.8%	55.3%	50.9%	1.09×	1.81
Padova odd goals	44.2%	44.7%	49.1%	0.91×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	46.1%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
HT 1-0	21.0%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	7.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
HT 2-0	4.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
Any other HT score	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.33
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.39

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	25.7%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Padova at HT / Padova at FT	22.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Padova at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Sampdoria at HT / Sampdoria at FT	12.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Sampdoria at FT	11.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Padova at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Sampdoria at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Sampdoria at HT / Padova at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.97
Padova at HT / Sampdoria at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.98

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score last	48.0%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Sampdoria to score last	35.0%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	16.9%	13.5%	—	—	7.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	83.1%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Padova to lead by 1 at any time	52.4%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Sampdoria to lead by 1 at any time	38.2%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	31.7%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Padova to lead by 2 at any time	20.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Sampdoria to lead by 2 at any time	11.1%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.99
Padova to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.10
Sampdoria to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	—	—	62.85

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria most corners	57.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Padova most corners	32.3%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.8%	83.4%	87.3%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	78.9%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.0%	72.3%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
2-6 goals	57.1%	59.1%	72.0%	0.82×	1.69
2-5 goals	56.1%	59.1%	69.6%	0.85×	1.69
1-2 goals	54.2%	53.2%	43.5%	1.22×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.2%	53.2%	64.4%	0.83×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.3%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.07
3-6 goals	28.6%	30.2%	46.3%	0.65×	3.31
3-5 goals	27.6%	30.2%	44.0%	0.69×	3.31
3-4 goals	24.7%	24.5%	38.7%	0.63×	4.09
4-6 goals	11.7%	14.8%	23.5%	0.63×	6.76
4-5 goals	10.8%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.76
5-6 goals	3.9%	2.6%	7.7%	0.33×	39.09
7+ goals	0.3%	2.5%	1.4%	1.86×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova never behind	44.8%	48.9%	—	—	2.05
Sampdoria never behind	30.7%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	45.7%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	54.3%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	61.0%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Odd goals in 1st half	39.0%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	56.7%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.3%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.8%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	91.0%	1.05×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	87.9%	87.6%	75.2%	1.16×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	83.1%	82.3%	90.9%	0.91×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	71.1%	72.5%	52.4%	1.38×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	57.4%	58.6%	73.2%	0.80×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	42.6%	41.4%	26.8%	1.54×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	28.9%	27.5%	47.6%	0.58×	3.63
Under 0.5 goals	16.9%	17.7%	9.1%	1.95×	5.65
Over 3.5 goals	12.1%	12.4%	24.8%	0.50×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	9.0%	0.51×	21.81
Over 5.5 goals	1.2%	4.6%	3.7%	1.22×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.7%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.7%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.5%	97.2%	89.3%	1.09×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	85.5%	86.7%	67.9%	1.28×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.6%	55.8%	36.0%	1.55×	1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.4%	44.2%	64.0%	0.69×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	14.5%	13.3%	32.1%	0.41×	7.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.5%	2.8%	10.7%	0.26×	35.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.3%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.64
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.3%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.5%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	81.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	53.9%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Under 0.5 in 1st half	46.1%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Over 1.5 in 1st half	18.7%	14.3%	—	—	6.97
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.5%	3.7%	—	—	27.37

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.2%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.1%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	9.8%	10.2%	—	—	9.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria not to score in both halves	89.7%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Padova not to score in both halves	82.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Padova to score in both halves	17.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Sampdoria to score in both halves	10.3%	14.2%	—	—	7.03

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	37.7%	39.9%	53.9%	0.74×	2.51
Only Padova scores	28.4%	26.1%	23.9%	1.09×	3.84
Neither team scores	16.9%	16.0%	9.1%	1.76×	6.24
Only Sampdoria scores	17.0%	16.0%	13.3%	1.20×	6.24

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.5%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	25.7%	24.9%	17.8%	1.40×	4.02
Exactly 0 goals	16.9%	17.5%	9.1%	1.92×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	16.8%	17.5%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	7.9%	7.6%	15.9%	0.48×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	2.9%	4.5%	5.4%	0.84×	22.35
6 or more goals	1.2%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	46.1%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
1 goal in 1st half	35.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	14.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
3+ goals in 1st half	4.5%	3.7%	—	—	27.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.6%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
No goals in 2nd half	34.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.3%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria not to win both halves	95.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Padova not to win both halves	90.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Padova to win both halves	9.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.98
Sampdoria to win both halves	4.3%	2.8%	—	—	35.46

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria to win neither half	63.5%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Padova to win either half	51.2%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Padova to win neither half	48.8%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Sampdoria to win either half	36.5%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sampdoria not to win to nil	83.0%	83.1%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
Padova not to win to nil	71.6%	75.3%	76.1%	0.99×	1.33
Padova to win to nil	28.4%	24.7%	23.9%	1.03×	4.05
Sampdoria to win to nil	17.0%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	34.7%	27.8%	31.9%	0.87×	3.60
Padova by 1	23.3%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Sampdoria by 1	16.6%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Padova by 2	11.8%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.51
Sampdoria by 2	6.4%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Padova by 3+	5.3%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.92
Sampdoria by 3+	1.9%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.91