Padova v Sudtirol — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Padova

18:00 UTC

Sudtirol

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 31h before kick-off

Padova win

38.9%

model 35.9%

Draw

30.6%

model 32.5%

Sudtirol win

30.5%

model 31.6%

393131

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 15.0%
0-0 13.0%
1-0 11.3%
0-1 10.3%
2-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	37.0%	Under 2.5	63.0%
BTTS yes	45.4%	BTTS no	54.6%
Padova 1+	67.7%	Padova 2+	31.2%
Sudtirol 1+	64.8%	Sudtirol 2+	28.0%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

51/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

1-2 goals

Multi goal · usually 44%

52.2% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Sudtirol (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1414.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Padova have an estimated 38.9% win probability, against 30.6% for the draw and 30.5% for Sudtirol. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.13 for Padova and 1.04 for Sudtirol.

Why Padova

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1414. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.6%. A combined 2.17 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.13 to 1.04. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Sudtirol can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sudtirol.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sudtirol, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sudtirol: 47% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Padova are the model's most likely outcome at 38.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 15.0%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	363232	1.13–1.04	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	353431	1.06–0.97	1-1 15%	33%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to win	35.3%	36.3%	42.7%	0.85×	2.75
Draw	33.8%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29
Sudtirol to win	30.9%	30.4%	25.5%	1.19×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova & not both score	23.1%	21.8%	23.9%	0.91×	4.59
Sudtirol & not both score	20.0%	21.8%	13.3%	1.63×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Draw & not both score	14.8%	13.3%	9.1%	1.46×	7.54
Padova & both teams score	12.2%	13.3%	18.9%	0.70×	7.54
Sudtirol & both teams score	10.9%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & under 2.5	29.9%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	29.9%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Padova & under 3.5	29.4%	26.1%	31.9%	0.82×	3.84
Sudtirol & under 3.5	26.0%	26.0%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Padova & over 1.5	23.0%	21.6%	31.8%	0.68×	4.63
Padova & under 2.5	19.7%	18.0%	18.4%	0.98×	5.55
Sudtirol & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Sudtirol & under 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.55
Padova & over 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	14.8%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Sudtirol & over 2.5	13.5%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Padova & under 1.5	12.3%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Sudtirol & under 1.5	11.2%	12.8%	6.8%	1.87×	7.79
Padova & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Sudtirol & over 3.5	4.9%	4.8%	5.7%	0.84×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	3.9%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.9%	4.8%	8.3%	0.58×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (1UP)	49.1%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Sudtirol (1UP)	45.1%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2UP)	35.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Sudtirol (2UP)	30.9%	30.2%	—	—	3.32

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.4%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Padova to win 2nd half	28.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Sudtirol to win 2nd half	27.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.4%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.6%	12.8%	—	—	7.80

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Padova under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Padova over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Padova over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	11.2%	—	—	8.93

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (+2.5)	95.6%	96.3%	93.3%	1.03×	1.04
Sudtirol (+1.5)	85.5%	88.5%	80.3%	1.10×	1.13
Padova (+0.5)	69.1%	68.7%	74.5%	0.92×	1.46
Sudtirol (+0.5)	64.7%	63.0%	57.3%	1.10×	1.59
Padova (-0.5)	35.3%	37.0%	42.7%	0.87×	2.70
Sudtirol (-0.5)	30.9%	31.3%	25.5%	1.23×	3.19
Padova (-1.5)	14.5%	11.5%	19.7%	0.59×	8.66
Padova (-2.5)	4.4%	3.7%	6.7%	0.55×	27.06

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to concede	65.2%	72.2%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Sudtirol clean sheet	34.8%	27.8%	22.3%	1.25×	3.60

