Palmeiras v Coritiba — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Palmeiras

20:00 UTC

Coritiba

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 945h before kick-off

Palmeiras win

67.0%

model 66.6%

Draw

22.4%

model 20.7%

Coritiba win

10.6%

model 12.8%

672211

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.4%
1-1 9.8%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.7%
3-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.3%	Under 2.5	41.7%
BTTS yes	51.8%	BTTS no	48.2%
Palmeiras 1+	88.6%	Palmeiras 2+	63.8%
Coritiba 1+	57.6%	Coritiba 2+	21.2%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.86. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Palmeiras (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 49%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Coritiba not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1732 Elo against 1556.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palmeiras have an estimated 67.0% win probability, against 22.4% for the draw and 10.6% for Coritiba. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.17 for Palmeiras and 0.86 for Coritiba.

Why Palmeiras

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1732 Elo against 1556.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Coritiba can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Palmeiras, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Coritiba, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Palmeiras: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Coritiba: 41% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palmeiras's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Palmeiras are the model's most likely outcome at 67.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.4%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	672113	2.17–0.86	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	682012	2.25–0.85	2-0 11%	60%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win	68.3%	64.8%	48.9%	1.33×	1.54
Draw	19.8%	19.4%	27.3%	0.71×	5.15
Coritiba to win	11.9%	13.5%	24.0%	0.56×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & not both score	37.4%	33.3%	28.1%	1.19×	3.00
Palmeiras & both teams score	30.8%	29.6%	21.0%	1.41×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	20.8%	0.64×	7.53
Coritiba & both teams score	6.7%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	12.01
Draw & not both score	5.3%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.02
Coritiba & not both score	5.3%	8.3%	13.8%	0.60×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & over 1.5	58.9%	55.0%	36.7%	1.50×	1.82
Palmeiras & over 2.5	47.5%	45.1%	27.5%	1.64×	2.22
Palmeiras & under 3.5	39.0%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Palmeiras & over 3.5	29.3%	26.1%	12.2%	2.13×	3.84
Palmeiras & under 2.5	20.7%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	14.5%	12.8%	20.8%	0.62×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	14.7%	12.8%	20.2%	0.64×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.7%	12.8%	20.2%	0.64×	7.79
Palmeiras & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.63
Coritiba & over 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.63
Coritiba & under 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	18.6%	0.43×	12.63
Coritiba & over 2.5	7.3%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Coritiba & under 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	11.0%	0.44×	20.81
Coritiba & under 1.5	3.0%	4.8%	7.0%	0.69×	20.82
Coritiba & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1UP)	78.8%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Coritiba (1UP)	29.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2UP)	68.3%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Coritiba (2UP)	11.9%	14.0%	—	—	7.16

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win 2nd half	55.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
2nd half drawn	30.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Coritiba to win 2nd half	14.5%	11.5%	—	—	8.67

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.7%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Coritiba under 0.5 in 2nd half	60.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Coritiba over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
Coritiba over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.86

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.3%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.7%	26.0%	—	—	3.84

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (+0.5)	88.1%	88.5%	76.0%	1.16×	1.13
Coritiba (+2.5)	75.1%	78.5%	90.8%	0.86×	1.27
Palmeiras (-0.5)	68.3%	68.7%	48.9%	1.40×	1.46
Coritiba (+1.5)	54.4%	52.4%	76.8%	0.68×	1.91
Palmeiras (-1.5)	45.6%	47.6%	23.2%	2.05×	2.10
Coritiba (+0.5)	31.7%	31.3%	51.1%	0.61×	3.19
Palmeiras (-2.5)	24.9%	21.5%	9.2%	2.34×	4.65
Coritiba (-0.5)	11.9%	11.5%	24.0%	0.48×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba to concede	89.5%	86.3%	79.7%	1.08×	1.16
Coritiba clean sheet	10.5%	13.7%	20.3%	0.67×	7.33

