Palermo v Benevento — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.0%
- 2-0 10.1%
- 2-1 10.0%
- 1-0 8.9%
- 3-0 6.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | Under 2.5 | 42.4% |
| BTTS yes | 55.4% | BTTS no | 44.6% |
| Palermo 1+ | 86.7% | Palermo 2+ | 59.9% |
| Benevento 1+ | 62.5% | Benevento 2+ | 25.7% |
Expected goals 2.02 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Palermo carry the stronger rating, 1632 Elo against 1492.
- Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Benevento have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Palermo have an estimated 60.2% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 16.5% for Benevento. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.02 for Palermo and 0.98 for Benevento.
Why Palermo
Palermo carry the stronger rating, 1632 Elo against 1492. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Benevento can win
Away from home Benevento average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Palermo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Benevento, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Palermo: 52% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Benevento: 48% possession, 17.7 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Palermo are the model's most likely outcome at 60.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 38/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.02–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.21–0.89 | 2-0 11% | 60% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.