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol clean sheet in 1st half	63.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.54
Sudtirol to concede in 1st half	36.5%	35.3%	—	—	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol clean sheet in 2nd half	54.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Sudtirol to concede in 2nd half	45.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 6.5 corners	79.4%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Sudtirol over 2.5 corners	77.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Sudtirol under 5.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sudtirol over 3.5 corners	61.7%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Sudtirol under 4.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Sudtirol over 4.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sudtirol under 3.5 corners	38.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Sudtirol over 5.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sudtirol under 2.5 corners	22.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Sudtirol over 6.5 corners	20.6%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Sudtirol under 2.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Sudtirol under 1.5 goals	74.7%	71.9%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Sudtirol over 0.5 goals	62.1%	63.2%	67.1%	0.94×	1.58
Sudtirol under 0.5 goals	37.9%	36.8%	32.9%	1.12×	2.72
Sudtirol over 1.5 goals	25.3%	28.1%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Sudtirol over 2.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.07
Sudtirol over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 1st half	94.2%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 1st half	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.62

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol scores equally in both	47.0%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Sudtirol scores more in 2nd half	33.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Sudtirol scores more in 1st half	19.9%	18.2%	—	—	5.48

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (away no bet)	51.1%	51.7%	57.3%	0.90×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	48.9%	48.3%	42.7%	1.13×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol even goals	57.2%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Sudtirol odd goals	42.8%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.2%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.8%	8.2%	—	—	12.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	52.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Not both halves under 1.5	47.7%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	40.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Padova to score 2+ in a row	23.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Sudtirol to score 2+ in a row	20.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Padova to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.5%	—	—	18.27
Sudtirol to score 3+ in a row	4.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.01

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol corners (+3.5)	85.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Padova corners (+3.5)	83.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sudtirol corners (+2.5)	78.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Padova corners (+2.5)	75.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Sudtirol corners (+1.5)	68.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Padova corners (+1.5)	65.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Sudtirol corners (-1.5)	34.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Padova corners (-1.5)	31.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Sudtirol corners (-2.5)	24.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Padova corners (-2.5)	21.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Sudtirol corners (-3.5)	16.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Padova corners (-3.5)	14.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	22.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	15.1%	13.8%	14.7%	0.94×	7.24
0-0	14.8%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.71
1-0	12.3%	11.5%	11.1%	1.04×	8.71
0-1	11.2%	11.5%	6.8%	1.68×	8.72
1-2	6.6%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-0	7.3%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-2	6.2%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.51
0-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	2.6%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	0.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2nd half DNB)	51.1%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Sudtirol (2nd half DNB)	48.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova leading at HT (DNB)	54.8%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Sudtirol leading at HT (DNB)	45.2%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw (1X)	69.1%	69.6%	74.5%	0.94×	1.44
Padova or Sudtirol (12)	66.2%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Sudtirol or draw (X2)	64.7%	63.7%	57.3%	1.11×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw at HT	78.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Sudtirol or draw at HT	73.5%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Padova or Sudtirol at HT	48.4%	51.3%	—	—	1.95

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw (1UP)	69.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sudtirol or draw (1UP)	64.7%	71.8%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova or draw in 2nd half	72.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Sudtirol or draw in 2nd half	71.1%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Padova or Sudtirol in 2nd half	56.6%	58.0%	—	—	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.0%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Neither half drawn	29.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (DNB)	53.3%	50.9%	62.6%	0.81×	1.96
Sudtirol (DNB)	46.7%	49.1%	37.4%	1.31×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score first	44.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Sudtirol to score first	40.8%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	14.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.55

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	57.9%	55.0%	46.1%	1.19×	1.82
Both teams to score	42.1%	45.0%	53.9%	0.83×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	51.9%	47.2%	37.9%	1.25×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	27.0%	33.3%	39.4%	0.85×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	15.1%	21.5%	14.7%	1.46×	4.66
Not both score & over 2.5	6.0%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.8%	89.0%	86.1%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.2%	11.0%	13.9%	0.79×	9.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.5%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.5%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	69.9%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Both score 2nd half only	18.1%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Both score 1st half only	9.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.61
Both score in both halves	2.3%	4.8%	—	—	20.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.0%	85.1%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	12.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	59.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	38.3%	35.0%	26.8%	1.31×	2.85
4-6 goals	14.3%	17.0%	23.5%	0.72×	5.90
7+ goals	0.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.52

