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Palestino v Everton de Viña del Mar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Palestino win
48.2%
model 46.7%
Draw
22.5%
model 21.0%
Everton de Viña del Mar win
29.3%
model 32.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 11.5%
  2. 1-1 9.8%
  3. 0-1 9.5%
  4. 2-1 9.2%
  5. 2-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.553.1% Under 2.546.9%
BTTS yes54.2% BTTS no45.8%
Palestino 1+79.0% Palestino 2+46.2%
Everton de Viña del Mar 1+71.1% Everton de Viña del Mar 2+35.2%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
2-5 goals
Multi goal · usually 64%
68.0% fair odds 1.47
moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Everton de Viña del Mar not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 83%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Palestino carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1530.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Palestino have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.3% for Everton de Viña del Mar and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Palestino and 1.24 for Everton de Viña del Mar.

Why Palestino

Palestino carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1530. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Everton de Viña del Mar can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Palestino, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Everton de Viña del Mar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Palestino: 61% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Everton de Viña del Mar: 50% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Palestino are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.5%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.56–1.24 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.44–1.15 1-0 13% 48% 50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to win 46.0% 47.4% 49.0% 0.97× 2.11
Everton de Viña del Mar to win 32.1% 30.4% 30.0% 1.01× 3.29
Draw 21.9% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino & not both score 26.4% 25.2% 26.8% 0.94× 3.97
Palestino & both teams score 19.6% 18.0% 22.4% 0.80× 5.56
Everton de Viña del Mar & not both score 18.2% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 16.5% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Everton de Viña del Mar & both teams score 13.9% 13.3% 13.4% 0.99× 7.54
Draw & not both score 5.4% 8.3% 4.9% 1.71× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino & under 3.5 33.5% 30.8% 34.1% 0.90× 3.25
Palestino & over 1.5 33.0% 30.8% 36.1% 0.85× 3.25
Palestino & over 2.5 25.2% 26.1% 29.3% 0.89× 3.84
Everton de Viña del Mar & under 3.5 24.6% 21.6% 23.4% 0.92× 4.63
Everton de Viña del Mar & over 1.5 21.4% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.63
Palestino & under 2.5 20.8% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 16.5% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Everton de Viña del Mar & over 2.5 16.4% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.8% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.8% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Everton de Viña del Mar & under 2.5 15.6% 18.0% 13.7% 1.32× 5.56
Palestino & under 1.5 12.9% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
Palestino & over 3.5 12.5% 12.8% 15.1% 0.85× 7.79
Everton de Viña del Mar & under 1.5 10.7% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Everton de Viña del Mar & over 3.5 7.4% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.2% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.2% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.4% 7.9% 4.9% 1.62× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (1UP) 60.1% 62.7% — — 1.59
Everton de Viña del Mar (1UP) 47.9% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (2UP) 46.0% 50.0% — — 2.00
Everton de Viña del Mar (2UP) 32.1% 30.2% — — 3.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to win 2nd half 36.4% 36.4% — — 2.75
2nd half drawn 35.1% 36.4% — — 2.75
Everton de Viña del Mar to win 2nd half 28.5% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.9% 84.3% — — 1.19
Everton de Viña del Mar under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.3% 52.3% — — 1.91
Everton de Viña del Mar over 0.5 in 2nd half 49.7% 47.7% — — 2.10
Everton de Viña del Mar over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.1% 15.7% — — 6.35
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.1% 82.2% — — 1.22
Palestino over 0.5 in 2nd half 56.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Palestino under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.0% 42.1% — — 2.38
Palestino over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.9% 17.8% — — 5.63
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (+2.5) 91.9% 92.1% 89.5% 1.03× 1.09
Everton de Viña del Mar (+1.5) 78.8% 78.5% 76.8% 1.02× 1.27
Palestino (+0.5) 67.9% 68.7% 70.0% 0.98× 1.46
Everton de Viña del Mar (+0.5) 54.0% 52.4% 51.0% 1.03× 1.91
Palestino (-0.5) 46.0% 47.6% 49.0% 0.97× 2.10
Everton de Viña del Mar (-0.5) 32.1% 31.3% 30.0% 1.04× 3.19
Palestino (-1.5) 21.2% 21.5% 23.2% 0.93× 4.65
Palestino (-2.5) 8.1% 7.9% 10.5% 0.75× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to concede 76.4% 78.7% 78.5% 1.00× 1.27