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba to concede in 1st half	62.0%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Coritiba clean sheet in 1st half	38.0%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba to concede in 2nd half	72.3%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
Coritiba clean sheet in 2nd half	27.7%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba under 6.5 corners	88.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Coritiba under 5.5 corners	80.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Coritiba under 4.5 corners	69.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Coritiba over 2.5 corners	63.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Coritiba under 3.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Coritiba over 3.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Coritiba under 2.5 corners	36.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Coritiba over 4.5 corners	31.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Coritiba over 5.5 corners	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Coritiba over 6.5 corners	11.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba under 3.5 goals	98.9%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Coritiba under 2.5 goals	94.5%	92.4%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Coritiba under 1.5 goals	79.0%	76.3%	71.9%	1.06×	1.31
Coritiba over 0.5 goals	57.3%	59.4%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68
Coritiba under 0.5 goals	42.7%	40.6%	34.6%	1.17×	2.46
Coritiba over 1.5 goals	21.0%	23.7%	28.1%	0.84×	4.21
Coritiba over 2.5 goals	5.5%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.07
Coritiba over 3.5 goals	1.1%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.98

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba under 1.5 in 1st half	95.4%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Coritiba under 0.5 in 1st half	71.1%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Coritiba over 0.5 in 1st half	28.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Coritiba over 1.5 in 1st half	4.6%	4.1%	—	—	24.47

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba scores equally in both	50.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Coritiba scores more in 2nd half	30.8%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Coritiba scores more in 1st half	18.8%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (away no bet)	77.5%	73.6%	64.2%	1.15×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.5%	26.4%	35.8%	0.74×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba even goals	59.1%	57.0%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Coritiba odd goals	40.9%	43.0%	45.1%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.9%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.4%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras to score 2+ in a row	59.0%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Palmeiras to score 3+ in a row	30.3%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Coritiba to score 2+ in a row	13.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Coritiba to score 3+ in a row	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras corners (+3.5)	96.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Palmeiras corners (+2.5)	94.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Palmeiras corners (+1.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Palmeiras corners (-1.5)	73.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Palmeiras corners (-2.5)	65.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Palmeiras corners (-3.5)	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Coritiba corners (+3.5)	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Coritiba corners (+2.5)	34.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Coritiba corners (+1.5)	26.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Coritiba corners (-1.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Coritiba corners (-2.5)	5.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Coritiba corners (-3.5)	3.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	49.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
0-8 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	24.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	81.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	58.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 12.5 corners	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	34.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	18.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.4%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.72
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.50
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	13.7%	0.54×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.50
3-0	8.6%	7.4%	4.8%	1.56×	13.51
3-1	7.3%	7.4%	4.0%	1.87×	13.51
Any other score	7.9%	7.4%	2.5%	2.92×	13.51
0-0	5.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
4-0	4.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.29
0-1	3.0%	1.7%	7.0%	0.25×	58.30
0-2	1.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-2	3.7%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.30
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2nd half DNB)	79.3%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Coritiba (2nd half DNB)	20.7%	19.7%	—	—	5.07

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT (DNB)	80.0%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Coritiba leading at HT (DNB)	20.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1X)	88.1%	86.5%	76.0%	1.14×	1.16
Palmeiras or Coritiba (12)	80.2%	80.6%	72.7%	1.11×	1.24
Coritiba or draw (X2)	31.7%	35.2%	51.1%	0.69×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw at HT	87.4%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Palmeiras or Coritiba at HT	63.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Coritiba or draw at HT	49.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1UP)	88.1%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Coritiba or draw (1UP)	31.7%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw in 2nd half	85.5%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Palmeiras or Coritiba in 2nd half	70.0%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Coritiba or draw in 2nd half	44.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Neither half drawn	45.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (DNB)	85.1%	87.0%	67.1%	1.30×	1.15
Coritiba (DNB)	14.9%	13.0%	32.9%	0.40×	7.67

