Padova v Sudtirol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 27 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyPadova win
37.3%
model 36.2%
Draw
31.4%
model 33.0%
Sudtirol win
31.4%
model 30.9%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 15.2%
- 0-0 13.4%
- 1-0 11.4%
- 0-1 10.2%
- 2-1 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 36.4% | Under 2.5 | 63.6% |
| BTTS yes | 45.1% | BTTS no | 54.9% |
| Padova 1+ | 67.6% | Padova 2+ | 31.1% |
| Sudtirol 1+ | 64.1% | Sudtirol 2+ | 27.3% |
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
50/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
Positive factors
- Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1414.
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Padova have an estimated 37.3% win probability, against 31.4% for the draw and 31.4% for Sudtirol. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.13 for Padova and 1.02 for Sudtirol.
Why Padova
Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1414. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 31.4%. A combined 2.15 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.13 to 1.02. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Sudtirol can win
Nothing in the data singles out Sudtirol.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sudtirol, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sudtirol: 47% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Padova are the model's most likely outcome at 37.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 15.2%. Confidence 50/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.09–0.96 | 1-1 15% | 34% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova to win | 36.4% | 36.4% | 42.7% | 0.85× | 2.75 |
| Draw | 33.8% | 30.4% | 32.0% | 0.95× | 3.29 |
| Sudtirol to win | 29.7% | 27.9% | 25.4% | 1.10× | 3.59 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova & not both score | 23.6% | 21.9% | 24.0% | 0.91× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.2% | 17.9% | 23.0% | 0.78× | 5.58 |
| Sudtirol & not both score | 19.0% | 17.9% | 13.3% | 1.35× | 5.58 |
| Draw & not both score | 14.6% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 1.45× | 7.54 |
| Padova & both teams score | 12.8% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 0.71× | 7.54 |
| Sudtirol & both teams score | 10.7% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 1.08× | 7.55 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova & under 3.5 | 30.0% | 30.8% | 32.0% | 0.96× | 3.24 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 29.9% | 26.0% | 23.8% | 1.10× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 29.9% | 26.0% | 23.8% | 1.10× | 3.84 |
| Sudtirol & under 3.5 | 24.9% | 21.6% | 19.9% | 1.09× | 4.62 |
| Padova & over 1.5 | 24.2% | 21.6% | 31.7% | 0.68× | 4.62 |
| Padova & under 2.5 | 19.9% | 18.0% | 18.5% | 0.97× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.2% | 18.0% | 23.0% | 0.78× | 5.56 |
| Sudtirol & over 1.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 18.8% | 0.96× | 5.56 |
| Padova & over 2.5 | 16.5% | 18.0% | 24.3% | 0.74× | 5.56 |
| Sudtirol & under 2.5 | 16.5% | 18.0% | 10.5% | 1.71× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 1.41× | 7.77 |
| Sudtirol & over 2.5 | 13.2% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 0.86× | 7.77 |
| Padova & under 1.5 | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 1.16× | 7.77 |
| Sudtirol & under 1.5 | 10.6% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 1.90× | 7.77 |
| Padova & over 3.5 | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 0.73× | 12.70 |
| Sudtirol & over 3.5 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 0.85× | 20.92 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 0.57× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 0.57× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova (1UP) | 50.3% | 52.7% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Sudtirol (1UP) | 44.2% | 39.2% | — | — | 2.55 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova (2UP) | 36.4% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.69 |
| Sudtirol (2UP) | 29.7% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.97 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 43.2% | 41.3% | — | — | 2.42 |
| Padova to win 2nd half | 29.8% | 26.4% | — | — | 3.79 |
| Sudtirol to win 2nd half | 27.0% | 26.3% | — | — | 3.80 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol (+2.5) | 95.3% | 96.3% | 93.2% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Sudtirol (+1.5) | 84.6% | 82.4% | 80.5% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Padova (+0.5) | 70.3% | 73.6% | 74.6% | 0.99× | 1.36 |
| Sudtirol (+0.5) | 63.6% | 62.9% | 57.3% | 1.10× | 1.59 |
| Padova (-0.5) | 36.4% | 37.1% | 42.7% | 0.87× | 2.70 |
| Sudtirol (-0.5) | 29.7% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 1.04× | 3.80 |
| Padova (-1.5) | 15.4% | 17.6% | 19.5% | 0.90× | 5.69 |
| Padova (-2.5) | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 0.55× | 26.75 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol to concede | 66.3% | 72.4% | 77.7% | 0.93× | 1.38 |