Everton de Viña del Mar clean sheet 23.6% 21.3% 21.5% 0.99× 4.70
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar clean sheet in 1st half 53.8% 50.9% — — 1.97
Everton de Viña del Mar to concede in 1st half 46.2% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to concede in 2nd half 56.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Everton de Viña del Mar clean sheet in 2nd half 44.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 6.5 corners 86.4% 85.2% — — 1.17
Everton de Viña del Mar under 5.5 corners 77.3% 76.0% — — 1.32
Everton de Viña del Mar over 2.5 corners 69.9% 67.6% — — 1.48
Everton de Viña del Mar under 4.5 corners 64.4% 61.7% — — 1.62
Everton de Viña del Mar over 3.5 corners 52.0% 53.1% — — 1.88
Everton de Viña del Mar under 3.5 corners 48.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Everton de Viña del Mar over 4.5 corners 35.6% 38.3% — — 2.61
Everton de Viña del Mar under 2.5 corners 30.1% 32.4% — — 3.09
Everton de Viña del Mar over 5.5 corners 22.7% 24.0% — — 4.18
Everton de Viña del Mar over 6.5 corners 13.6% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 3.5 goals 97.1% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Everton de Viña del Mar under 2.5 goals 89.1% 87.8% 88.3% 0.99× 1.14
Everton de Viña del Mar under 1.5 goals 68.3% 68.0% 68.5% 0.99× 1.47
Everton de Viña del Mar over 0.5 goals 68.2% 68.0% 68.5% 0.99× 1.47
Everton de Viña del Mar under 0.5 goals 31.8% 32.0% 31.5% 1.02× 3.13
Everton de Viña del Mar over 1.5 goals 31.7% 32.0% 31.5% 1.02× 3.13
Everton de Viña del Mar over 2.5 goals 10.9% 12.2% 11.7% 1.04× 8.21
Everton de Viña del Mar over 3.5 goals 2.9% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.82
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar under 1.5 in 1st half 92.2% 93.9% — — 1.07
Everton de Viña del Mar under 0.5 in 1st half 63.3% 63.3% — — 1.58
Everton de Viña del Mar over 0.5 in 1st half 36.7% 36.7% — — 2.72
Everton de Viña del Mar over 1.5 in 1st half 7.8% 6.1% — — 16.45
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar scores equally in both 42.7% 43.7% — — 2.29
Everton de Viña del Mar scores more in 2nd half 36.0% 37.3% — — 2.68
Everton de Viña del Mar scores more in 1st half 21.3% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (away no bet) 67.7% 66.4% 69.8% 0.95× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 32.3% 33.6% 30.2% 1.11× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar even goals 55.1% 56.9% 53.7% 1.06× 1.76
Everton de Viña del Mar odd goals 44.9% 43.1% 46.3% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.0% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.0% 12.1% — — 8.24
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 59.7% 60.6% — — 1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals 40.3% 39.4% — — 2.54
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 53.0% 50.9% — — 1.96
Palestino to score 2+ in a row 34.5% 29.0% — — 3.45
Everton de Viña del Mar to score 2+ in a row 23.9% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.8% 16.2% — — 6.19
Palestino to score 3+ in a row 11.7% 12.1% — — 8.24
Everton de Viña del Mar to score 3+ in a row 6.3% 5.5% — — 18.27
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino corners (+3.5) 92.4% 89.6% — — 1.12
Palestino corners (+2.5) 87.6% 84.5% — — 1.18
Palestino corners (+1.5) 81.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (+3.5) 69.3% 65.9% — — 1.52
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (+2.5) 59.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Palestino corners (-1.5) 51.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (+1.5) 48.5% 47.6% — — 2.10
Palestino corners (-2.5) 40.6% 42.8% — — 2.33
Palestino corners (-3.5) 30.7% 34.1% — — 2.93
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (-1.5) 19.0% 20.2% — — 4.94
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (-2.5) 12.4% 15.5% — — 6.45
Everton de Viña del Mar corners (-3.5) 7.6% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 42.0% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 28.5% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 78.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 71.5% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 68.6% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 62.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 58.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 52.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 47.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 42.0% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 37.3% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 31.4% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 28.5% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 21.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.9% 11.5% 13.2% 0.87× 8.71
0-1 10.7% 11.5% 10.2% 1.12× 8.72
1-1 10.3% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
0-0 5.4% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.51
2-2 5.1% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
0-2 4.9% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.29
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
2-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-0 3.8% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.29