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to score exactly 0	37.9%	35.9%	32.9%	1.09×	2.78
Sudtirol to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Sudtirol to score exactly 2	17.8%	19.5%	21.5%	0.91×	5.12
Sudtirol to score 3+	7.5%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.5%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Padova to score exactly 0	34.8%	32.6%	22.3%	1.46×	3.07
Padova to score exactly 2	19.4%	18.8%	25.9%	0.73×	5.32
Padova to score 3+	9.1%	10.4%	16.2%	0.64×	9.65

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	51.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Padova leading at HT	26.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Sudtirol leading at HT	21.9%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova -1: 2	64.7%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Padova -1: X	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Padova -1: 1	14.5%	14.0%	—	—	7.14

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:1)	64.7%	61.5%	57.3%	1.07×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.8%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Padova (0:1)	14.5%	13.7%	19.7%	0.70×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:2)	85.5%	87.1%	80.3%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	10.2%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.11
Padova (0:2)	4.4%	3.8%	6.7%	0.56×	26.65

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:3)	95.6%	96.6%	93.3%	1.04×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.99
Padova (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.81
Padova (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.88

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (1:0)	69.1%	70.2%	74.5%	0.94×	1.42
Draw (1:0)	19.0%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Sudtirol (1:0)	11.9%	12.7%	10.0%	1.28×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (2:0)	88.1%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.6%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.64
Sudtirol (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.72

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Halves equal	32.4%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
1st half highest scoring	25.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede	62.1%	63.6%	67.1%	0.95×	1.57
Padova clean sheet	37.9%	36.4%	32.9%	1.11×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 1st half	67.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Padova to concede in 1st half	32.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 2nd half	55.9%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Padova to concede in 2nd half	44.1%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 6.5 corners	81.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Padova over 2.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Padova under 5.5 corners	71.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Padova over 3.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Padova under 4.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Padova over 4.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Padova under 3.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Padova over 5.5 corners	29.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Padova under 2.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Padova over 6.5 corners	18.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 3.5 goals	97.7%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Padova under 2.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	83.8%	1.10×	1.09
Padova under 1.5 goals	71.6%	74.2%	58.0%	1.28×	1.35
Padova over 0.5 goals	65.2%	67.9%	77.7%	0.87×	1.47
Padova under 0.5 goals	34.8%	32.1%	22.3%	1.44×	3.12
Padova over 1.5 goals	28.4%	25.8%	42.0%	0.61×	3.88
Padova over 2.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	16.2%	0.48×	12.82
Padova over 3.5 goals	2.3%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.59

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 1st half	92.4%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Padova under 0.5 in 1st half	63.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Padova over 0.5 in 1st half	36.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Padova over 1.5 in 1st half	7.6%	5.3%	—	—	19.03

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova scores equally in both	45.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Padova scores more in 2nd half	32.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Padova scores more in 1st half	22.6%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.2%	51.4%	55.5%	0.93×	1.94
Sudtirol (home no bet)	47.8%	48.6%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova even goals	56.1%	55.3%	50.9%	1.09×	1.81
Padova odd goals	43.9%	44.7%	49.1%	0.91×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	43.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
HT 1-0	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	7.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.53
HT 2-0	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
Any other HT score	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	24.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Padova at HT / Padova at FT	19.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Sudtirol at HT / Sudtirol at FT	15.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Padova at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Sudtirol at FT	13.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Padova at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Sudtirol at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Padova at HT / Sudtirol at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
Sudtirol at HT / Padova at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.97

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score last	44.4%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
Sudtirol to score last	40.8%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	14.8%	9.9%	—	—	10.12