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score first	68.7%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Coritiba to score first	26.0%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
No goal scored	5.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.0%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.0%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.6%	41.6%	38.3%	1.09×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	30.7%	34.5%	38.9%	0.89×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	17.3%	21.5%	9.5%	2.26×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	13.7%	0.61×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.2%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.8%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.0%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Both score 1st half only	12.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.2%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.0%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.2%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	38.8%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.1%	49.7%	0.85×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.7%	30.7%	24.3%	1.27×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.7%	20.2%	25.7%	0.79×	4.94
7+ goals	3.8%	1.8%	0.6%	2.91×	54.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba to score exactly 0	42.7%	37.3%	34.6%	1.08×	2.68
Coritiba to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Coritiba to score exactly 2	15.5%	19.6%	19.0%	1.03×	5.11
Coritiba to score 3+	5.5%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score 3+	39.1%	35.6%	18.6%	1.92×	2.81
Palmeiras to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	27.1%	0.98×	3.77
Palmeiras to score exactly 1	23.7%	23.3%	34.3%	0.68×	4.29
Palmeiras to score exactly 0	10.5%	14.3%	20.3%	0.70×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT	50.4%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Draw at HT	37.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Coritiba leading at HT	12.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.19

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras -1: 1	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Palmeiras -1: 2	31.7%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Palmeiras -1: X	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:1)	45.6%	46.1%	23.2%	1.99×	2.17
Coritiba (0:1)	31.7%	30.1%	51.1%	0.59×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba (0:2)	54.4%	58.2%	76.8%	0.76×	1.72
Palmeiras (0:2)	24.9%	20.4%	9.2%	2.21×	4.91
Draw (0:2)	20.7%	20.3%	14.1%	1.44×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba (0:3)	75.1%	80.4%	90.8%	0.89×	1.25
Draw (0:3)	13.5%	10.0%	6.7%	1.50×	10.03
Palmeiras (0:3)	11.4%	9.9%	2.7%	3.68×	10.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba (0:4)	88.6%	92.0%	97.3%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.0%	4.6%	1.7%	2.64×	21.66
Palmeiras (0:4)	4.4%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1:0)	88.1%	86.1%	76.0%	1.13×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.1%	6.9%	14.6%	0.47×	14.48
Coritiba (1:0)	3.9%	3.3%	9.5%	0.34×	30.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2:0)	96.1%	96.8%	90.5%	1.07×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	6.2%	0.37×	43.65
Coritiba (2:0)	0.9%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede	57.3%	60.7%	65.4%	0.93×	1.65
Palmeiras clean sheet	42.7%	39.3%	34.6%	1.14×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 1st half	71.1%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Palmeiras to concede in 1st half	28.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 2nd half	60.0%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Palmeiras to concede in 2nd half	40.0%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 2.5 corners	94.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners	88.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners	80.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Palmeiras over 5.5 corners	71.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Palmeiras over 6.5 corners	61.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras under 6.5 corners	38.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Palmeiras under 5.5 corners	28.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Palmeiras under 4.5 corners	19.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Palmeiras under 3.5 corners	11.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.27
Palmeiras under 2.5 corners	6.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals	89.5%	87.3%	79.7%	1.10×	1.15
Palmeiras under 3.5 goals	81.0%	82.2%	94.3%	0.87×	1.22
Palmeiras over 1.5 goals	65.8%	67.9%	45.6%	1.49×	1.47
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals	60.9%	63.6%	81.4%	0.78×	1.57
Palmeiras over 2.5 goals	39.1%	36.4%	18.6%	1.96×	2.75
Palmeiras under 1.5 goals	34.2%	32.1%	54.4%	0.59×	3.12
Palmeiras over 3.5 goals	19.0%	17.8%	5.7%	3.12×	5.62
Palmeiras under 0.5 goals	10.5%	12.7%	20.3%	0.63×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 1st half	74.8%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 1st half	38.0%	35.4%	—	—	2.83
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 1st half	25.2%	20.6%	—	—	4.87