3-2 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 2.2% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (2nd half DNB) 56.1% 59.4% — — 1.69
Everton de Viña del Mar (2nd half DNB) 43.9% 40.6% — — 2.46
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino leading at HT (DNB) 59.4% 55.8% — — 1.79
Everton de Viña del Mar leading at HT (DNB) 40.6% 44.2% — — 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino or Everton de Viña del Mar (12) 78.1% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
Palestino or draw (1X) 67.9% 69.6% 70.0% 0.99× 1.44
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw (X2) 54.0% 52.7% 51.0% 1.03× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino or draw at HT 77.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw at HT 66.5% 67.2% — — 1.49
Palestino or Everton de Viña del Mar at HT 56.3% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino or draw (1UP) 67.9% 76.4% — — 1.31
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw (1UP) 54.0% 58.8% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino or draw in 2nd half 71.5% 73.9% — — 1.35
Palestino or Everton de Viña del Mar in 2nd half 65.0% 63.6% — — 1.57
Everton de Viña del Mar or draw in 2nd half 63.6% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 65.7% 68.0% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 34.3% 32.0% — — 3.13
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (DNB) 58.9% 58.1% 62.0% 0.94× 1.72
Everton de Viña del Mar (DNB) 41.1% 41.9% 38.0% 1.10× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to score first 52.7% 53.3% — — 1.88
Everton de Viña del Mar to score first 41.9% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 5.4% 7.5% — — 13.32
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.0% 51.3% 48.0% 1.07× 1.95
Both teams to score 50.0% 48.7% 52.0% 0.94× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 41.8% 41.6% 38.0% 1.09× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 39.6% 38.5% 42.9% 0.90× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 10.3% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.2% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.6% 85.6% 84.6% 1.01× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.4% 14.4% 15.4% 0.94× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.9% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.1% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 61.0% 65.8% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 22.4% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 11.9% 10.7% — — 9.33
Both score in both halves 4.7% 5.0% — — 20.19
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.4% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.6% 16.5% — — 6.05
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 50.4% 52.5% — — 1.91
A half without a goal 49.6% 47.5% — — 2.10
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.8% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
0-1 goals 29.1% 26.6% 27.8% 0.96× 3.76
4-6 goals 24.4% 22.9% 26.8% 0.86× 4.36
7+ goals 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.39
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.78
Everton de Viña del Mar to score exactly 0 31.8% 33.8% 31.5% 1.07× 2.96
Everton de Viña del Mar to score exactly 2 20.9% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
Everton de Viña del Mar to score 3+ 10.9% 12.9% 11.7% 1.10× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to score exactly 1 34.1% 32.6% 31.7% 1.03× 3.07
Palestino to score exactly 2 24.6% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
Palestino to score exactly 0 23.6% 23.3% 21.5% 1.09× 4.29
Palestino to score 3+ 17.7% 18.8% 21.0% 0.90× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.7% 42.6% — — 2.35
Palestino leading at HT 33.5% 32.8% — — 3.05
Everton de Viña del Mar leading at HT 22.8% 20.4% — — 4.90
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino -1: 2 54.0% 52.2% — — 1.92
Palestino -1: X 24.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Palestino -1: 1 21.2% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:1) 54.0% 51.3% 51.0% 1.01× 1.95
Draw (0:1) 24.7% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.13
Palestino (0:1) 21.2% 24.2% 23.2% 1.05× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:2) 78.8% 79.4% 76.8% 1.03× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.1% 11.0% 12.9% 0.85× 9.10
Palestino (0:2) 8.1% 7.7% 10.5% 0.73× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:3) 91.9% 92.7% 89.5% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.27
Palestino (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (0:4) 97.5% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 4.1% 0.30× 81.76
Palestino (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (1:0) 67.9% 70.2% 70.0% 1.00× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 20.1% 21.7% 20.0% 1.08× 4.62
Everton de Viña del Mar (1:0) 12.0% 12.7% 10.2% 1.24× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino (2:0) 88.0% 88.5% 89.8% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.3% 6.4% 6.3% 1.01× 15.65
Everton de Viña del Mar (2:0) 3.7% 2.3% 4.1% 0.55× 43.69
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.9% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 28.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.6% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to concede 68.2% 66.7% 68.5% 0.97× 1.50