| Sudtirol clean sheet | 33.7% | 27.6% | 22.3% | 1.24× | 3.63 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol clean sheet in 1st half | 62.6% | 64.6% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Sudtirol to concede in 1st half | 37.4% | 35.4% | — | — | 2.82 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol under 6.5 corners | 79.3% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Sudtirol over 2.5 corners | 77.6% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Sudtirol under 5.5 corners | 68.3% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Sudtirol over 3.5 corners | 61.8% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Sudtirol under 4.5 corners | 54.3% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Sudtirol over 4.5 corners | 45.7% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Sudtirol under 3.5 corners | 38.2% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Sudtirol over 5.5 corners | 31.7% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Sudtirol under 2.5 corners | 22.4% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Sudtirol over 6.5 corners | 20.7% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol under 3.5 goals | 98.3% | 97.6% | 98.2% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Sudtirol under 2.5 goals | 92.7% | 92.3% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Sudtirol under 1.5 goals | 75.0% | 76.2% | 69.3% | 1.10× | 1.31 |
| Sudtirol over 0.5 goals | 61.7% | 62.9% | 67.0% | 0.94× | 1.59 |
| Sudtirol under 0.5 goals | 38.3% | 37.1% | 33.0% | 1.12× | 2.70 |
| Sudtirol over 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 23.8% | 30.7% | 0.78× | 4.20 |
| Sudtirol over 2.5 goals | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 0.84× | 13.07 |
| Sudtirol over 3.5 goals | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.40× | 40.89 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol under 1.5 in 1st half | 94.3% | 94.2% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Sudtirol under 0.5 in 1st half | 68.1% | 68.3% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Sudtirol over 0.5 in 1st half | 31.9% | 31.7% | — | — | 3.16 |
| Sudtirol over 1.5 in 1st half | 5.7% | 5.8% | — | — | 17.23 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova (away no bet) | 51.8% | 51.2% | 57.1% | 0.90× | 1.95 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 48.2% | 48.8% | 42.9% | 1.14× | 2.05 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol even goals | 57.3% | 56.9% | 55.6% | 1.02× | 1.76 |
| Sudtirol odd goals | 42.7% | 43.1% | 44.4% | 0.97× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 92.9% | 92.6% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 7.1% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.49 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 51.5% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 48.5% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.00 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 41.2% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Padova to score 2+ in a row | 24.3% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.12 |
| Sudtirol to score 2+ in a row | 19.7% | 16.5% | — | — | 6.07 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 11.4% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.28 |
| Padova to score 3+ in a row | 6.7% | 5.6% | — | — | 17.81 |
| Sudtirol to score 3+ in a row | 4.7% | 2.7% | — | — | 37.54 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol corners (+3.5) | 85.7% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Padova corners (+3.5) | 82.9% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Sudtirol corners (+2.5) | 78.4% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Padova corners (+2.5) | 74.9% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Sudtirol corners (+1.5) | 69.0% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Padova corners (+1.5) | 64.9% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Sudtirol corners (-1.5) | 35.1% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Padova corners (-1.5) | 31.0% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Sudtirol corners (-2.5) | 25.1% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Padova corners (-2.5) | 21.6% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Sudtirol corners (-3.5) | 17.1% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Padova corners (-3.5) | 14.3% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 49.1% | 41.7% | — | — | 2.40 |
| 9-11 corners | 28.8% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 22.1% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.90 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 84.5% | 80.8% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.9% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 69.8% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 62.3% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 60.0% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 50.9% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 49.1% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40.0% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 37.7% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 30.2% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 22.1% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 15.5% | 19.2% | — | — | 5.20 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 15.2% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 0.93× | 7.28 |