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras scores more in 2nd half	43.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Palmeiras scores equally in both	28.3%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Palmeiras scores more in 1st half	28.1%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	62.4%	60.0%	53.3%	1.13×	1.67
Coritiba (home no bet)	37.6%	40.0%	46.7%	0.86×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras even goals	50.6%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Palmeiras odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
HT 1-0	26.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 2-0	12.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 0-1	9.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 1-1	9.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	7.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.46
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras at HT / Palmeiras at FT	45.2%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Draw at HT / Palmeiras at FT	20.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Coritiba at HT / Coritiba at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Draw at HT / Coritiba at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Palmeiras at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Coritiba at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Coritiba at HT / Palmeiras at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Palmeiras at HT / Coritiba at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.75

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score last	68.9%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Coritiba to score last	25.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
No goal scored	5.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Palmeiras to lead by 1 at any time	78.8%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Palmeiras to lead by 2 at any time	51.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Coritiba to lead by 1 at any time	29.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	29.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Palmeiras to lead by 3 at any time	28.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Coritiba to lead by 2 at any time	7.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.91
Coritiba to lead by 3 at any time	1.5%	1.6%	—	—	63.20

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras most corners	80.4%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Coritiba most corners	13.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Corners level	5.9%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.7%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.5%	72.4%	81.7%	0.89×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.9%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.2%	59.1%	68.7%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.1%	59.1%	47.1%	1.25×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.5%	53.2%	43.0%	1.24×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	49.7%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.8%	35.2%	45.9%	0.77×	2.84
4-6 goals	33.7%	35.2%	24.3%	1.45×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.1%	30.2%	20.2%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.8%	11.3%	1.67×	5.31
7+ goals	3.8%	2.6%	0.6%	4.03×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras never behind	65.1%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Coritiba never behind	15.9%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.3%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.7%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.3%	82.3%	74.3%	1.11×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.8%	77.3%	88.3%	0.88×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.5%	61.7%	75.2%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	47.6%	1.23×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	52.4%	0.79×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	37.5%	38.3%	24.8%	1.55×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.2%	22.7%	11.7%	1.93×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.7%	17.7%	25.7%	0.69×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	4.8%	1.62×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.4%	86.7%	94.9%	0.91×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.2%	75.9%	64.9%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.6%	75.9%	86.5%	0.88×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.6%	51.9%	67.9%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.4%	48.1%	32.1%	1.50×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.4%	24.1%	13.5%	1.79×	4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.8%	24.1%	35.1%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.6%	13.3%	5.1%	2.59×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	0.7%	4.25×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.3%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba not to score in both halves	88.5%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Palmeiras not to score in both halves	55.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Palmeiras to score in both halves	44.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Coritiba to score in both halves	11.5%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.0%	53.8%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Palmeiras scores	37.4%	39.9%	28.1%	1.42×	2.51
Neither team scores	5.3%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.06
Only Coritiba scores	5.3%	7.1%	13.8%	0.52×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.4%	22.6%	26.8%	0.84×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.4%	17.5%	13.2%	1.33×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.4%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.8%	12.1%	7.1%	1.70×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	4.8%	1.60×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	14.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.8%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	16.9%	16.4%	—	—	6.09

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba not to win both halves	98.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Palmeiras not to win both halves	71.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Palmeiras to win both halves	28.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Coritiba to win both halves	1.9%	2.8%	—	—	36.03

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win either half	77.7%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Coritiba to win neither half	74.8%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Coritiba to win either half	25.2%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Palmeiras to win neither half	22.3%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coritiba not to win to nil	94.7%	92.1%	86.2%	1.07×	1.09
Palmeiras not to win to nil	62.6%	66.6%	71.9%	0.93×	1.50
Palmeiras to win to nil	37.4%	33.4%	28.1%	1.19×	2.99
Coritiba to win to nil	5.3%	7.9%	13.8%	0.57×	12.70

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras by 3+	24.9%	24.1%	9.2%	2.62×	4.15
Palmeiras by 1	22.7%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Palmeiras by 2	20.7%	24.1%	14.1%	1.71×	4.15
Draw	19.8%	17.1%	27.3%	0.62×	5.86
Coritiba by 1	8.1%	7.2%	14.6%	0.49×	13.90
Coritiba by 2	3.0%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.81
Coritiba by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.88