Palestino clean sheet 31.8% 33.3% 31.5% 1.06× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino clean sheet in 1st half 63.3% 63.2% — — 1.58
Palestino to concede in 1st half 36.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino clean sheet in 2nd half 50.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
Palestino to concede in 2nd half 49.7% 47.6% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino over 2.5 corners 86.5% 86.2% — — 1.16
Palestino over 3.5 corners 74.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
Palestino under 6.5 corners 65.1% 66.7% — — 1.50
Palestino over 4.5 corners 61.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Palestino under 5.5 corners 52.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Palestino over 5.5 corners 47.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
Palestino under 4.5 corners 38.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Palestino over 6.5 corners 34.9% 33.3% — — 3.00
Palestino under 3.5 corners 25.2% 28.1% — — 3.56
Palestino under 2.5 corners 13.5% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino under 3.5 goals 94.1% 92.2% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
Palestino under 2.5 goals 82.3% 82.2% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Palestino over 0.5 goals 76.4% 77.8% 78.5% 0.99× 1.29
Palestino under 1.5 goals 57.7% 58.7% 52.9% 1.11× 1.71
Palestino over 1.5 goals 42.3% 41.3% 47.1% 0.88× 2.42
Palestino under 0.5 goals 23.6% 22.2% 21.5% 1.04× 4.50
Palestino over 2.5 goals 17.7% 17.8% 21.0% 0.85× 5.62
Palestino over 3.5 goals 5.9% 7.8% 9.0% 0.86× 12.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino under 1.5 in 1st half 87.1% 90.1% — — 1.11
Palestino under 0.5 in 1st half 53.8% 50.7% — — 1.97
Palestino over 0.5 in 1st half 46.2% 49.3% — — 2.03
Palestino over 1.5 in 1st half 12.9% 9.9% — — 10.07
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino scores more in 2nd half 37.3% 38.1% — — 2.62
Palestino scores equally in both 37.3% 38.1% — — 2.62
Palestino scores more in 1st half 25.3% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar (home no bet) 59.4% 56.4% 58.6% 0.96× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 40.6% 43.6% 41.4% 1.05× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino even goals 52.8% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Palestino odd goals 47.2% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.7% 33.5% — — 2.98
HT 1-0 21.5% 24.4% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 15.9% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 9.3% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 6.5% 6.9% — — 14.56
Any other HT score 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 2-1 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino at HT / Palestino at FT 26.7% 27.3% — — 3.66
Draw at HT / Palestino at FT 17.0% 16.8% — — 5.97
Everton de Viña del Mar at HT / Everton de Viña del Mar at FT 16.4% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Everton de Viña del Mar at FT 13.6% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.0% 12.7% — — 7.89
Palestino at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.86
Everton de Viña del Mar at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% — — 28.89
Everton de Viña del Mar at HT / Palestino at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.96
Palestino at HT / Everton de Viña del Mar at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to score last 52.6% 52.1% — — 1.92
Everton de Viña del Mar to score last 42.0% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 5.4% 7.5% — — 13.32
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.6% 92.6% — — 1.08
Palestino to lead by 1 at any time 60.1% 61.1% — — 1.64
Everton de Viña del Mar to lead by 1 at any time 47.9% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.1% 39.3% — — 2.55
Palestino to lead by 2 at any time 27.2% 25.3% — — 3.96
Everton de Viña del Mar to lead by 2 at any time 17.1% 14.8% — — 6.75
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.0% 14.8% — — 6.76
Palestino to lead by 3 at any time 10.0% 6.7% — — 14.93
Everton de Viña del Mar to lead by 3 at any time 5.0% 6.6% — — 15.15
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino most corners 62.4% 60.6% — — 1.65
Everton de Viña del Mar most corners 27.5% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.8% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 82.5% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
2-6 goals 69.2% 68.8% 70.0% 0.98× 1.45
1-3 goals 68.5% 68.8% 66.3% 1.04× 1.45
2-5 goals 66.1% 68.8% 64.4% 1.07× 1.45
2-4 goals 58.8% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
1-2 goals 46.7% 48.4% 42.4% 1.14× 2.06
3-6 goals 46.2% 48.4% 50.7% 0.95× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.8% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
3-5 goals 43.0% 43.6% 45.1% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.8% 39.2% 39.0% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.4% 24.5% 26.8% 0.91× 4.09
4-5 goals 21.3% 24.4% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.4% 14.8% 12.0% 1.24× 6.76
7+ goals 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.05× 39.20