| 0-0 | 14.6% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 1.25× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 1.03× | 8.74 |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 1.69× | 8.74 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 0.99× | 13.47 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.76× | 13.47 |
| 0-2 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.91× | 13.47 |
| 1-2 | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 1.01× | 13.47 |
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.76× | 58.51 |
| 0-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.28× | 58.52 |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.65× | 58.51 |
| 1-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.83× | 58.52 |
| 2-2 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 7.4% | 0.23× | 58.50 |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.14× | 58.52 |
| 2-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.65× | 58.52 |
| 3-0 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 0.43× | 58.51 |
| 3-1 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.51 |
| 3-2 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.68× | 58.52 |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.52× | 58.52 |
| 3-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.55× | 58.52 |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.52× | 58.52 |
| 4-1 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.28× | 58.52 |
| 4-2 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.71× | 58.52 |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.83× | 58.52 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.65× | 58.52 |
| Any other score | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.80× | 58.52 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova leading at HT (DNB) | 56.1% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Sudtirol leading at HT (DNB) | 43.9% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova or draw (1X) | 70.3% | 72.1% | 74.6% | 0.97× | 1.39 |
| Padova or Sudtirol (12) | 66.2% | 69.6% | 68.0% | 1.02× | 1.44 |
| Sudtirol or draw (X2) | 63.6% | 63.6% | 57.3% | 1.11× | 1.57 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova or draw at HT | 78.6% | 79.9% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Sudtirol or draw at HT | 72.7% | 74.6% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Padova or Sudtirol at HT | 48.7% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova or draw (1UP) | 70.3% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Sudtirol or draw (1UP) | 63.6% | 71.7% | — | — | 1.39 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova or draw in 2nd half | 73.0% | 73.7% | — | — | 1.36 |
| Sudtirol or draw in 2nd half | 70.2% | 73.6% | — | — | 1.36 |
| Padova or Sudtirol in 2nd half | 56.8% | 58.7% | — | — | 1.70 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 70.5% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Neither half drawn | 29.5% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova (DNB) | 55.1% | 58.2% | 62.7% | 0.93× | 1.72 |
| Sudtirol (DNB) | 44.9% | 41.8% | 37.3% | 1.12× | 2.39 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova to score first | 45.4% | 45.5% | — | — | 2.20 |
| Sudtirol to score first | 40.0% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
| No goal scored | 14.6% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.33 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 57.3% | 54.8% | 46.2% | 1.19× | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 45.2% | 53.8% | 0.84× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 51.1% | 47.0% | 37.9% | 1.24× | 2.13 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 27.5% | 33.6% | 39.2% | 0.86× | 2.98 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 15.2% | 21.7% | 14.8% | 1.47× | 4.61 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 1.00× | 11.96 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 92.6% | 89.1% | 86.0% | 1.04× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 7.4% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 0.78× | 9.18 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 79.2% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 20.9% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 69.3% | 62.9% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 18.4% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
| Both score 1st half only | 9.8% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.65 |
| Both score in both halves | 2.4% | 4.8% | — | — | 20.63 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 87.8% | 85.9% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.2% | 14.1% | — | — | 7.10 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 59.1% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| A goal in each half | 40.9% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.36 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 47.3% | 47.4% | 48.8% | 0.97× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 37.5% | 35.1% | 26.8% | 1.31× | 2.85 |
| 4-6 goals | 14.7% | 17.0% | 23.3% | 0.73× | 5.89 |
| 7+ goals | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.32× | 55.21 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol to score exactly 0 | 38.3% | 36.0% | 33.0% | 1.09× | 2.78 |