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	85.2%	90.9%	—	—	1.10
Padova to lead by 1 at any time	49.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Sudtirol to lead by 1 at any time	45.1%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	34.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Padova to lead by 2 at any time	18.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Sudtirol to lead by 2 at any time	15.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
Padova to lead by 3 at any time	5.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.14
Sudtirol to lead by 3 at any time	4.1%	1.6%	—	—	61.26

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol most corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Padova most corners	42.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.5%	83.4%	87.3%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
1-3 goals	70.5%	72.3%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
2-6 goals	61.2%	63.3%	72.0%	0.88×	1.58
2-5 goals	59.9%	59.1%	69.6%	0.85×	1.69
2-4 goals	56.2%	59.1%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.2%	53.2%	43.5%	1.22×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	32.5%	35.2%	46.3%	0.76×	2.84
3-5 goals	31.3%	35.2%	44.0%	0.80×	2.84
3-4 goals	27.5%	30.2%	38.7%	0.78×	3.31
4-6 goals	14.3%	14.8%	23.5%	0.63×	6.75
4-5 goals	13.0%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.75
5-6 goals	5.0%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.28
7+ goals	0.5%	2.5%	1.4%	1.86×	39.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova never behind	40.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Sudtirol never behind	36.1%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	45.9%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	54.1%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	40.2%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.3%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	85.3%	87.6%	75.2%	1.16×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	67.0%	66.3%	52.4%	1.26×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	61.7%	61.7%	73.2%	0.84×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	38.3%	38.3%	26.8%	1.43×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	33.0%	33.7%	47.6%	0.71×	2.97
Under 0.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Over 3.5 goals	14.7%	12.4%	24.8%	0.50×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	1.7%	4.6%	3.7%	1.23×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.5%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.2%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.9%	92.4%	89.3%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	82.0%	81.1%	67.9%	1.19×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	53.7%	51.9%	36.0%	1.44×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	46.3%	48.1%	64.0%	0.75×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	18.0%	18.9%	32.1%	0.59×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.1%	7.6%	10.7%	0.71×	13.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.8%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.5%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.6%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	79.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	56.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	43.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Over 1.5 in 1st half	20.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.4%	7.0%	—	—	14.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.8%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.7%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.2%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to score in both halves	85.8%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Padova not to score in both halves	83.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Padova to score in both halves	16.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.39
Sudtirol to score in both halves	14.2%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	42.1%	46.6%	53.9%	0.86×	2.15
Only Padova scores	23.1%	22.3%	23.9%	0.93×	4.49
Only Sudtirol scores	20.0%	22.2%	13.3%	1.67×	4.50
Neither team scores	14.8%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.7%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	23.5%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	18.3%	17.5%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	14.8%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	9.2%	7.6%	15.9%	0.48×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.7%	4.5%	5.4%	0.84×	22.34
6 or more goals	1.7%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	43.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
1 goal in 1st half	35.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	15.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
3+ goals in 1st half	5.4%	7.0%	—	—	14.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.2%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	31.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to win both halves	93.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Padova not to win both halves	92.1%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Padova to win both halves	7.9%	5.9%	—	—	17.09
Sudtirol to win both halves	6.3%	5.8%	—	—	17.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to win neither half	56.7%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Padova to win neither half	52.4%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Padova to win either half	47.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Sudtirol to win either half	43.3%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to win to nil	80.0%	78.2%	86.7%	0.90×	1.28
Padova not to win to nil	76.9%	78.1%	76.1%	1.03×	1.28
Padova to win to nil	23.1%	21.9%	23.9%	0.91×	4.57
Sudtirol to win to nil	20.0%	21.8%	13.3%	1.64×	4.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	33.8%	27.7%	31.9%	0.87×	3.61
Padova by 1	20.8%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Sudtirol by 1	19.0%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Padova by 2	10.2%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.51
Sudtirol by 2	8.6%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.90
Padova by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	6.7%	0.40×	36.84
Sudtirol by 3+	3.3%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.87