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino never behind 46.7% 56.7% — — 1.76
Everton de Viña del Mar never behind 34.5% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.1% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.9% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.1% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.9% 42.3% — — 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.0% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.0% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.2% 95.4% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 94.6% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.9% 87.6% 85.9% 1.02× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 73.9% 72.5% 71.0% 1.02× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 70.9% 72.5% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.2% 52.5% 47.1% 1.12× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 47.8% 47.5% 52.9% 0.90× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 29.1% 27.5% 27.8% 0.99× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 26.1% 27.5% 29.0% 0.95× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 12.1% 12.4% 14.1% 0.88× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 5.4% 7.7% 4.9% 1.58× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.8% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.8% 92.4% 91.4% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.0% 86.7% 83.4% 1.04× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.6% 67.5% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 62.2% 61.9% 65.6% 0.94× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 37.8% 38.1% 34.4% 1.11× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.4% 32.5% 38.1% 0.85× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.0% 13.3% 16.6% 0.80× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.2% 7.6% 8.6% 0.88× 13.21
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.5% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.1% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.3% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.7% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.9% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.5% 7.3% — — 13.63
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.2% 55.2% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.8% 44.8% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.4% — — 4.90
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 17.1% — — 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar not to score in both halves 81.7% 84.3% — — 1.19
Palestino not to score in both halves 74.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
Palestino to score in both halves 25.9% 26.1% — — 3.84
Everton de Viña del Mar to score in both halves 18.3% 15.7% — — 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 50.0% 50.7% 52.0% 0.98× 1.97
Only Palestino scores 26.4% 26.1% 26.8% 0.97× 3.84
Only Everton de Viña del Mar scores 18.2% 16.0% 16.8% 0.95× 6.23
Neither team scores 5.4% 7.1% 4.9% 1.46× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 23.6% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 23.1% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 14.0% 12.1% 15.1% 0.80× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 7.3% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.4% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.15
6 or more goals 4.8% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 37.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 33.7% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 19.4% 15.7% — — 6.36
3+ goals in 1st half 9.5% 7.3% — — 13.63
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.8% 44.8% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 21.4% 22.8% — — 4.38
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar not to win both halves 93.7% 94.2% — — 1.06
Palestino not to win both halves 88.2% 88.0% — — 1.14
Palestino to win both halves 11.8% 12.0% — — 8.32
Everton de Viña del Mar to win both halves 6.3% 5.8% — — 17.21
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino to win either half 58.1% 59.1% — — 1.69
Everton de Viña del Mar to win neither half 54.9% 54.4% — — 1.84
Everton de Viña del Mar to win either half 45.1% 45.6% — — 2.19
Palestino to win neither half 41.9% 40.9% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Everton de Viña del Mar not to win to nil 81.8% 83.1% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
Palestino not to win to nil 73.6% 75.3% 73.2% 1.03× 1.33
Palestino to win to nil 26.4% 24.7% 26.8% 0.92× 4.05
Everton de Viña del Mar to win to nil 18.2% 16.9% 16.8% 1.01× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Palestino by 1 24.7% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Draw 21.9% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Everton de Viña del Mar by 1 20.1% 24.1% 20.0% 1.21× 4.15
Palestino by 2 13.1% 11.8% 12.9% 0.91× 8.50
Everton de Viña del Mar by 2 8.3% 7.2% 6.3% 1.13× 13.91
Palestino by 3+ 8.1% 7.2% 10.5% 0.69× 13.91
Everton de Viña del Mar by 3+ 3.7% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 36.85
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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