| Sudtirol to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 36.0% | 36.4% | 0.99× | 2.78 |
| Sudtirol to score exactly 2 | 17.6% | 19.5% | 21.7% | 0.90× | 5.12 |
| Sudtirol to score 3+ | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 0.93× | 11.81 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova to score exactly 1 | 36.7% | 35.6% | 35.9% | 0.99× | 2.81 |
| Padova to score exactly 0 | 33.7% | 32.7% | 22.3% | 1.47× | 3.06 |
| Padova to score exactly 2 | 20.0% | 18.9% | 26.0% | 0.73× | 5.29 |
| Padova to score 3+ | 9.7% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 0.64× | 9.69 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 51.3% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Padova leading at HT | 27.3% | 25.5% | — | — | 3.93 |
| Sudtirol leading at HT | 21.4% | 20.1% | — | — | 4.98 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova -1: 2 | 63.6% | 62.4% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Padova -1: X | 21.0% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
| Padova -1: 1 | 15.4% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol (0:1) | 63.6% | 61.4% | 57.3% | 1.07× | 1.63 |
| Draw (0:1) | 21.0% | 24.3% | 23.3% | 1.04× | 4.12 |
| Padova (0:1) | 15.4% | 17.8% | 19.5% | 0.91× | 5.63 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol (0:2) | 84.6% | 82.8% | 80.5% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Draw (0:2) | 10.7% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 0.85× | 9.12 |
| Padova (0:2) | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 0.56× | 26.45 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol (0:3) | 95.3% | 96.6% | 93.2% | 1.04× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 0.51× | 42.05 |
| Padova (0:3) | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.05× | 42.16 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol (0:4) | 98.8% | 98.1% | 97.7% | 1.00× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.87× | 83.51 |
| Padova (0:4) | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.19× | 83.59 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova (1:0) | 70.3% | 72.5% | 74.6% | 0.97× | 1.38 |
| Draw (1:0) | 18.3% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 1.09× | 5.87 |
| Sudtirol (1:0) | 11.4% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 1.30× | 7.81 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova (2:0) | 88.6% | 88.4% | 90.1% | 0.98× | 1.13 |
| Draw (2:0) | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 0.99× | 15.51 |
| Sudtirol (2:0) | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 0.64× | 44.31 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 42.5% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Halves equal | 32.4% | 30.0% | — | — | 3.34 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 25.1% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.78 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova to concede | 61.7% | 63.4% | 67.0% | 0.95× | 1.58 |
| Padova clean sheet | 38.3% | 36.6% | 33.0% | 1.11× | 2.73 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova clean sheet in 1st half | 68.1% | 68.6% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Padova to concede in 1st half | 31.9% | 31.4% | — | — | 3.19 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova under 6.5 corners | 81.8% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Padova over 2.5 corners | 75.4% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Padova under 5.5 corners | 71.3% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Padova over 3.5 corners | 58.8% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Padova under 4.5 corners | 57.5% | 57.5% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Padova over 4.5 corners | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Padova under 3.5 corners | 41.2% | 42.5% | — | — | 2.35 |
| Padova over 5.5 corners | 28.7% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Padova under 2.5 corners | 24.6% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Padova over 6.5 corners | 18.2% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova under 3.5 goals | 97.5% | 96.4% | 95.9% | 1.01× | 1.04 |
| Padova under 2.5 goals | 90.3% | 92.2% | 84.0% | 1.10× | 1.08 |
| Padova under 1.5 goals | 70.3% | 74.2% | 58.1% | 1.28× | 1.35 |
| Padova over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | 67.8% | 77.7% | 0.87× | 1.47 |
| Padova under 0.5 goals | 33.7% | 32.2% | 22.3% | 1.44× | 3.11 |
| Padova over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 25.8% | 41.9% | 0.62× | 3.88 |
| Padova over 2.5 goals | 9.7% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 0.48× | 12.90 |
| Padova over 3.5 goals | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 0.88× | 27.47 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.9% | 95.3% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Padova under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.6% | 64.4% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Padova over 0.5 in 1st half | 37.4% | 35.6% | — | — | 2.81 |
| Padova over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.1% | 4.7% | — | — | 21.27 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 53.2% | 51.6% | 55.8% | 0.93× | 1.94 |
| Sudtirol (home no bet) | 46.8% | 48.4% | 44.2% | 1.09× | 2.07 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova even goals | 55.7% | 55.4% | 51.1% | 1.09× | 1.80 |
| Padova odd goals | 44.3% | 44.6% | 48.9% | 0.91× | 2.24 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 42.9% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| HT 1-0 | 19.7% | 18.8% | — | — | 5.31 |
| HT 0-1 | 16.1% | 18.8% | — | — | 5.33 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.0% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.16 |
| HT 2-0 | 4.7% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.72 |
| HT 0-2 | 3.1% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.83 |
| Any other HT score | 1.9% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.93 |
| HT 2-1 | 1.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.94 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.5% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.96 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 44.05 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 24.0% | 21.8% | — | — | 4.59 |
| Padova at HT / Padova at FT | 20.5% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.61 |
| Sudtirol at HT / Sudtirol at FT | 15.3% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.95 |
| Draw at HT / Padova at FT | 14.4% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Sudtirol at FT | 12.9% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Padova at HT / Draw at FT | 5.3% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.65 |
| Sudtirol at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.81 |
| Padova at HT / Sudtirol at FT | 1.6% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.93 |
| Sudtirol at HT / Padova at FT | 1.5% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.93 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova to score last | 45.4% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Sudtirol to score last | 39.9% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| No goal scored | 14.6% | 10.1% | — | — | 9.89 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 85.4% | 90.2% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Padova to lead by 1 at any time | 50.3% | 50.6% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Sudtirol to lead by 1 at any time | 44.2% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.55 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 34.5% | 29.4% | — | — | 3.40 |
| Padova to lead by 2 at any time | 19.5% | 15.0% | — | — | 6.66 |
| Sudtirol to lead by 2 at any time | 15.1% | 14.9% | — | — | 6.70 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 9.7% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.12 |
| Padova to lead by 3 at any time | 5.7% | 6.5% | — | — | 15.32 |
| Sudtirol to lead by 3 at any time | 3.9% | 1.6% | — | — | 62.53 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol most corners | 46.4% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Padova most corners | 41.9% | 43.5% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Corners level | 11.7% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 83.5% | 83.5% | 87.2% | 0.96× | 1.20 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.6% | 78.6% | 82.1% | 0.96× | 1.27 |
| 1-3 goals | 70.2% | 72.4% | 66.5% | 1.09× | 1.38 |
| 2-6 goals | 62.0% | 63.4% | 72.0% | 0.88× | 1.58 |
| 2-5 goals | 60.6% | 63.4% | 69.6% | 0.91× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 56.8% | 59.2% | 64.5% | 0.92× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 51.7% | 53.2% | 43.6% | 1.22× | 1.88 |
| 2-3 goals | 47.3% | 48.7% | 48.8% | 1.00× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 33.1% | 35.4% | 46.2% | 0.77× | 2.83 |
| 3-5 goals | 31.8% | 35.4% | 43.8% | 0.81× | 2.83 |
| 3-4 goals | 27.9% | 30.2% | 38.7% | 0.78× | 3.31 |
| 4-6 goals | 14.7% | 14.9% | 23.3% | 0.64× | 6.72 |
| 4-5 goals | 13.3% | 14.9% | 20.9% | 0.71× | 6.72 |
| 5-6 goals | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 1.14× | 11.45 |
| 7+ goals | 0.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.84× | 39.50 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova never behind | 41.1% | 48.1% | — | — | 2.08 |
| Sudtirol never behind | 35.1% | 44.4% | — | — | 2.25 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 45.7% | 50.8% | 46.7% | 1.09× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 54.4% | 49.2% | 53.3% | 0.92× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 59.7% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 40.3% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.36 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 55.8% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 44.2% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.46 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 98.2% | 95.5% | 96.2% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 94.3% | 92.3% | 91.1% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 85.4% | 87.6% | 90.9% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 84.8% | 82.4% | 75.5% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66.3% | 66.2% | 52.6% | 1.26× | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | 61.7% | 73.2% | 0.84× | 1.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 38.3% | 26.8% | 1.43× | 2.61 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.7% | 33.8% | 47.4% | 0.71× | 2.96 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.2% | 17.6% | 24.5% | 0.72× | 5.68 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 14.6% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.35× | 8.09 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 0.87× | 12.95 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.20× | 22.26 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.5% | 97.3% | 98.6% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 98.1% | 97.3% | 96.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 93.7% | 92.5% | 89.5% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 81.4% | 81.1% | 68.2% | 1.19× | 1.23 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 52.7% | 51.8% | 36.1% | 1.44× | 1.93 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 47.3% | 48.2% | 63.9% | 0.75× | 2.07 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 18.6% | 18.9% | 31.8% | 0.60× | 5.28 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 0.71× | 13.28 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 0.69× | 36.36 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.95× | 36.41 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 94.5% | 92.9% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 78.7% | 78.9% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 57.1% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 42.9% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 21.3% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 5.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.16 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 88.0% | 85.3% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 69.2% | 67.2% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 65.8% | 66.9% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 34.2% | 33.1% | — | — | 3.03 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 30.8% | 32.8% | — | — | 3.05 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 12.0% | 14.7% | — | — | 6.81 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol not to score in both halves | 86.0% | 85.9% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Padova not to score in both halves | 82.7% | 84.4% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Padova to score in both halves | 17.3% | 15.6% | — | — | 6.41 |
| Sudtirol to score in both halves | 14.0% | 14.1% | — | — | 7.10 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 42.7% | 46.6% | 53.8% | 0.87× | 2.15 |
| Only Padova scores | 23.6% | 22.4% | 24.0% | 0.93× | 4.47 |
| Only Sudtirol scores | 19.0% | 16.1% | 13.3% | 1.21× | 6.21 |
| Neither team scores | 14.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 1.20× | 9.13 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 28.8% | 25.0% | 25.9% | 0.96× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 22.9% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 1.27× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 18.5% | 17.4% | 23.0% | 0.76× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 14.6% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 1.32× | 8.28 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 9.5% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 0.48× | 13.09 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 0.84× | 22.68 |
| 6 or more goals | 1.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.17× | 22.71 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 35.0% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 34.2% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 30.8% | 33.6% | — | — | 2.98 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol not to win both halves | 94.0% | 94.0% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Padova not to win both halves | 91.6% | 94.0% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Padova to win both halves | 8.4% | 6.1% | — | — | 16.53 |
| Sudtirol to win both halves | 6.0% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.71 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol to win neither half | 57.6% | 59.5% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Padova to win neither half | 51.3% | 54.9% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Padova to win either half | 48.7% | 45.1% | — | — | 2.22 |
| Sudtirol to win either half | 42.4% | 40.5% | — | — | 2.47 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol not to win to nil | 81.0% | 83.0% | 86.7% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| Padova not to win to nil | 76.4% | 78.0% | 76.0% | 1.03× | 1.28 |
| Padova to win to nil | 23.6% | 22.0% | 24.0% | 0.91× | 4.55 |
| Sudtirol to win to nil | 19.0% | 17.0% | 13.3% | 1.28× | 5.89 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 33.8% | 27.6% | 32.0% | 0.86× | 3.62 |
| Padova by 1 | 21.0% | 24.1% | 23.3% | 1.04× | 4.14 |
| Sudtirol by 1 | 18.3% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 1.08× | 5.90 |
| Padova by 2 | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 0.92× | 8.47 |
| Sudtirol by 2 | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 1.11× | 13.79 |
| Padova by 3+ | 4.7% | 2.7% | 6.8% | 0.40× | 36.98 |
| Sudtirol by 3+ | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 0.77× | 37.04 |